It takes a seismic shift to flip a runaway energy bull market completely onto its backside.
Fools eager to ascertain when the sector might start heating up again could keep an eye on Dawson Geophysical (Nasdaq: DWSN ) for clues. This company knows a thing or two about interpreting data, and its recent earnings release provides a 3-D image of an industry in the process of rebalancing supply and demand.
Dawson reported flat earnings of $7.7 million for the fiscal first quarter of 2009, on a 3% rise in revenue. EBITDA managed a 7% increase, but the quarter overall exhibits a seismic shift compared with the 29% earnings growth the company reported back in fiscal Q4 2008.
Responding to leaner times, Dawson announced a 25% reduction in operations by idling as many as four of the 16 active seismic survey crews. With some larger projects facing scaledowns and delays, and some being canceled outright, the move is only prudent, given the prevailing indications from natural gas producers. Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK ) , Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN ) , and EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG ) have each idled rigs and scaled back production targets in response to continued weakness in natural gas prices and demand.
Dawson Geophysical is hardly the only energy services provider feeling the pinch. The Oil Service HOLDRS Trust (NYSE: OIH ) exchange-traded fund, heavily weighted in large-cap names such as Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB ) , remains more than 60% below its 52-week high. For sheer upside potential over the long term, however, I continue to recommend Dawson Geophysical, even during these tumultuous times.
Fellow Fool Dave Smith prefers Dawson's marine-based competitor CGG Veritas (NYSE: CGV ) , noting its sizable backlog and earnings that seemed undeserving of the stock's continued punishment. Back on dry land, Dawson gets my vote by virtue of its smaller size, adaptable business structure, and splendid balance sheet.
With a market capitalization of just $135 million, Dawson retains the kind of under-the-radar growth potential that caught the eye of our stock-picking team at Motley Fool Hidden Gems. With no long-term debt, $40 million in available credit, and about $2 per share in cash, the company appears well-positioned for the downturn. Given its adaptability -- seismic crews can be reactivated nearly as easily as they're idled -- I believe Dawson Geophysical will indeed prove to be a gem. I've just added the company to my CAPS portfolio, and I invite you to do the same.