These Are the Market's Biggest Opportunities

• Report this Comment On August 14, 2009, at 4:27 PM, spokanimal wrote:

  In the markets, fear creates distortions that defy reality. Panic creates severe distortions.

  Subprime mortgages had a much lower non-performance record than the market gave them credit for when they were beaten down to 20-cents on the dollar... then there was no market at all.

  Fear of bankruptcy sent MGM and Las Vegas Sands down to ridicuously low valuations that were totally disconnected from the true risk of insolvency.

  Even today, most analysts and columnists prefer to protect their reputations by going the safe route and recommending Wynn over Sands even though the later company has assets that are much better positioned for future EBITDA performance.

  Fear creates opportunities. Panic creates fortunes.

  But you have to be willing to follow the sage words of Baron Rothschild who famously said:

  "Buy when there's blood in the streets"

  Spokanimal

• Report this Comment On August 14, 2009, at 6:14 PM, DiscoFinance wrote:

  There is a DVD movie out about the whole Sirius XM/Mel K. story called: Stock Shock.

  Very good flick and explains stock market manipulation as well. Stock Shock is at amazon.com and stockshockmovie.com

• Report this Comment On August 15, 2009, at 10:18 AM, TMFEditorsDesk wrote:

  @spokanimal:

  Interesting thoughts. I think something a lot of us forget to do is properly classify our holdings. As we've seen this past year, there's nothing worse than buying something you think is safe and finding out it isn't. On the flip side is buying something that is risky but has a lot of upside when it really doesn't b/c the upsdie's priced in is also a disaster.

  Thought question for the group...of these companies, which do you think has the highest upside for the risk taken:

  Bank of America

  Citigroup

  MGM

  Las Vegas Sands

  Sirius XM

  -Anand (TMFBomb)

  PS...a little tidbit...apparently, the original quote was a little longer and even more poignant: "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."

• Report this Comment On August 15, 2009, at 1:02 PM, JibJabs wrote:

  Bank of America may have a very bright future, imo.

• Report this Comment On August 16, 2009, at 7:59 AM, TMFEditorsDesk wrote:

  The opposite question may be useful, too...which has the most risk vs. upside?

  -Anand (TMFBomb)

• Report this Comment On August 16, 2009, at 10:45 AM, plange01 wrote:

  the only stock her with upside now is c .it can easily double then double again in a year or less....

• Report this Comment On August 16, 2009, at 1:36 PM, TMFEditorsDesk wrote:

  @plange01,

  Why Citi and not BAC? Is it a quality of assets vs. market value argument?

  -Anand (TMFBomb)

• Report this Comment On August 16, 2009, at 11:32 PM, 8Lives wrote:

  What's wrong with betting on CIT, instead of C ??

  Can someone tell me why there seems to be such a distiction between these two investment opportunities?

• Report this Comment On August 17, 2009, at 1:56 PM, BigVincent wrote:

  The company that has the greatest risk to upside (or reward), is definitely sirius/xm radio. You have a company that owes almost 8 billion not including interest. Annually the company needs roughly 1.7 billion just to function, and the rest goes to paying debt. The greatest risk to this company is it's subscribers. That happens to be what drives the greatest fear to this company is if it can hold on to it's subscribers during this recession. The company has proven that with strict discipline and consolidating the 2 synergies of sirius and xm, that the company can continually generate revenue, and in fact increase its revenue, even when there are subscriber losses. On AVG the company generates roughly 2.8 Billion annually so the company can function, but can the company pay for its debt on time without having to sell off its assets, or filing bankruptcy. I think after some restructuring,and paying less on programming contracts ( Howard Sterns contract is up in 1 year from now) this company will generate alot of cash after EBITDA.

  I have alot on the line with sirius/xm. I even gambled a few thousand shares at .6 cents in February. So far this company has not let me down or the majority of investors that have invested up to the last .50 cents.

  Management has definitely stepped up a much more aggressive approach to increasing revenue streams.The content offered isn't bad either. With some adjustments sirius/xm is going to possibly be a hot stock for 2010. We just have to see if cash for clunkers really helped this company through out 2009.

• Report this Comment On August 18, 2009, at 1:40 PM, TMFEditorsDesk wrote:

  @8Lives,

  One distinction to note between C and CIT is that one was deemed too big to fail while the other was not. That doesn't necessarily make one a better investment than the other, but it's an important distinction.

  -Anand (TMFBomb)

• Report this Comment On August 25, 2009, at 12:16 PM, AlexisMachine wrote:

  I have alot on the line with sirius/xm. I even gambled a few thousand shares at .6 cents in February. So far this company has not let me down or the majority of investors that have invested up to the last .50 cents.

  You should consider yourself a privleged member of an exclusive minority who has not been let down by investing in this blackhole that should force this company to change it's name to Vortex in the name of giving fair warning to all capital investments: Abandon all hope, ye who enters here.

  excepting the majority of investors that have invested up to the last .50 cents. Or to put this in perspective the minority of the minority of recent investors who account for less than .001% of the whole group of investors this company has had. Of the .001% the small percent of whom can count themselves amongst the majority of investors who invested up to the last .50 cents. The 99.9999% of us who missed out on that window of oppurtunity have come to understand that Sirius/xm is where wealth goes to vanish. I cannot emphasize my advice to those of you who have found yourselves in the investors who have not been let down by Sirius/Xm, yet. SELL MORTIMER, SELL SELL but that is asking you to learn from my mistakes, instead of having to learn from your own and if your like most people you'll see no wisdom in learning from my mistakes when you can continue puting your money down the garbage disposal that is Sirius/Xm. You'll show me a thing or two once the glory days return.

  Ahh the return of the glory days, anyone who owned shares of Sirius over the last decade will have fond memories of the glory days that where always in the rear view window for the investor regarless of when he took the plunge and paid the piper for doing so. The $69.00 days of 2000,$25-10 days of 2001-2002, The $4-7 days of 03-05, or the $4-2.50 ones 2006-2007, then there is the $3.00-.15 cents of 2008. The first quarter of 2009 looked like just the right time to come to the party further review reveals that this stock has a 10 year history of each year tantalizing starry eyed investors whose thinking was like the ones initiated the year before and so on and so on. We all had in common those glory days of Sirius stock prices to look back on the vetrans who had been around the longest had tales of $100 a share always further away in the rear view mirror. While dreaming of seeing it just over over the next horizon, the only thing to see over the horizon was the Rump, who came along every few years.

  The only thing that kept this company from being a worse investment than turing a -90% + capital loss for most of us into oblivion, was it's knack for finding another wealthy Rump with more cash than sense looking to wrack up a few million in capital losses for tax purposes and away we would on our long and downward journey with Sirius. Steadily on down as far as the Rumps cash infusion took us before it too had been ground into bonemeal.

  The familiar scenario played out as before with the gas gauge long on E and the warning light alerting us of mere fumes left in the tank, the engine sputtering and just as it seemed over, salvation. Yet another Rump with a suitcase full of cash was just in time to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, The rump never realizing at the time that the insolvency of Sirius/xm and liquidation of assets would have meant his suitcase full of money, instead of the rolls of options to buy Sirius/Xm that they had Charmin make for them in pallets. The rolls were hung everywhere so they could just wheel it of the roll in sheets whenever another creditor willingly proved P.T. Barnums theory on suckers to correct. The first quarter of 2009 saw prices so low that this had to be the right time to join the party, unless in honor of tradition the company fizzled out like the bad fart it always was. It almost did and if you owned it then you know that it lives on today thanks to one last Rump whose destiny is sealed like the Rumps before him his capital won't be worth a popcorn fart when this is all over, mark my words.

Add your comment.