Wake Up, Select Comfort!

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Things have been as hard for Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS) lately as one of its Sleep Number air-chamber mattresses set on 100. Trust me, that's hard. The company posted tired second-quarter results Thursday morning, with net sales dropping 5% to $179 million. Net income came crashing down, off by 72% to hit $0.06 per share.

The culprit? A staggering 14% drop in same-store sales. New stores and e-commerce growth helped offset some of that slide, but there's just no denying that the company's signature mattresses aren't as popular as they used to be.

The company's financials have been in a funk since last year's disappointing third-quarter results, and the grass is looking a whole lot greener on the other side of the mattress tag. Just last week, rival Tempur-Pedic (NYSE: TPX) posted sales and earnings growth of 18% and 30%, respectively, during the same three months. Net sales also grew at Sealy (NYSE: ZZ) in its latest quarter, which ended in May.

Shareholders braced for another rough day got a reprieve, though. On a day when most stocks were opening lower, Select Comfort was trading 5% higher Thursday morning. The quarter itself was worse than analysts had been projecting, but the company is reiterating its full-year guidance. It still expects to earn $0.87 to $0.93 a share on net sales of $840 million to $860 million.

Fueled by optimism of favorable retail trends early in the current quarter, investors have decided to buy instead of cash out. Why not? At the midpoint of its profit outlook, Select Comfort is trading at just 18 times its guidance for the full year's bottom line.

That may not seem cheap for a company in decline, but Select Comfort doesn't see itself in the same unflattering mirror. It still expects to grow earnings at 20% annually once it gets past this rough patch. It is confident that its growth initiatives will pan out. If so, Select Comfort would be a bargain at 18 times depressed profits.

If not, let's see if we can somehow get that Sleep Number bed to go to 110. That would be really, really hard.

Select Comfort is a Motley Fool Hidden Gems newsletter recommendation. Take a 30-day free trial to see if the premium stock research service will bring you better returns.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz thinks that a good night's sleep is better than a balanced breakfast to start the day off right. He does own shares in Select Comfort. His Sleep Number is 35. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On July 26, 2007, at 3:05 PM, TMFBogey wrote:

    So the real question here is whether or not you believe Select Comfort's optimistic outlook. The "greater cockroach" theory of investing says that where there's one cockroach, there's likely several more in the woodwork you can't see yet. In other words, bad news doesn't typically come in "ones" with companies.

    A more important question is why they are seeing declining sales in an environment where their competitors are seeing business improve. Did total unit sales fall? Is this a price war situation?

    More research is needed! Off to CAPS!

  • Report this Comment On August 03, 2007, at 11:44 PM, selectuncomfort wrote:

    Based on my experience as a customer, I can guess what's wrong at Select Comfort. When my bed started sinking in toward the middle, I emailed the company and received what seemed to be a form response asking questions about the problem. After answering the questions, I heard nothing back. I'm also hearing that the warranty is complicated and not being honored. Could there be a basic design flaw in these beds?

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11/23/2009 4:01 PM
TPX $21.50 Up +0.64 +3.07%
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