Don't Buy These Top-Performing Investments

After the carnage we endured in the market last year, investors are eager to get their portfolios and their dreams of retirement back on track. Unfortunately, if history is any guide, many of them will go about it exactly the wrong way -- by chasing performance.

While it may seem like an easy fix to identify which stocks or segments of the market have been outperforming lately, and throw your money at them in the hopes that they'll continue their winning ways, this is a surefire way of sandbagging your portfolio.

Chasing one's tail
Let's examine which investments have landed at the top of the charts so far in 2009. According to the Morningstar Principia database, the following five funds are at the top of the class:

Fund

Return*

ProFunds UltraSector Mobile Telecomm (WCPIX)

62.2%

ProFunds Internet Ultrasector (INPIX)

41.1%

Encompass (ENCPX)

38.6%

JP Morgan Russia (JRUAX)

37.7%

Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares (TYH)

37.4%

*Performance year to date through April 30, 2009.

Wow! Those are some pretty hefty returns. But before you go imagining ways to fit one of these highfliers into your portfolio, take a closer look at each of these funds. You'll find several reasons why they aren't appropriate for most investors.

First of all, the two ProFunds offerings and the Direxion ETF are leveraged funds, which offer investors a multiple of the index the funds are tracking. The ProFunds offer 150% of their respective indexes, while the Direxion fund offers 300% of the daily return of the Russell 1000 Technology Index! To me, that sounds more like gambling than investing.

In addition, with the possible exception of the Encompass fund, all of these options are very narrowly focused, investing in just one industry or one emerging economy. It's no surprise that funds like these land at the top of the performance charts -- they're also the most likely to land at the bottom of the charts next year. These risky, narrow funds are highly volatile. In fact, each of these five lost between 62% and 89% last year alone! Most investors don't have any need for narrowly focused investments like these. Fools should stick to well-diversified, broad-market options instead.

While the Encompass fund invests more broadly across the globe, it is highly concentrated, with more than 80% of assets in just three sectors, and 70% allocated to two countries. That means concentrated bets, which could sink the fund if they don't pan out. Furthermore, the fund is relatively new, with less than three years of a track record. That's a bit too soon to make a solid judgment call on the managers' long-term skills.

Lastly, as is typically the case with highly specialized funds, each of these top-performers is ridiculously expensive. Whereas the average mutual fund sports a 1.3% net expense ratio, these chart-toppers range in price from 1.48% to 2%! That's more than any investor should be willing to pay for the privilege of owning any fund, no matter how outsized the gains may be in any short-term period.

The cost of folly
While it can be incredibly tempting to chase returns, keeping a steady head as trends come and go is one of the key attributes of successful long-term investors. In fact, a study performed by the Financial Research Corporation (FRC) found that on a rolling return basis from January 1990 through March 2000, the average mutual fund's mean three-year return was 10.92%, while the average fund investor gained only 8.7% over the same period. The study attributes the difference to investors' habit of chasing performance, as measured by rising redemption rates and shorter holding periods.

A better way
So what does this all mean? Well, first of all, if you want to win at the investment game, you've got to move beyond short-term thinking. A longer-term, buy and hold focus is essential. You've got to look past the temporary ups and downs of the market and keep the long-run trajectory in mind.

Secondly, if you're shopping for mutual funds, make sure you're not using past performance as your sole criteria for selection. While it is perfectly OK to take longer-term performance into account, I would argue that it's more important to first find a fund with an experienced, long-tenured manager, low expenses, a consistent investment history, and solid performance in both good and bad environments. Once you've done that, see how it stacks up against its competitors' track records.

If exchange-traded funds tickle your fancy, make sure you stick to broad-market, well-diversified options like Spiders (AMEX: SPY  ) , Cubes (Nasdaq: QQQQ  ) , or iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB). And whatever you do, make sure you're not overpaying for ETFs -- buy the cheapest funds you can find that get the job done.

Of course, if you consider yourself a stock jockey, there's no better place to get investment ideas than from some of the brightest names in the business. For example, top manager Chris Davis of Selected American Shares (SLADX) is loading up on market leaders in the consumer goods areas, such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG  ) and Philip Morris (NYSE: PM  ) , as well as health-care giants Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) and Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP  ) , and drugstore CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS  ) .

To get even more of the inside scoop on what the industry insiders are buying right now, be sure to check out the Fool's Champion Funds investment service. With your free 30-day trial, you can get access to all of our first-rate fund picks, including those that are most likely to make you money now!

There are worthwhile ways of rebuilding your portfolio, but chasing performance isn't once of them. By choosing the right investments and sticking with them for the long run, you'll be ahead of the pack, instead of chasing others.

Amanda Kish heads up the Fool's Champion Funds newsletter service. At the time of publication, she did not own any of the companies mentioned herein. Pfizer is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Procter & Gamble is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. Philip Morris International is a Motley Fool Global Gains pick. The Fool owns shares of Procter & Gamble. The Fool's disclosure policy can't decide whether it'd rather be the chaser or the chasee.


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  • Report this Comment On May 20, 2009, at 8:09 PM, jbrt wrote:

    Seabiscuit in the Fifth

  • Report this Comment On May 22, 2009, at 4:32 PM, tomplfs wrote:

    I just started trading after retirement 6 months ago and I find the market is like the slot machines at a casino..Some days your lucky and some days your not.Some machines seem to be more lucky for you than others.Either way , it's hard to walk away when you know you should .

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