Hedge Against a Crash Now

The market's down 15%, and a recession looms on the horizon. The outlook hasn't looked this uncertain for years. It might seem like a good time to sell and just wait out the volatility, but then you'd miss out on any big bounces.

So instead of running away, you should consider hedging your portfolio. A good hedge can reduce your downside risk, while keeping most of the upside.

One hedging option
One way to hedge is using put stock options. Suppose that you like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) but you're worried about short-term risks. Apple had a big run-up, but it has faltered a bit, and you don't want to lose your gains. But you also don't want to sell the shares, because you still believe Apple can go even higher.

To hedge, you could buy puts. The owner of the put has the right to sell the stock at a predetermined price for a period of time. On March 5, with Apple at $125, you could buy the April $125 put for $8.25. Then, if the stock's trading at less than $125 anytime between now and the third week of April, you could exercise the put to sell the stock for $125. If, instead, Apple appreciates, you would elect not to exercise the put (why sell for $125 if the stock's trading for more than that?).

The great thing about hedging with puts is that you limit your downside risk but keep the huge potential upside.

Of course, the $8.25 that you pay for the put will come out of your profits. What's more, the more volatile the stock -- and the more you need insurance -- the more you'll pay for the option:

Stock

Stock Price

Put Option

Put Price

Percentage of Stock Price

D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI)

$13.75

May $12.50

$1.30

10.5%

MBIA (NYSE:MBI)

$12.98

May $12.50

$2.30

17.7%

Ambac Financial (NYSE:ABK)

$10.72

May $10.00

$2.20

20.5%

AIG (NYSE:AIG)

$45.83

May $45.00

$2.65

5.8%

Abbott Labs (NYSE:ABT)

$53.24

May $52.50

$2.30

4.3%

Prices as of March 4, 2008, courtesy of CBOE.com.

So right now, the market thinks homebuilders and bond insurers are riskier than property and casualty insurers and pharmaceutical companies. No kidding.

Avoiding expiry
The big problem with puts is that they're like term life insurance. You pay a premium to be insured for a few months, but when that time period elapses, your insurance and premium are gone. However, there is a way to hedge without worrying about your hedge expiring.

You may have heard of Cubes (Nasdaq: QQQQ  ) , an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that mimics the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index. Well, there are short ETFs, too, whose performance is the inverse of the corresponding index. 

Even better, there are the UltraShort ETFs, which return twice the inverse performance of the underlying index. If the Nasdaq 100 falls 1%, the UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) gains 2%. Thus, UltraShort ETFs give you twice the protection for your hedging dollar.

These funds are great at guarding against a decline in the general market or a specific sector. But there are two downsides. First, if the market goes up instead of down, your hedge will lose money. Second, these ETFs maintain constant leverage. Mathematically, that means that if the underlying index goes up 10 points, and then down 10 points, the UltraShort fund won't break even. It will lose money.

The hedge-less hedge
Perhaps the best way to hedge is to not hedge at all. The reasoning is simple: Whenever you buy a stock, you should pay less for it than it's worth. Otherwise, why bother? But when you pay less than a stock's worth, it provides you with a margin of safety -- over the long term, stocks generally return to their fair value. So if you buy a stock that's 50% undervalued, then even if its fair value plummets by 50% as the business weakens during a recession, you'll still probably break even over the long term.

Even better, undervalued stocks can give you excellent returns without any improvements to the business. If a 50% undervalued stock just returns to fair value, you have a 100% return.

For example, in the February issue of Inside Value, lead advisor Philip Durell recommended a "truly remarkable franchise." He believes the stock will double in three years, partly because of its superior growth opportunities, but mainly because the shares are extremely undervalued right now.

The Foolish bottom line
So if your portfolio consists of cheap stocks and you have the stomach to stick with those stocks even if they fall further, it may be better not to hedge at all. The strategy you already employ offers an excellent combination of low risk and high reward.

If you're looking for bargains, our Inside Value newsletter service focuses exclusively on such opportunities. You can read all of our recommendations with a 30-day free trial.

Fool contributor Richard Gibbons loves to have his cake and eat it too. He does not have a position in any of the stocks in this article. Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. The Fool's disclosure policy dreams of one day being a real boy.


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