You Are Bold, Buffalo Wild Wings

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There were some bold tidings to spice up Buffalo Wild Wings' (Nasdaq: BWLD) first-quarter results, but apparently investors weren't too terribly impressed, judging by the stock's fall today.

First-quarter net income surged 30.1% to $8.5 million, or $0.47 per share. Total sales jumped 35.3% to $131.6 million. Even more impressive, same-store sales surged 6.4%. The company reiterated its 2009 goals for 25% revenue growth and 20% to 25% earnings growth.

If investors are choking a bit on the spicy tidings, part of that might be fears about the company's aggressive expansion plans. In the press release, CEO Sally Smith said that the company's on track to open more restaurants before the end of the third quarter this year than it did in all of 2008. Meanwhile, the second quarter will include additional expenses related to the "accelerated opening schedule."

With many retailers and restaurants cutting back on growth (or closing stores altogether, such as Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), for example), Buffalo Wild Wings' plans certainly don't sound conservative in light of the economic climate. In fact, you might call those plans a little wild and crazy.

For the last several quarters, I've wondered about Buffalo Wild Wings' plan to so aggressively open stores, but I've also had to ponder the opposing thought that, when all is said and done, it might turn out that the company was "crazy like a fox." It's a daring move, but it may turn out to be darn smart to expand and grab market share from rivals when most companies are pulling back (or suffering -- look at the difficulties that have charred restaurant companies like Ruth's Hospitality (Nasdaq: RUTH) and its high-end steaks).

Still, Buffalo Wild Wings' stock, which has surged by about 70% over the last three months, looks awfully pricey, even though the company continues to show impressive growth. The stock's trading at about 28 times trailing earnings, and while I can see the argument for paying a premium price for such stellar growth, at the same time, other solid performers are trading at far cheaper multiples. Take, for example, McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), which is trading at just 14 times trailing earnings (and pays a dividend to boot).

I thought Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) (NYSE: CMG-B) shares looked a little too pricy last week, too; although it does sometimes make sense to pay a premium for good growth prospects, there is a risk -- especially in this climate -- that investors may get heartburn from bold and spicy stocks.

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Buffalo Wild Wings and Chipotle Mexican Grill are Motley Fool Hidden Gems selections. Chipotle Mexican Grill is also a Rule Breakers selection. Starbucks is a Stock Advisor recommendation and an Inside Value pick. The Fool owns shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Buffalo Wild Wings, and Starbucks. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Alyce Lomax owns shares of Starbucks. The Fool has a disclosure policy, but it will never disclose how it felt after trying the Blazin' sauce from Buffalo Wild Wings.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On April 29, 2009, at 5:19 PM, wolfhounds wrote:

    While I rec'd this article and have held the stock from $23, I'm concerned with rising costs. Wings increased over .40/lb in the 1st qtr, and continue to rise. Management, according to the transcript, more than offset those costs with other cost reduction. But labor and wing costs continue to rise, as does performance based compensation. Analysts may look past these as one time items, but these costs seem to be rising faster than same store sales.

    2nd qtr same store sales projections may have sent the stock lower. This may explain no increase in yearly growth despite a stellar 1st qtr. All things considered, I'd like to see the stock come down to the low 30's before being comfortable with adding to my position.

  • Report this Comment On April 29, 2009, at 5:20 PM, bigpeach wrote:

    I truly don't understand the surge in this stock's price, or the larger surge in casual dining. Growing or not, some of the valuations being assigned to these stocks are insane in my opinion. BWLD has a P/E now of around 30. CMG is even worse at 35. They may keep growing and expanding earnings, but they just don't seem investable at this point.

  • Report this Comment On April 30, 2009, at 8:09 AM, NoEmotions wrote:

    BWLD is a great stock. I bought it at $30 so I've taken some profits but still have my core initial purchase value. If it was a dividend stock I might not have taken profits.

    At any rate, I probably will add to my position later if the price drops. It is a well managed company with a good product and it is a stock that I would recommend for purchase if the price dropped to $36. (My 2 cents).

  • Report this Comment On April 30, 2009, at 1:17 PM, Rediggles wrote:

    The appropriate method of valuation for this stock is discounted cash flow. Thus, this stock is not pricey. Ms. Lomax, by the way, the phrase is "dumb like a fox". If Tom Gardner's original thesis was based on BWLD getting to 1000 restaurants, then why would rapid growth when we're only at the 500 or so mark be a cause for concern? And how could you not mention how many B-Dubs there are in Ohio alone? That's the key to this stock. The Ohio Number.

  • Report this Comment On May 05, 2009, at 5:06 PM, rfaramir wrote:

    Googling the two choices defends Alyce: 8,820 hits for "dumb like a fox" (including a 1941 cartoon short) versus 162,000 hits for "crazy like a fox" (including a 1984 TV series).

    Both mean basically the same thing, seemingly crazy or stupid behavior which is really very cunning. But Alyce chose the more widely used expression.

    And as far as BWLD's behavior, economically speaking, I think if they are getting really good commercial real estate prices for their new stores right now in this downturn, it is indeed brilliant; assuming they didn't jump the gun and prices don't continue to plummet.

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12/1/2009 1:22 PM
CMG-B $84.62 Up +1.51 +1.82%
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN G… CAPS Rating: *****
BWLD $40.11 Up +0.17 +0.43%
Buffalo Wild Wings CAPS Rating: ***
MCD $63.85 Up +0.60 +0.95%
McDonald's Corp CAPS Rating: ****
SBUX $21.94 Up +0.04 +0.18%
Starbucks Corp CAPS Rating: **
RUTH $2.12 Down -0.05 -2.30%
Ruth's Chris Steak… CAPS Rating: ***
CMG $85.18 Up +1.73 +2.07%
Chipotle Mexican G… CAPS Rating: ***

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