Tic-tac-toe, investors want to know: After beating consensus analysts for two quarters, can Best Buy
What analysts say:
- Buy, sell, or waffle? Twenty-five analysts follow Best Buy, giving the stock 10 buy ratings, 12 holds, and a trio of sells.
- Revenue. On average, they expect just 2.2% quarterly sales growth to $13.18 billion.
- Earnings. Profits are predicted to rise 6.4% to $1.65 per share.
What management says:
Actions speak louder than words, right? Then listen to what Best Buy management had to say in February. With its purchases completed, Best Buy summarized the results of a massive $3 billion buyback program conducted in cooperation with Goldman Sachs
The bad news? If the company's 8-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission means to say what it appears to say, then $3 billion divided by 65.8 million means that Best Buy paid about $45.59 per share here. Problem is, these shares at today's price are worth several percent less than Best Buy paid for them. Which makes this buyback at best a decent buy -- and far from best.
What management does:
Meanwhile, back at the store, gross margins continue to slip, but the rolling net margin has held firm for three quarters straight, and operating margins may even be starting to improve. The company maintains a sizeable profitability advantage over rivals Sears
|
8/06 |
11/06 |
3/07 |
6/07 |
9/07 |
12/07 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gross |
24.9% |
24.7% |
24.4% |
24.1% |
24.0% |
24.0% |
|
Operating |
5.6% |
5.4% |
5.7% |
5.3% |
5.3% |
5.5% |
|
Net |
3.8% |
3.7% |
3.8% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
All data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ended in the named months.
One Fool says:
Getting back to the SEC filings, I have to say I'm not impressed with the results of the buyback program. I wasn't overly enthusiastic about Best Buy's stock price when it was announced, and now that I see the price ultimately paid, I'm considerably less enthusiastic. Couple this with the earnings warning that came out back in February, and things look pretty grim.
According to that news, a decline in same-store sales yielded "lower-than-expected" revenue in January. Add in a weak "near-term outlook" and Best Buy will not earn its previously promised $3.10 to $3.20 for fiscal 2008. Somewhere between $3.05 and $3.10 is more likely.
Disappointed as I am with Best Buy's performance, the company's pretty much the best play on consumer electronics retailing out there (judging from its competitors' margins, noted above). With continued store growth planned, and expected sales strength from its partnerships with Dell
