"As the U.S. Defense Department shifts its spending priorities away from big-ticket weapons systems ... contractors are scrambling to find new avenues of growth. With millions of cyber-attacks launched each day against governments and corporations, cyber-defense looks to be an opportunity that will expand for years to come."
-- Joseph C. Anselmo, Aviation Week
"[Cybersecurity] will be one of the few growth opportunities the defense market is looking at during the Obama years."
-- Loren Thomspon, Lexington Institute.
Cybersecurity -- it's all the rage in defense circles. Threatened with wide-ranging spending cuts on traditional "big metal" defense programs, L-3 Communications
But while these efforts may replenish revenue streams for the defense giants, they fail at one critical task: Offering small investors a pure-play investment in this high-growth defense industry. Enter Keyw Corporation, with a possible solution.
IPO dreams
In a filing with the SEC last week, Keyw announced a potential $100 million IPO, to occur on a date yet unknown. According to its S-1 filing, Keyw has expertise in collecting and analyzing intelligence data for "cybersecurity, cyber superiority, and intelligence" tasks.
The NSA provided approximately 41% of Keyw's pro forma revenues last year. The Air Force chipped in another 41%, with the balance coming from "other intelligence, defense, homeland security and law enforcement organizations." It appears that Keyw does good work, since 95% of the time it wins a contract with an option for renewal, customer re-up. But that doesn't mean you should, too.
You see, Keyw aims to use much of its IPO winnings to retire $34 million in debt that it's run up over the course of a multiyear acquisition spree. Of course, Keyw wouldn't need to conduct an IPO if it could generate cash on its own -- but that's just the problem. The company burned through $8.5 million in free cash flow last year, and another $4.3 million in the most recent quarter alone (Q1 2010).
Foolish final thought
Whenever a private company goes public, the key question to ask is: "Why?" Why didn't someone else buy it? (Boeing, Lockheed, and the rest are certainly interested in cybersecurity.) Why am I now offered a chance to own this?
Here, I fear the answer is: Because it's just not a great business. I'd throw away this IPO -- lock, Keyw, and all.