Panera's Burnt Toast

• Report this Comment On April 29, 2009, at 4:00 PM, catoismymotor wrote:

  I have read a couple of reports that state that we have too many restaurants for the population and economic climate to support. I can see where Yum Brands, McDonalds and the like that offer value for the dollar would be reasonably okay investments. I don't understand why any one would put money into PF Chang’s, Cheesecake Factory, Buffalo's Wild Wings (no offense) and Panera Bread. I like and even enjoy their offerings. But to feed a family of four at those places would set one back possibly $75, without tip and dessert. Granted, Panera is not that bad, but when compared to Subway or Quizno’s it is. People are eating in more to save money or make ends meet therefore slashing the profits of those companies. People still want to go out, and will, but not as often as once was possible. I see this as a long term trend.

• Report this Comment On April 29, 2009, at 9:19 PM, freddenge wrote:

  Worst call for 2009!

  Maybe Lomax would rather sit at a cold aluminum table at Chipotle or McDonald's but I prefer the warm atmosphere, hot soup, and great bread at Panera.

  Earnings were strong. They "low balled" the guidance but the pullback was overdone. This will be a great year for Panera and the stock.

  Fred

• Report this Comment On May 04, 2009, at 6:28 PM, reeshau wrote:

  Full disclosure: I own Panera, and because it's mentioned, Cheesecake Factory, too.

  I think Panera is very misunderstood. I have visited many diffferent stores, in many states, and see one common thread: lunch. That's right, lunch. It's that simple. Panera's core audience is the lunchtime business crowd. Everywhere I go, even in recession-stricken Michigan, Panera is hopping at lunch. And I'm not talking business crowds meaning cubicle dwellers from office towers (or, not only them) but small businesspeople. Everywhere I go, every time I go, I see multiple business meetings going on in Panera. Investment advisors, Inventors, advertisers, beauty shops, lawn care--you name it. Panera is the cheapest office space you can get, even if you are buying coffees and sandwiches.

  There are many details that go into targeting this market. Certainly, one of Panera's best early choices (and Starbucks' biggest mistakes in missing it) is free Wifi. Panera also seems to be more comfortable, and more respectable, than other fast food places. So, if you are currently running your business out of your house, you can gain some respectability by suggesting "hey, let's meet at Panera." I'm not claiming to know exactly why, but I certainly don't see this type of activity at Quizno's or Subway.

  Ever since the failure of the Crispani pizzas, dinner is becoming an afterthought for Panera. If you want to verify this, check out the soup list on any given evening. You see, they pull the soups off the menu as they run out of them--and they may run out as early as 6pm. I have yet to see a Panera open up a new bag of soup during a dinner service. So, Panera is not the first place to worry about whether or not families are eating out for dinner. Everyone is welcome, but dinner is basically leftovers from lunch.

  Rather, Panera is focusing on breakfast. I have mixed feelings about the current breakfast menu, but I am all for the focus on breakfast. The early hours are one of McDonald's secret weapons. In addtion to diners eating in, Panera does tremendous to go business in the morning. I have walked into stores to find the entire order counter filled with large bags to go, no doubt to fuel some kind of workshop or meeting. This is all great business to increase sales without having to increase store size.

  Now, Panera has had a good run. I dont expect it to skyrocket from here, but I think it's far from the edge of a cliff. With a smart management that knew to hedge raw materials before it became cool (and expensive) they will survive the recession just fine, and have plenty of room to go. As the CEO told Cramer last week, look at the map of the US, and where Panera is. They still have the coasts to conquer! There is plenty of room to grow with this one.

• Report this Comment On June 11, 2009, at 6:45 AM, thisislabor wrote:

  I still can't figure out why cheesecake went down to 5$ a share 6 mos ago either but it did.

  only i can figure is that really nasty chart they included in their form 10k that showed declining profit (or was it revenue?) over like that last 5 years and statements of them taking on 250m in debt on same page right next to each other. scare tactics? thats all i can come up with. when i go into a cheesecake factory there is always people, perhaps not packed but always people.

Add your comment.