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These Pros Aren't Scared of Obamacare. Why Are You?

When I'm searching for investment ideas, I always like to pick the brains of the world's "superinvestors," and there's no better way to get an idea of their convictions than to look at the largest holdings in their portfolios. As I began rummaging through the holdings of a few of my favorite gurus, I found something surprising. Several of these folks like health-care stocks -- a lot. To give you an idea of the level of their commitment, check out this chart:

Manager

Fund

% of Portfolio
in Health Care

Bruce Berkowitz

Fairholme Fund

41%

Robert Bruce

Bruce Fund

27%

Committee managed

Dodge & Cox Stock

25%

Ron Muhlenkamp

Muhlenkamp Fund

22%

Data provided by Morningstar.

My first thought was: "These guys have to be crazy. Haven't they heard the talking heads on TV arguing that Obamacare will destroy the health-care sector?" Then the contrarian in me started to become intrigued. Is it possible that if my initial reaction to health-care stocks is to throw up in my mouth, then other investors were having the same spasmic reaction, thus creating short-term opportunity?

I'll take the cash
So, many of you may be wondering, what could these superinvestors be seeing that the rest of the market is missing?

Bruce Berkowitz, whose Fairholme Fund has beaten the market by more than six percentage points annually over the past five years, gave us a good look at his reasoning during a recent Forbes interview. There he reveals one of his favorite metrics, free cash flow (FCF) yield, which is calculated by dividing free cash flow per share by the current share price. FCF yield shows the amount of cash that an investor can expect a business to generate for every dollar invested.

Berkowitz likes companies that sport double-digit free cash flow yields. He also tries to determine whether the earnings are sustainable and analyzes how well management is using that cash.

If you look at the five health-care companies that make up more than a quarter of Berkowitz's portfolio, you see two things in common: FCF yields above 10% and highly respectable return on invested capital (ROIC).

Company

FCF Yield

ROIC
(3-Year Average)

Market Cap
(in Millions)

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  )

15%

15%

$112,306

Forest Labs (NYSE: FRX  )

12%

27%

$8,737

WellPoint (NYSE: WLP  )

10%

10%

$26,028

Humana (NYSE: HUM  )

13%

15%

$6,744

UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH  )

13%

19%

$33,234

Data provided by Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

What the ...
Did you notice that two of these companies are health insurers? Doesn't he know that Obamacare will bankrupt all the insurers? What is he thinking?

I'll tell you what. While Congress and the president call each other liars, and town halls are filled with infuriated citizens, several top investors are seizing this opportunity. Many investors are acting as if proposed legislation will drastically cut into the business of all health-care companies, but that's unlikely to be the case for a few reasons:

  • Uncle Sam can't do it all. Many of the products and services that these companies provide cannot be replicated without spending an absurd amount of money or confiscating intellectual property.
  • We're not getting any younger, or thinner. An increasingly obese and aging population will require more health services and medication.
  • Americans don't like being put on a wait list. Or sitting in waiting rooms for that matter. A growing population will put significant strains on the current system unless capacity increases.

Now, don't get me wrong. I also believe that there is too much waste in the system, and that cuts will be made that impact these businesses. However, it's unlikely that these blows will be as large as these companies' low valuations reflect. While the current political storm may appear precarious for the health sector, long-term demographic trends are strongly in its favor.   

The small of it
The companies listed above are all huge corporations with heavy analyst coverage. If they are so cheaply valued -- as suggested by their large FCF payout ratios -- just imagine the dislocations that are taking place in the underfollowed companies you find in small-cap land. Many of these smaller companies dominate their respective niches, yet their share prices have suffered along with the rest of the sector.

Let's take a look at a few small-cap health-care stocks that fit the criteria we mentioned above.

Company

FCF Yield

ROIC
(3-Year Average)

Market Cap
(in Millions)

IMS Health

18%

30%

$2,834

Amedisys (Nasdaq: AMED  )

16%

13%

$1,206

inVentiv Health (Nasdaq: VTIV  )

15%

11%

$578

Data provided by Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

IMS Health is a leading provider of sales and patient data to the pharmaceuticals industry. Its proprietary information helps Big Pharma get the most bang for its R&D buck. inVentiv provides sales, staffing, and communications services to pharmaceuticals companies and counts all 20 of the biggest drugmakers as its clients. Amedisys helps provide at-home care to chronically ill and aging patients. These are all companies that are essential to the development and delivery of health services, and they can't be replaced easily. 

Berkowitz, Bruce, Dodge & Cox, and Muhlenkamp are apparently taking advantage of an opportunity to buy health-care stocks on the cheap. Likewise, we believe that this health-care fiasco has led to some severe, temporary mis-pricings. In fact, we've recently added inVentiv Health to our Motley Fool Hidden Gems real-money portfolio. The Hidden Gems analyst team is focusing its efforts to identify more small, beaten-down health-care gems. If you want to see more names like these with great businesses at bargain prices, you can take Hidden Gems for a free 30-day test-spin. Click here to get started -- there's no obligation to subscribe.

Already a Hidden Gems subscriber? Log in here.

Jeremy Myers is an analyst for Motley Fool Hidden Gems and owns shares of Fairholme. Fairholme, Dodge & Cox, and Muhlenkamp are all Motley Fool Champion Funds selections. inVentiv and UnitedHealth Group are Motley Fool Stock Advisor selections. Pfizer, WellPoint, and UnitedHealth Group are Motley Fool Inside Value picks. inVentiv Health, IMS Health, and Muhlenkamp are Motley Fool Hidden Gems recommendations. The Fool owns shares of inVentiv Health, Fairholme, Dodge & Cox, UnitedHealth Group, and IMS Health. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 22, 2009, at 5:50 PM, brownwn wrote:

    This article seems to mix political commentary with investment discussion. Being a consumer concerned about paying for an unknown new entitlement is far different from investigating companies for investment possibilities.

  • Report this Comment On September 22, 2009, at 6:02 PM, plange01 wrote:

    i doubt anyone is afraid of obama care even though this plan was slapped together in a about a week.the problem is why is he wasting time on healthcare plans with the country over 9 months into a depression....

  • Report this Comment On September 22, 2009, at 6:09 PM, deadlysaber wrote:

    The president's lack of transparency and detail coupled with the government's long history of profligate entitlement spending makes it easy to understand why Americans are reluctant to buy into the president's program, especially when the reform narrative keeps changing. The original priority was to insure the 47 million uninsured, but quickly turned to overhauling our entire healthcare system, one that according to polls satisfactorily serves 75 percent of the 250 million insured. Called out by protesters at the prospect that taxpayer money would subsidize healthcare for illegals, the president changed his tune and referred to 30+ million uninsured and assured us that illegal aliens will not be insured under his program.

    Originally, healthcare reform was going to be substantially paid for with cuts in Medicare and new taxes on the wealthy. Seeing backlash from seniors probably led the president to rethink that approach and definitively say that there will be no Medicare cuts to pay for Obamacare. The president is now saying that half the costs of Obamacare can be paid for by eliminating the waste, fraud and inefficiency from the existing system. That's a difficult one to swallow especially knowing that one of the House proposals calls for 53 new government bureaucracies to be created under Obamacare!

    -----------------------------

    Money without intelligence is like a car without a road.

    http://www.intelligentinvestingtips.com

  • Report this Comment On September 22, 2009, at 6:51 PM, sabertoothtiger wrote:

    I'm not scared of "Obamacare" but I don't think I would invest in Health Insurance companies at this point. If the public option is included in the plan it could at least temporarily cut into their profits.

  • Report this Comment On September 22, 2009, at 8:29 PM, fisherdoc wrote:

    Few will argue our health care system is in dire need of comprehensive reform and improvement. The US spends per capita, more than any other industrialized country, by far, and with inferior results by many measures of effectiveness. As the debate and legislative process continue to reform our health care system it is critically important to identify and address the real problems. It is true, many ills need remedies. Nobody would argue two of the most important are extending coverage to the uninsured and insurance reform. But there are many other modifications that are nearly as important for repair of the system, including investing in the physician workforce, providing long-term fixes to flawed physician payment formulas, increasing the nation's focus on preventive care and wellness initiatives, and simplifying administrative burdens for patients and physician. However even the best laid plan that addresses these issues perfectly will NOT rescue the tightening financial spiral this country is facing with health care.

    There exists a public sense of entitlement that unlimited health care is a basic and even inalienable right that all should have. This is attractive but not entirely correct and certainly not practical. Health care is a highly specialized service provided by dedicated and highly trained professionals. Advocating universal basic medical care is an attractive, even moral position, but not all medical and scientific possibilities are widely applicable or feasible for widespread application. Furthermore, limitless spending is irresponsible. There are very REAL costs that must be acknowledged and paid for. Currently, these costs are escalating beyond the capacity of our country to pay for and will certainly continue to do so as the population ages and the work force diminishes.

    It is indeed simply imperative to face perhaps the biggest single basic problem with the American health care system to day: Too much money flowing into the health care system does not go to pay for health care at all. This is not just an efficiency issue. The plain truth is that an increasingly large portion of every health care dollar, is siphoned off for corporate profits, the massive infrastructures that generate them, Wall Street giants who demand profits, and the protection of health care practitioners from frivolous legal attacks. Wall Street is very good at generating profits, but is very unproven when it comes to delivering health care. None of them has directly ever provided a single dime’s worth of health care to anyone.

    As a practicing physician, business owner, and head of a family household that pays for its own health care, I have a practical and clear view of the problems most pressing to the health care industry. Many days I feel crushed from all directions by the corporate health care mess. All the legislation in the world will not fix our health care system unless the core problems are addressed: In no particular order of importance, these are:

    1. Employment-Based Insurance. It is quite simple. Uncouple health insurance from employment. This immediately accomplishes several things. First, you don’t have to have a job to be insured. Second, the PATIENT, NOT THE EMPLOYER, becomes the customer. At this time, managed care designs primarily packages for employers who have many potential patients (read: expenses), NOT the patient. Cheap plans are preferred because the costs are lower for those trying to profit. A more diverse marketplace will force insurance providers to diversify their offerings and design better packages for patients. Third, it allows large American companies to compete effectively with countries that have nationalized health care by eliminating the burden of providing insurance from large, and especially those small businesses that really cannot afford to do so.

    2. Tort reform. Other than paying for employee benefits (the largest of which is health care), medical malpractice is the largest single expense for virtually all practicing physicians. This is an absolute necessity to accomplishing reform and controlling costs. Yes, even the best physicians have the threat of lawsuit in the back of their minds and defensive medicine is a necessity in the current medicolegal environment.

    3. Insurance Reform. I have no problem whatsoever paying providers for the health care I receive, but I have a major philosophical problem paying for health care that is NEVER received. To put it plainly, the insurance industry STRIP-MINES the American health care system and citizens who must pay for it. Both patients and providers are treated terribly by these for-profit giants whose primary aim is to make a profit. They do so by DENYING many legitimate claims and instating a series of roadbocks and hurdles to payment. Consider this: health care corporations are among the consistently most profitable companies in the world. To make it worse, these middlemen does provide NO health care, rather they skim the profits of denying care to themselves and their investors. This increases costs massively without delivering one dime’s worth of care. Insurance reform needs to happen now or nothing will be accomplished. This is really the crux of the American health care problem. Patients need to be able to have affordable insurance without denial. Risk stratification pools can still occur, but insurability, portability and affordability must be assured. Barriers to denial of care must be enacted These changes are necessary for the protection of all citizens, are long overdue and can be easily legislated. Increasing competition among insurers is also critically necessary, as there is little reason for large insurers, who have near-monopoly status in many states, to change. Eliminating state boundaries for insurance purchases would open up this market and drive down costs immediately.

    4. Enact a no-fault health insurance system, with INDIVIDUAL accountability and government enforcement; which will have the effect of establishing universal coverage. This should not be a single payer or single provider system, but rather an ala car system that permits choices and options while providing a basic minimum standard of care. Universal coverage will eliminate the practice of cost shifting, which is so damaging to uninsured individuals and families, and drives up the cost of care for those who are insured. The government’s role best role in all of this should be to make sure that all pay their fair share for their health care. The tax system can be used to enforce the principle of taking health care responsibility into individual hands. For example, citizens could be offered a potential tax credit for heath care expenditures. Each tax deadline, citizens must show proof off insurance in order to claim this credit, similar to having to show proof of auto insurance to license a car. If not, the tax credit cannot be claimed. This could allow the government to collect and pay for a public plan those who choose to be uninsured will, by default, participate in. Is this fair? I would argue it can be designed fairly, with various tax brackets prorated to pay more or less, incentives, etc, But EVERYONE has to pay something and EVERYONE has to be accountable. This is the essence of the start of changing peoples’ behaviors. If your bad health habits start to cost YOU money, you are much more motivated to change them.

    5. What about a safety net for those who cannot get currently get or afford insurance? Many, such as Medicaid, already exist. Contrary to popular belief, a safety net does not necessitate a single public health system. While a well designed publicly subsidized health insurance option could be a valuable adjunct to private health care insurance choices, a single payer system is a radical change that is probably undesirable for many reasons. In particular, it would eliminate free market competition for cost and quality and generally be cost inefficient as a delivery vehicle.

    It is critical that the Congress focus on the issues and core problems that create our health care system’s ills. Take the time to do it correctly. Otherwise much can be legislated but little will be accomplished and nobody will really be any better off.

  • Report this Comment On September 23, 2009, at 1:22 AM, mlaursen wrote:

    We don't even know what "Obamacare" is going to be.

  • Report this Comment On September 23, 2009, at 10:39 AM, Huayra wrote:

    It seems many Americans are very afraid of healtcare reform, although they seem to be aware to both the costs are not sustainable for the future and that it is an outrage that the former superpower in this world has so many uninsured.

    I hear about opponents of President Obama plan saying that America currently has the best healtcare in the world, better then Canada or European countries, but like a lot of things in your country it seems to be put in place with (future) debt that needs to be paid and cannot last.

    Our healthcare in the Netherlands is very much like what your current administartion is proposing, not government run, but insurance run with strict government guidelines. Your new setup seems to be more focused on the insurance companies, but because their are less guidelines on what care for what price, they are proposing a government option or co-op.

    It's never perfect, but we have good coverage for all people at premiums less then Americans currently have to pay and no person will ever go bankrupt due to illness. There are some things government really need to handle and healtcare is the most important. Regardless taxes will have to go up in your country and in most countries and hopefully a good solution can be found for the current and future debt issues without compromising necessary government services to a very unacceptable extend.

    But it is clear that the ways of the past cannot be the way of the future. You cannot loan or leverage yourself out of anything without paying the price like we have seen. Easy money doesn't exist and every services, especially healthcare, has a price. A price people should be willing to pay.

  • Report this Comment On September 23, 2009, at 12:21 PM, ozzfan1317 wrote:

    I question why anyone would fight or fear change when that change is an attempt to improve something that cant get much worse.

  • Report this Comment On September 23, 2009, at 6:25 PM, rovobo wrote:

    I FAIL TO SEE HOW ANYONE THINKS THAT HEALTH CARE BASED ON FOR PROFIT INSURERS CAN MATCH WHAT IS PROVIDED BY PROGRAMS SUCH AS MEDICARE.ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT IT HAS SAVED ME FROM GOING BANKRUPT AND GIVES ME PEACE OF MIND THAT MY WIFE CAN SURVIVE ON MY PASSING,AT THE COST OF INJECTING POLITICS INTO THIS MATTER ALL THE THINGS THAT HELP LOWER &MIDDLE INCOME PEOPLE WERE

    AND ARE FOSTERED BUY THE DEMOCRATS.SOCIAL SECURITY,MEDICARE,MEDICAID,UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS

  • Report this Comment On October 09, 2009, at 2:21 PM, TMC42 wrote:

    Very insightful article.

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