Shares of Jamba (Nasdaq: JMBA ) have fallen following last week's earnings report. Is now the time to pick up shares in the turnaround juice shop?
Jamba reported tepid second-quarter earnings last Tuesday, missing expectations by several cents. Company-owned comparable-store sales dropped 2.4% from the previous quarter, and operating expenses increased markedly over last year.
Fallen sales and narrowing margins are terrible news, especially for a turnaround ... right?
Not quite
First, there's a whopping three analysts covering Jamba, so estimates should be taken with an entire shaker of salt. Any positive earnings are a good sign, since they mark the second time in almost three years that the company has posted a quarterly profit. Jamba is working to cut down on operational costs by refranchising its stores, with a goal of franchising about 60% of its outlets. The refranchising would give the company royalties to the tune of 6%-8% of net sales.
Done right, franchising can be very lucrative. McDonald's (NYSE: MCD ) has done an admirable job of refranchising its locations, driving significant cash flow for the burger behemoth. For Jamba, each refranchised store brings the company's margins for that store up to the royalty rate. At last report, the company had 311 franchises, representing 42% of its 743 total locations. The company estimates that it has an opportunity for 2,700 stores. In addition, many of the franchise deals involve agreements to develop more stores, totaling more than a hundred locations over the next five years.
With earnings out of the way, let's talk about those dreary comps. Outside California (home to 70% of Jamba's company-owned stores), company-owned-store comps were positive, in the mid-to-high single digits. California is having its coldest summer in 40 years, making smoothies less appealing than they would be in more normal 110-degree weather. The company estimates that the chilly California summer hurt comps by 300 basis points, putting weather-adjusted comps at 0.6%.
But still, what about the increased expenses?
The company's spending more because it's hiring new managerial talent, kick-starting a 200-store South Korean expansion, reinvigorating its long-stalled (and long-awaited) Nestle bottled drink deal, and pushing through several yet-undisclosed licensing deals and one additional undisclosed international market by year's end. In addition, it's strengthening relationships with convenience-store supplier Core-Mark (Nasdaq: CORE ) and snack-food manufacturer Inventure Group (Nasdaq: SNAK ) .
Through Core-Mark, Jamba will have access to 24,000 convenience stores, and through Inventure, Jamba already has smoothie kits in 6,000 locations, including heavyweights such as Safeway (NYSE: SWY ) , Target (NYSE: TGT ) , and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) . Access to these giants certainly seems like a positive, and with their distribution and marketing clout, these chains have the ability to really ramp up sales of Jamba's licensed products. I'd call that an acceptable use of resources.
This latest release is almost a metaphor for Jamba itself. It doesn't look too great at first, but if you dig deeper, it's actually quite positive. As a shareholder, I'm looking for follow-through on these plans in subsequent quarters.
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