Why These Stocks Didn't Burn Me

Recs

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In "These Stocks Will Burn You," I cautioned against getting too excited about the potential for making millions in small-cap stocks. Not because small companies lack the chance for big gains; I could give you any number of examples that have scored big, such as eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) and SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK). Up 152% and 212%, respectively, over the past 10 years, a $10,000 investment in each of those would have you sitting on more than $50,000 right now.

No, my warning was simply to let you know that with such high potential reward comes high risk. It's one of the laws of investing, one we teach about constantly in our Motley Fool Hidden Gems small-cap investing service. You need to do all you can to avoid having a stock or two inflict years' worth of damage on your portfolio.

So how can we Fools reduce the risk involved while still keeping the potential reward high enough? First, we can pay attention to the balance sheet, and stay away from companies that are overleveraged with debt and burning through lots of cash. In my original article, I recommended sticking with profitable companies with cash-to-debt ratios of at least 1.5. That became particularly important with the recent financial meltdown, which devastated overly leveraged businesses.

Second, we can buy two, three, or even more of these small fries with the same amount of cash we'd normally allocate to one position. If $6,000 is all you're comfortable allocating to a "normal" stock purchase, try buying three small caps you like at $2,000 apiece. That way, if one crashes to earth and loses half its value, your portfolio won't be too harmed by it.

For example
A good example comes from the small caps I've bought from the recommendations in Hidden Gems. I bought Buffalo Wild Wings, Cutter & Buck, and Ctrip.com. Cutter & Buck, a Tiny Gems micro-cap recommendation, was down 25% for me before it was bought out by a Swedish firm. However, I'm also sitting on current gains of 37% in Buffalo Wild Wings and 90% in Ctrip. If we assume (for simplicity's sake) a $2,000 investment in each, my $6,000 would have turned into $8,035: a nice 34% gain, despite Cutter & Buck's quarter "haircut."

Of course, larger companies can be volatile and burn you as well: Consider that Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) lost 60% or more in the great Tech Wreck of 2000. And we scarcely need to mention companies that have been taken down by the financial crisis, including "blue chips" like Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), AIG, Washington Mutual, and Citigroup (NYSE: C). But you must be especially on your guard with small caps.

How to get small
Despite the risks, the promise is there -- and we actively encourage you to make small caps a part of your portfolio, especially if you have a few years to go before retirement. If you need help separating the wheat from the chaff, and you want to find out which five small companies our analysts suggest you buy now, consider a trial run with Hidden Gems. Here's more information on a no-risk free trial.

This article was originally published on Dec. 5, 2006. It has been updated.

Rex Moore is a Fool analyst and looks great in flannel. He owns shares of Buffalo Wild Wings, Ctrip.com, and eBay. Buffalo Wild Wings and Ctrip are Hidden Gems selections. eBay is a Stock Advisor selection. The Fool owns shares of Buffalo Wild Wings. This information is brought to you by the Fool's disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2008, at 6:11 PM, rogandantiques wrote:

    Oh great. Here's a guy who advocates it's ok to lose 1/3 of your investment.

    Bet he loves Ebay stock right now, it has been in a downward spiral since January, and the current low in the $12 range does not reflect the current market problems, but rather the poor management at Ebay and their irresposible choices in customer relations.

    Thousands of their user base (both buyers AND sellers) have migrated to more responsible sites, taking their money, goods, and expertise with them. Too bad the author of this article views Ebay as an investment of ANY kind, but then that's what he's PAID to tell you.

    Think for yourselves, folks, look at the ebay discussion boards and see what the truth is at the grassroots level, not what some tout tells you.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2008, at 10:44 PM, Clint35 wrote:

    Rex didn't say he lost 1/3 of his investment. He said of the 3 small caps he invested in, one of them didn't turn out so well. That doesn't mean he owned three small caps and nothing else. And the authors here don't get paid to tell us anything, except their educated opinions. As far as E-Bay hitting a new low is concerned, look around that's happened to a lot of companies over the past year or so. If you think the writers here are so bad why do you come here? Oh, I see, to put links to your websites up. Free advertising. Pretty lame. Keep collecting antiques, I'll keep investing. I'm willing to bet I'll be better off than you 20 years from now. By the way, you know we're in a recession right? Do people buy antiques in a recession? Probably not as often as they go to Buffalo Wild Wings.

  • Report this Comment On November 12, 2008, at 8:33 AM, rogandantiques wrote:

    If the whole point was to put links up, I wouln't need to say anything at all. But like you, I'm allowed to voice my opinion. Ain't America great?

    I'm not too worried about twenty years from now, I'm already old. Ten years, maybe. You go ahead and invest in dead chickens, I'll do what I like.

    www.rogand-antiques.com

    www.antiques.collectibles.ecrater.com

  • Report this Comment On November 12, 2008, at 9:06 AM, ocdgirl2000 wrote:

    Anyone who paid $1.89 up through $9.00 a share is still doing OK. I wouldn't pay any more than $5 a share for this stock, and I think it will tank out to that price at the rate the core is deteriorating. Since the core is 70% of the marketplace, and it is being totally mismanaged, the new CEO will eventually be booted out. If people are forgiving enough to come back when the guy leaves, perhaps there is a chance for a come-back. At this point in time, I would still not buy the stock, and if you paid more than $10 for it, it's too late to sell. You might as well stick around for another 10 years and pray someone will take the company back to where it once was.

    I feel sorry for the folks who paid more than it is now..they are losing their shirts.

    Any fool can see that retail is a down market. Used, second-hand, consignment, and re-cycled thrift have increased at a rate of 66%.And those were the bulk of ebay before they were forced out by the management. Now, the thought is going backwards, instead of "forwards" per Mr. Donahoe.Retail is in trouble, so they are not the folks that need to be attracted to being sellers on ebay.

    Duh. Fire Donahoe.That's the only hope they will have in the short run.

  • Report this Comment On November 12, 2008, at 9:53 AM, BuhByeeBay wrote:

    eBay has been in decline since their peak in 2005 and a rapid decline since October 2007 which I might add, Meg Whitman unloaded quite a bit of stock at that point. April 2008 began the death spiral for eBay. All one has to do is look at the stock chart. The only way this chart would look good for eBay is if it were a ski slope.

    You simply cannot snub your nose at your bread and butter without consequences. eBay has shunned the heart and soul of their own company and have erected a wall between itself and it’s core customers of such magnitude it makes the great wall of China look like a nursery rhyme.

    No..... I’m afraid this company has seen it’s best days. In fact, I’m surprised that they’ve made it as far as they did and I accredit this borrowed time to the sellers determination trying in vein to make “IT” work while in such hostile territory.

    I urge anyone thinking of investing in this company to get the story from the real people, the sellers who are out in the field everyday doing what it takes trying to keep their businesses alive, all the while knowing that every “disruptive and innovative” change eBay makes brings them one step closer to the bone yard.

    Are you going to get the story from behind the desk or from ground zero?

    Visit Seller Central: http://forums.ebay.com/db2/forum.jspa?forumID=143

    Watch the stock drop simultaneously with the changes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbwuZ84cz0M

  • Report this Comment On November 12, 2008, at 1:41 PM, rogandantiques wrote:

    I see someone is sophmoric enough to remove any posts they don't agree with. Kind of defeats the purpose of a discussion board if the only opinion permitted is your own, Huh?

    See, domestic terrorism at it's best, only at the Motley Fool. Yes ladies and gentlemen, cowardice is alive and well right here in America, where people silence anything they disagree with. Kinda like Da 'Guvment.

    www.rogand-antiques.com

    www.antiques.collectibles.ecrater.com

  • Report this Comment On January 12, 2009, at 2:25 PM, simonkathrein wrote:

    Personally, I would wait until i'm deep in an uptrend and confidence is back in the market before going full steam with something like this. The market is so unstable right now that everything can drop like a rock at a moments notice.

    I found a link for some excellent free market charting tools i've been playing with to help make that determination. Check it out if you want!

    http://stockcapitalist.com/2009/01/charts-charts-and-more-ch...

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