Chipotle: Hot or Not?

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Chipotle's (NYSE: CMG) (NYSE: CMG-B) third-quarter financial results looked pretty tasty. But the stock's drop last week suggests that they still weren't spicy enough for some investors.

The burrito chain reported that net income surged an impressive 76.9%, to $34.5 million, or $1.08 per share. Revenue increased 13.8% to $387.6 million, and same-store sales increased 2.7%. Even those relatively modest gains are no small feat in the current economy. In more happy news, restaurant-level operating margin increased 410 basis points, to 25.5%. By all appearances, the company is really rockin'.

Chipotle even beat analysts' expectations, although many Foolish investors would take such tidings with a grain of salt (or a sprinkling of cilantro).

I think Chipotle's a fantastic company. Its "Food With Integrity" mission recalls the type of passion that Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq: WFMI) displays for organic and natural fare. The burrito chain helped to sponsor a documentary on our food supply, Food Inc., last summer, and I've recently noticed vegan dishes at some Chipotle locations. 

In my opinion, the restaurant's advocacy of sustainably raised ingredients is a visionary stand that will only grow more important to consumers over time. At the very least, that type of passion definitely differentiates Chipotle from cheaper fast-food rivals such as former parent McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), or Wendy's/Arby's (NYSE: WEN).  

It's hard to tell why investors reacted so negatively to Chipotle's savory earnings. While I think Chipotle is a high-quality stock, I'll admit that its share price has gotten a bit overstuffed. Last quarter it was trading for a bloated 30 times earnings, and even with its recent pullback, it still commands a P/E of 28 times. McDonald's has been doing very well operationally, and shares fetch only 16 times earnings. And unlike Chipotle, Mickey D's pays its shareholders a juicy dividend as well.

I don't think investors should throw Chipotle shares away; it strikes me as a good long-term pick for a growth-geared portfolio. In the near term, though, I think it's too expensive to gobble up any shares now, and current shareholders may endure a short-term roller-coaster ride, given its high price. I may love the company, but I'm not thrilled about its price tag.

Load your plate with some spicy related Foolishness:

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Chipotle is a selection of Motley Fool Rule Breakers and Motley Fool Hidden Gems. Whole Foods Market is a Stock Advisor pick. The Fool owns shares of Chipotle. Try any of our Foolish newsletters free for 30 days.

Alyce Lomax owns shares of Whole Foods Market. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 26, 2009, at 11:05 PM, EquityBull wrote:

    You commented with a comparison of McDonalds multiple vs Chipotle's but you failed to mention the much faster growth of Chipotle and thus a justified higher multiple on earnings

    McDonalds is not growing at 20% plus like Chipotle but instead 9%. Chipotle should see $4 (analysts) or $5 (my estimate) earnings next year. They have plenty of room to run where they can easily open up 5x to 10x the number of restaurants they have now domestic and international. Perhaps even 20x.

    You run the risk of not owning it here because if it does not come back in you would have to pay up to ride this story. Chipotle could easily be trading at 25x earnings of $5/share end of 2010 putting it at $125/share or 50% higher then today's quote.

  • Report this Comment On October 27, 2009, at 1:54 AM, SekouMurphy wrote:

    Interesting point...based on Yahoo! Finance, CMG's PEG is 1.08 and MCD's PEG is 1.62.

    I'm curious what you think about the timing and details of the announcement that the Class A & B shares will merge. I would've thought I'd hear more reaction. Also, seems like people got the news ahead of time (same thing with earnings), based on the dive down of the stock ahead of the news.

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Related Tickers

11/20/2009 4:02 PM
CMG $83.88 Down -1.59 -1.86%
Chipotle Mexican G… CAPS Rating: ***
CMG-B $83.19 Down -1.40 -1.66%
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN G… CAPS Rating: *****
MCD $63.97 Up +0.56 +0.88%
McDonald's Corp CAPS Rating: ****
WEN $4.11 Down -0.05 -1.20%
Wendy's/Arby's Gro… CAPS Rating: ***
YUM $35.73 Up +0.08 +0.22%
Yum! Brands, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****
WFMI $26.36 Down -0.61 -2.26%
Whole Foods Market… CAPS Rating: ***

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