A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on members who achieve scores of 100 on stock picks in their first 100 days. Here we're looking at our All-Stars who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will do best next.

One of our highest rated CAPS members is TimonLista, who sports a top 94.25 member rating. Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Stock	CAPS Rating (out of 5)	Call	Price^	Current Score
Callon Petroleum (NYSE: CPE  )	****	Outperform	$4.10	23.12
James River Coal	**	Outperform	$17.98	(8.82)
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: JAZZ  )	*	Outperform	$11.30	10.60
Merck	****	Outperform	$37.30	(0.96)
Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME  )	*****	Outperform	$6.80	(5.30)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
^Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
Despite the opportunity that abounds in China, its government's fickle nature creates a higher level of risk on investments. So even though Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA  ) spun off its more profitable arm into Shanda Games, which ought to make it the better bet, the Chinese government's crackdown on gambling introduces greater uncertainty into the stock.

Highly rated CAPS All-Star mrindependent felt the spinoff was unnecessary and that trying to outguess Beijing's next move is difficult at best, but also thinks the gaming leader is making smart moves and has some strong financials to back it:

Did I mention that this company is debt free with about $1 cash per share? Did I mention that return on invested capital is in the 100% plus range? Did I mention that the company is selling for approximately 9 times expected 2010 earnings? Did I mention that historical sales growth is stratospheric and longterm sales growth possibilities look bright?

Spring has sprung
Considering all the drugs in its pipeline, it's easy to see why investors are getting jazzed at the potential Jazz Pharmaceuticals holds. In particular, sleep disorder therapy Xyrem continues to inoculate the biotech from doubters, as fourth-quarter sales doubled from the year-ago period. Its controlled-release social anxiety disorder treatment, Luvox CR, saw strong results as well, with sales rising 86%. Since Jazz was also able to lower its costs, the company turned a profit of $5.7 million, or $0.17 a share.

Although the FDA has accepted Jazz's New Drug Application for fibromyalgia treatment JZP-6 – where rivals like Chelsea Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CHTP  ) are trying to horn in -- CAPS biotech guru zzlangerhans is actually looking for some quiet time for the pharma's stock:

JZP-6 is the wild card here of course, and the most recent model I base my skepticism on is the harsh fate of Savella, the most recently approved drug for fibromyalgia. Admittedly Savella has a poor side effect profile and probably never should have been approved, but this was not evident to the investing community prior to the approval. Memories of Savella may weigh on Jazz's share price prior to the PDUFA, although I'd rather be out or in a green thumb before the actual PDUFA date.

Start it up
There hasn't been much noise made about Callon Petroleum since deepwater rig builders like Rowan Companies (NYSE: RDC  ) got dinged when contract cancellations swept through the industry in late 2008. Since then, the company has shifted to onshore development and is looking in the Haynesville shale area to make its mark.

It hasn't abandoned the deepwater market, however, and its Gulf of Mexico assets continue to produce from their primary completion with significant proven reserves yet to tap. Callon purchased assets in the area from BP (NYSE: BP  ) a few years ago, which added to its other oil fields there, and it says Gulf of Mexico operations will still generate the majority of its operating cash flow in 2010.

Because it's been so quiet lately, Callon's been a rather sleepy stock on CAPS, where few members have offered an opinion about its future. Even so, 96% of the 361 members who have rated the oil and gas developer believe it will outperform the market. Now's the time to head to the Callon Petroleum CAPS page and drill into its operations.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. Since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?