A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we're looking at top CAPS members who made some of their best stock selections early on, and seeing which stocks they think will excel next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is Tastylunch, who sports a top 99.29 member rating. A member since December 2007, Tastylunch currently has 199 active picks on CAPS, out of more than 1,000 stock picks made. Achieving 78% accuracy, Tastylunch has attracted 320 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections, and how they were rated.

Stock

CAPS Rating (out of 5)

Call

Price*

Current Score

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  )

***

Underperform

$84.30

(109.64)

Citigroup (NYSE: C  )

***

Outperform

$3.18

(52.77)

Golar LNG

*****

Outperform

$19.29

(17.90)

IMAX (Nasdaq: IMAX  )

***

Underperform

$4.04

(191.79)

James River Coal

**

Underperform

$6.93

(104.96)

Joe's Jeans (Nasdaq: JOEZ  )

****

Outperform

$2.06

(1.47)

Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT  )

****

Outperform

$28.46

1.00

Martek Biosciences

****

Outperform

$20.13

0.01

Neutral Tandem

*****

Outperform

$15.06

(0.18)

Sears Holding (Nasdaq: SHLD  )

*

Underperform

$34.50

(129.32)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
*Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about a few of these stocks, and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
I used to mock my wife's shopping habits as wasteful and superfluous, particularly in these harsh economic times. She favored jeans by True Religion, Seven, and other manufacturers that had no compunction about selling what is otherwise a casual fashion garment for $150, $200, or more. (Admittedly, her Sevens looked really good on her; they were my favorite).

While some jean makers included guys in the mix -- Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF  ) , for example, sold $200 jeans for guys under its failed Ezra Fitch line -- I figured we men were more likely to blow a wad on power tools than low-rise jeans.

Joe's Jeans is looking to change that, by selling high-fashion premium duds geared towards men. As counterintuitive as that strategy might seem, it appears to be working. 

In its most recent quarter, Joe's posted a 42% increase in sales to $25.2 million (which I'm guessing works out to more than just 10 pairs of jeans). Indicating just how steep a markup Joe's prices into its clothes, the company's trailing gross margins increased to 50% this year. Notably, that's still less than the 60%-plus profits True Religion and even Abercrombie earn.

CAPS member Pr0metheus humorously blogs that Joe's Jeans is proving to be the Pepsi to True Religion's Coke. He expects the company to succeed, even if he'd never buy such outlandishly priced clothing himself:

I'd rather look like a fool with my pants on the ground, than pay $158 for a pair of jeans (Joe's cheapest pair of men's jeans). Even if Bill Gates gave all his fortune to me, I still wouldn't pay that much for jeans.

But there are people who would (and do), and there are enough of them to make a very profitable market. It is extremely important that one understands the target audience for Joe's Jeans before making a call on the stock. The customer who shops for Joe's Jeans or True Religion isn't looking for jeans, they're looking for JEANS (at the likes of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, not Wal-Mart and Target). And they won't stop until their wardrobe is complete. If a recession is in effect, then they'll save up the money to avoid scaling down to a cheaper brand because part of their social life is at stake. 

The jean maker's stock trades at just more than $2 a share, and it only recently became ratable on CAPS. Members, though, seem to think its fashion statement might catch on. More than 91% of those rating the stock think it will outperform the broad market averages. You can slip into a pair over on the Joe's Jeans CAPS page, and let us know how you like the fit.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. Since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?

Coca-Cola and Wal-Mart Stores are Motley Fool Inside Value selections. Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Coca-Cola and Pepsico are Motley Fool Income Investor choices. The Fool has established a bear put spread position on Abercrombie & Fitch. The Fool owns shares of Neutral Tandem. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey does not have a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings here. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (5) | Recommend This Article (3)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 16, 2010, at 11:33 AM, caltex1nomad wrote:

    I'll buy Joe's Jeans when they go out of business and I can get them at Ross, Marshalls or Big Lots for $ 19.99.

  • Report this Comment On February 16, 2010, at 12:18 PM, bobsings06 wrote:

    So this hot shot "Tastylunch" has a negative score on eight out of the ten picks displayed and he's one of the "best"? AAPL an "underperform" at $84? Shrewd...very shrewd. The good news is that I actually invested real money in Apple when it was at $84. I'm quite pleased even if my score isn't as high as Tastylunch.

  • Report this Comment On February 16, 2010, at 12:33 PM, NinjaHamster wrote:

    This is very lazy reporting done with a computer stat list and nothing else ... this guy's new picks are Apple at about $80 to "underperform" and Imax at $4.00 to "underperform" - ridiculous (even WITHOUT the benefit of hindsight) ! Why is this worthy of a report to us ??

  • Report this Comment On February 16, 2010, at 1:20 PM, ragedmaximus wrote:

    I think getting lucky in a mutibagger stock is 10% luck and 90% risking your money.I do good on some stock picks but have lost alot of money lately on so called good stock amazon, ebay,ibm and today brk.b but i'm waiting until the end of the week on brk.b.I think the market sucks this year one to 3 days up 5 then bam ths sky is falling down 20! The big fund managers are manipulating this weak market by pulling the plug then geting back in when it bounces off the floor.

  • Report this Comment On February 17, 2010, at 8:52 AM, TSIF wrote:

    The listing on Tasty doesn't put anything into context. Downthumbing Apple in the height of the recession when they sell luxury items was not a bad call. That people would spend money on entertainment when they are on unemployment is rarely understood, but is historical. People try to "treat" their kids and stay closer to home. Movie design changes are keeping IMAX up.

    CAPs scoring system is set up so that it's not useful to close picks even when they are negative. The point system is overly balance with accuracy incentives meaning a "bad" call is just as well left "open" and ridden than closed. Tasty's 78% accuracy rate includes many other calls that were excellent. You have to take the time made, and the context and pick the calls that interest you here on CAPS for your own DD. If a player is highly negative on a down call then it should be ignored. If they are negative on an upcall then it might be an opportunity, but again, if taken in context with your own homework.

    The CAPs score has some value over a long haul. The recession caused many "players" to have negative scores on downthumbs when Bush was leaving office.

    These articles do not show context, but are meant as a starting point for how to use the CAPs community if you are looking for ideas.

    Good luck.

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