Invest in Real Estate? Are You Nuts?

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Nobody has to tell me that the real estate market is in a deep hole. My house has been on the market for months. Trust me, I know how bad things are.

We've had many lookers but no buyers, despite a whole string of price cuts from what we thought was a value price back in April. It's a really nice house in a really nice town, and two years ago it would have taken us a week, max, to get a serious offer.

I know I'm not alone -- lots of other houses in my area, and all across America, have been on the market for a long time. My misery has plenty of company.

It's ugly out there, and as the cracks in the economy grow more apparent, that ugliness is spreading to commercial real estate as well.

Retail chains -- from mall staples such as Talbots (NYSE: TLB) and Gap (NYSE: GPS) to big-boxers such as Pep Boys (NYSE: PBY) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD) -- have announced cutbacks and store closings in the past year. Layoffs in banks and law firms and other blue-suit businesses mean less demand for premium office space -- lots of leases won't be renewed, and many that are will bring in less money.

Things could still get a lot worse -- and when it comes to commercial real estate, it almost certainly will.

So, naturally, I'm suggesting that you buy.

Dude, what is wrong with you?
Nope, I didn't overdose on cold medicine this morning, and I haven't completely lost my marbles. I'll explain in a bit. But first, a quick crash course on REITs.

Real estate investment trusts are legal entities that own (surprise) real estate. Many have shares that are publicly traded on stock exchanges. By law, a REIT must distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders, and that law -- and the resulting fat dividends -- means that the best REITs are popular investments when things are good.

As we noted, however, things aren't good. As a category, REIT stocks have been sold off hard in recent weeks. Many REITs, including big names such as warehouse owners ProLogis (NYSE: PLD), have cut or suspended dividends. Others, including retail space owners General Growth Properties (NYSE: GGP) and Developers Diversified Realty (NYSE: DDR), have seen huge share-price drops as they've stumbled financially. Many investors have bailed out of REITs entirely.

Are you starting to see the opportunity yet?

Gems in the rubble
"Commercial real estate" as a broad category is headed for hard times. But within that broad category are some potential exceptions. Rental housing (all of those people who aren't buying my house have to live somewhere), self-storage, and health-care properties could hold their ground through the recession, and REITs holding those kinds of properties should be better able to sustain their dividends. To the extent that they were sold off with the more vulnerable REITs in recent weeks, they should also recover some of their value.

Finding the best of those REITs is the opportunity. But it's not an easy one to jump on directly. Understanding a big commercial real estate REIT involves understanding not just commercial real estate generally, but also business conditions in the subcategory and region(s) in which the REIT operates. It's a complicated challenge for those new to the sector.

Fortunately, hiring expert help is simple.

What to buy right now
Amanda Kish, our Foolish mutual fund guru, has been thinking about this challenge as well. In the new issue of the Fool's Champion Funds newsletter service, available online at 4 pm ET today, she explains the opportunity in more detail -- and she identifies three mutual funds that are well positioned to take advantage.

Actively managed mutual funds have their ups and downs, of course, but the best have veteran managers, low fees, and a track record of outperformance through a variety of market conditions. All three of the funds Amanda has looked at this month pass those tests with flying colors, and one in particular -- the third one listed in her article -- looks like a real winner to me.

Long story short, I think these funds are the best way to take advantage of this opportunity right now. Want to check them out? A free trial of Champion Funds is yours for the asking. In just a few seconds, you'll have a full 30 days of unlimited access to the service, with our compliments. There's absolutely no obligation to subscribe.

Follow along with the Global Gains team as they travel to key business centers in China to uncover the very best investing opportunities! Sign up here to receive their FREE dispatches from the road.

Fool contributor John Rosevear has no position in the stocks mentioned. Home Depot and Gap are Motley Fool Inside Value picks. Gap is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 26, 2008, at 5:40 PM, maxhoffa wrote:

    AGNC

  • Report this Comment On November 26, 2008, at 11:03 PM, TradingHOPE4ever wrote:

    Why do pundits try to pick bottoms on crowded shorts during every bear market rally?

    Before Equity Heads get too giddied up on this Shop Till You Drop XMass rally govie on the tube induced rally think about this:

    The DIP market is not working.

    We will have record corporate defaults.

    We have yet to have these defaults.

    If the DIP market does not work we will have liquidations.

    That will put massive pressure on asset values.

    Access to capital is either inflated or dead.

    These REITS rely on leverage and cheap capital for growth.

    We are in an era of delevering and expensive or no capital.

    So come on in! This is the BOTTOM! The credit market is HEALING/THAWING/LOOSENING UP.

    Who cares if the defaults on commercial real estate has only begun and the CMBX already spazed out!

  • Report this Comment On November 27, 2008, at 6:06 AM, TMFMarlowe wrote:

    TradingHOPE4ever, thanks for stopping by. I suggest you read my article again, because I think you might have missed my points. First, we're looking to segments of the CRE market that are shielded from many of those pressures and may actually benefit from a few. Second, we're not looking for growth necessarily -- though in sectors like self-storage and health care, we might well see some -- so much as we're looking for the ability to sustain dividends and some capital appreciation on oversold stocks, and we're looking to veteran fund managers to help us find all of that in a very, very tough corner of the market.

    I'm not picking bottoms, and I'm not naive enough to be fooled by bear market rallies. What I DO know is that anyone who -- right now -- is certain that they know how all of this is going to unfold is almost definitely wrong. Meanwhile, I'm keeping powder dry and buying absolute value -- the one thing I feel I CAN trust over time, no matter what Mr. Market does -- where I see it, and advising readers to do the same.

    John

  • Report this Comment On November 27, 2008, at 10:17 AM, ilansachs wrote:

    Any views on the us$ exchange to GB pounds, Euro in the next 12 months?

  • Report this Comment On November 29, 2008, at 9:14 AM, sarealtor wrote:

    Real Estate is great vehicle to build wealth. Especially more know that this is the best time to buy. You have to buy right and be willing to Rent if you would like to build wealth but overall it is a great vehicle to make dreams happen.

    San Antonio is one of the most Stable Real Estate Markets in the Nation where the Median Home Price is 149,000 and voted the friendliest city in US.

    This a great place to Buy or Invest in a Home. Look for Homes at

    http://www.sanantoniotxrealestateforsale.com/San_Antonio_Nor...

    or

    http://www.sanantoniotxrealestateforsale.com/

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