This Is When You Sell

If you've been an investor for any length of time, you know that many events can cause a stock to drop: Bad earnings, analyst downgrades, interest rate rumors, short sellers -- the list goes on and on. But here's an event you may not have pegged as a cause for your stock's recent slide: Your CEO just bought a palatial new estate.

Alas, according to recent research by finance professors Crocker Liu and David Yermack, "Future company performance deteriorates when CEOs acquire extremely large or costly mansions and estates." Why? Because it signals entrenchment -- fat cats ready to rest on their laurels.

Not that there's anything wrong with that
While richly rewarded CEOs have come under fire of late, far be it from me to begrudge someone the opportunity to live large. Rather, the reason I find the Liu/Yermack study so interesting is that identifying engaged leadership is one of the best ways for individual investors to buy into the best-performing stocks of the next decade or more.

Indeed, many great-performing stocks of the past five years, including Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN  ) , Smith Micro Software (Nasdaq: SMSI  ) , and even Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) are run by dedicated founders/CEOs who own a slug of shares and have something to prove.

Still, I fully expect the leaders of each of these companies to someday move on, and when that happens, the entrepreneurial spirit that has spurred these mammoth gains will be gone as well.

What happens when zealots move on
For evidence of the consequences here, consider the cases of Dell (Nasdaq: DELL  ) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) . Michael Dell and Bill Gates, respectively, founded each of these companies and built them into global giants. As they saw their visions to fruition, early shareholders earned 20 to 200 times their money along the way.

But look at what's happened since Gates stepped down as CEO in 2000 and Dell in 2004. The stocks have stagnated.

While Dell recently stepped back into the CEO role of his company, Gates announced that he will be stepping down entirely from a full-time role at Microsoft to focus on his work at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This, of course, is wonderful news for Gates, his wife, the foundation, and the people the foundation will help -- but not so much for Microsoft shareholders.

Contrast that situation with that of another stock that's been stagnant recently: Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A  ) (NYSE: BRK-B  ) . As the Liu/Yermack study notes, Buffett continues to live in the Omaha house he purchased in 1958 for $31,500. Moreover, when it came time for Buffett to give some of his fortune away, he announced that he would donate it to the Gates foundation rather than set up his own foundation. This, in other words, is a founder/CEO still focused on his work.

The Foolish bottom line
Engaged and entrepreneurial CEOs are among the best friends that the individual investor has in the marketplace. Of course, home purchases or new endeavors aren't the only indicators of a CEO who is no longer fully focused -- and that's why you need to keep tabs on the leadership of your companies as closely as you do the financials.

At our Motley Fool Hidden Gems small-cap investing service, we believe that the leadership effect is even more amplified when it comes to small companies. And when you combine great leadership with a wide market opportunity, you have the opportunity for huge returns.

These are precisely the situations we search for at Hidden Gems, and the strategy has helped us beat the market by 24 percentage points since 2003. If you'd like to see the stocks we're recommending today, you can join Hidden Gems free for 30 days. There is no obligation to subscribe.

This article was first published on April 17, 2007. It has been updated.

Tim Hanson owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway and Wynn Resorts. The Motley Fool owns shares of Berkshire as well. Dell, Microsoft, and Berkshire Hathaway are Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations. Dell, Apple, and Berkshire are Stock Advisor picks. The Fool's disclosure policy is the one who wants to be with you. Deep inside, it hopes you feel it, too.


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  • Report this Comment On March 27, 2008, at 12:09 PM, kennorian176 wrote:

    Charlie still lives in the same house he first bought after his second marriage some 30+ years ago.

    Also Buffett's donation to the Bill and Melinda Gate's foundation came only after the Gates established a ten year record (so much for your own start up).

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