A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we're looking at top CAPS members who made some of their best stock selections early on, and seeing which stocks they think will excel next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is Tastylunch, who sports a top 99.29 member rating. A member since December 2007, Tastylunch currently has 199 active picks on CAPS, out of more than 1,000 stock picks made. Achieving 78% accuracy, Tastylunch has attracted 320 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections, and how they were rated.

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
*Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about a few of these stocks, and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
I used to mock my wife's shopping habits as wasteful and superfluous, particularly in these harsh economic times. She favored jeans by True Religion, Seven, and other manufacturers that had no compunction about selling what is otherwise a casual fashion garment for $150, $200, or more. (Admittedly, her Sevens looked really good on her; they were my favorite).

While some jean makers included guys in the mix -- Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF), for example, sold $200 jeans for guys under its failed Ezra Fitch line -- I figured we men were more likely to blow a wad on power tools than low-rise jeans.

Joe's Jeans is looking to change that, by selling high-fashion premium duds geared towards men. As counterintuitive as that strategy might seem, it appears to be working. 

In its most recent quarter, Joe's posted a 42% increase in sales to $25.2 million (which I'm guessing works out to more than just 10 pairs of jeans). Indicating just how steep a markup Joe's prices into its clothes, the company's trailing gross margins increased to 50% this year. Notably, that's still less than the 60%-plus profits True Religion and even Abercrombie earn.

CAPS member Pr0metheus humorously blogs that Joe's Jeans is proving to be the Pepsi to True Religion's Coke. He expects the company to succeed, even if he'd never buy such outlandishly priced clothing himself:

I'd rather look like a fool with my pants on the ground, than pay $158 for a pair of jeans (Joe's cheapest pair of men's jeans). Even if Bill Gates gave all his fortune to me, I still wouldn't pay that much for jeans.

But there are people who would (and do), and there are enough of them to make a very profitable market. It is extremely important that one understands the target audience for Joe's Jeans before making a call on the stock. The customer who shops for Joe's Jeans or True Religion isn't looking for jeans, they're looking for JEANS (at the likes of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, not Wal-Mart and Target). And they won't stop until their wardrobe is complete. If a recession is in effect, then they'll save up the money to avoid scaling down to a cheaper brand because part of their social life is at stake. 

The jean maker's stock trades at just more than $2 a share, and it only recently became ratable on CAPS. Members, though, seem to think its fashion statement might catch on. More than 91% of those rating the stock think it will outperform the broad market averages. You can slip into a pair over on the Joe's Jeans CAPS page, and let us know how you like the fit.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. Since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?