Nuance Dances With Wolves

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This economic environment may be oppressive, but it's not the end of the world. A few companies are still managing to see profitable growth. All you need is great management, a solid product portfolio, and about six flavors of diversification. Then you're ready to tangle with a tough crowd of competitors, no matter what.

Nuance Communications (Nasdaq: NUAN) has all of those ingredients, and it finished off its 2008 fiscal year with a bang. The speech-recognition and digital-image-conversion specialist reported $253 million of fourth-quarter revenue, 41% above the year-ago total. $0.09 of GAAP earnings per share put last year's $0.02 loss per share to shame.

Management gave credit for the strong performance to disciplined expense controls and to great diversity across "industries, solutions, geographies and customers." Let me tell you, that sort of balanced performance doesn't happen by accident -- and when it happens, you're usually looking at an undisputed leader in its field. Networking giant Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), for example, likes to shine a spotlight on its balanced diversity. So does IBM (NYSE: IBM), and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is easing into a similar slot.

Nuance is much smaller than any of the behemoths I just listed, of course, but it's the top dog in speech recognition nonetheless. The company has been the global distributor of IBM's ViaVoice product for several years, and the fact that Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) ships Windows Vista with built-in voice recognition is clearly not stopping Nuance's growth.

The company acknowledged the tough economic environment and its effect on the enterprise software market, but because Nuance's products "offer significant cost savings and ROI," the company tends to do OK in hard times. The stock chart backs this up -- Nuance rebounded very quickly after the popping of the tech bubble in 2001.

I'm not saying that Nuance is perfect by any means. There's about $900 million of long-term debt on the balance sheet versus just around $261 million in cash, which is hardly ideal in the midst of a worldwide credit crunch. But this is still a well-run company with attractive products and a severely depressed share price that looks ripe for a massive rebound.

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Nuance Communications is a Motley Fool Hidden Gems selection, and Microsoft is a Motley Fool Inside Value pick. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Anders Bylund owns shares in Google, but he holds no other position in any of the companies discussed here. You can check out Anders' holdings or a concise bio if you like, and The Motley Fool is investors writing for investors.

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  • Report this Comment On December 04, 2008, at 8:45 PM, Tetschner wrote:

    Nuance profit is a 1-time event.

    After years of loses, Nuance finally reported a quarterly profit. They claimed that it was caused by cost cutting and efficiencies gained from recent acquisitions which improved their GM operating expenses. When you look closely at their numbers, it becomes quite clear that what actually caused this was a surge in their license revenue from Q3 to Q4. It jumped 30.5% (29.4 million) from the previous quarter. Contrast this with the Professional Services, subscription and hosting that grew only 7.6% (6.3 million) from Q3. Nuance has made it clear that they will greatly expand their services business. This means that the high-margin product license revenue will decrease as a proportion of the total and the Nuance profit will disappear permanently. Where did the huge jump in product license revenue come from? When questioned on this, Ricci claimed that it came from the newly released DNS product and embedded license sales. This answer seemed like a stretch since the total DNS revenue was $22 million and no reason exists for any increase in revenue from the automobile and cellphone area. In any event, high-margin license revenue accounting for almost 50% of the Nuance revenue is unsustainable in the future and Nuance is virtually certain to return to reporting quarterly losses. Nuance also has $1.7 million in Good Will that needs to be written down in order to bring it to current market value. As these write-offs occur in future quarters, expect to see huge losses.

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