Why You Should Fear the Future

Remember when everyone was quoting Baron Rothschild, saying, "Buy when blood is in the streets"? Well, this is it. We're in the Wall Street equivalent of Kill Bill meets Jurassic Park. It looks like it's all over but the spurting.

Warren Buffett knows how to play this game. He's buying, and he says that in five or 10 years, "we'll look back on this period and we'll see that you could have made some extraordinary buys."

But when the market drops 9% in a day, it's hard to react logically, like Buffett -- and not, say, curl up into a quivering, sniffling ball. Here are five ways to help you achieve your goal.

1. Be afraid -- be very afraid
Instead of looking at how much you can make by buying a stock, examine all the ways that you can lose. Bruce Berkowitz, who manages the Fairholme Fund, swears by this strategy. He tries to think of every possible scenario that can kill a company -- and if he can't find any, then he'll buy.

Even ridiculously paranoid scenarios deserve consideration. A year ago, it was inconceivable that a handful of the nation's biggest banks would go out of business and that credit markets would essentially freeze. But just because it was inconceivable, that doesn't mean it couldn't happen -- and it did.

In this environment, where no one is lending, you should be especially paranoid about debt covenants and maturing debt. Even if a company is profitable, a large debt maturity that it can't roll over could drive it into bankruptcy. With economic conditions as they are, companies are making moves they wouldn't have considered if the market were better, like General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) drawing down its credit lines and issuing equity to pay off debt.

2. Avoid black boxes
Be suspicious of companies you don't understand or whose financials are opaque. In fact, unless you understand the business model, don't buy it at all.

Sure, Buffett has invested in Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) , and it will probably turn out like many other Buffett investments. But unless you fully understand Goldman's investment portfolio -- which seems almost impossible right now -- it's difficult to be confident that the business is rock-solid.

The same sort of reasoning applies to retail banks such as Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) and bond insurers such as Ambac (NYSE: ABK  ) . If you can't assess the risk, you can't be confident in the investment -- especially when blood is flowing like water.

3. Invest only money that you don't need soon
Assume that the near-term market will remain volatile -- even after it smoothes out. That approach will prevent you from investing money you need in the near term, and thus protect you from losses you can't sustain.

Think of it this way: Suppose that you do find one of Buffett's extraordinary buys and are brave enough to pick it up. Then you're set, right? Well, not entirely. You can still lose if you're forced to sell. Remember, Buffett isn't saying these stocks will become 10-baggers tomorrow, or even next year. He's talking about five or 10 years.

So when you buy, don't buy with money you'll need soon, and definitely don't use margin. If you're forced to sell at a bad time because of a margin call, then you could lose money even if you've successfully identified a stock that goes on to become a 10-bagger.

For instance, immediately after the 9/11 tragedy, you could have bought Boyd (NYSE: BYD  ) at a cheap $5 per share. But a few days later, it traded at $3.50. If a margin call forced you to sell at that price, then you would have missed the stock rising above $50 over the subsequent five years. Ouch.

4. Ease in
And all of that means you should be suspicious of how your chosen investments will perform initially. When the market's this volatile, don't put all of your money into a stock all at once. Instead, put a portion in when you see an attractive opportunity, but save some cash to buy more if it falls.

Some people buy in thirds on the way down so that they have two chances to average down without becoming overexposed to the stock. I recommend buying enough that you'll be happy when your stock goes up, but little enough that you'll also be happy if it falls significantly and you can buy more. I originally purchased Legg Mason (NYSE: LM  ) in the mid-$60s. The descent hasn't been fun, but it's easier to handle knowing that I can buy shares at an even lower price now. And I have.

5. Buy at a discount
Of course, the whole reason you're trying to buy when there is blood on the streets is that that's when stocks are trading at big discounts to their fair value. Those discounts can propel your portfolio to extraordinary returns -- the bigger the discount, the bigger the potential return. Plus, a good understanding of a stock's intrinsic value can give you the confidence to hold in today's volatile market.

But make sure you're buying shares that are actually cheap. Many companies are trading at prices far lower than they were a year ago -- but that doesn't mean they're cheap. Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM  ) had fallen a lot by mid-August, but it was still expensive.

The Foolish bottom line
There's blood in the streets, so if you can handle the volatility, it really is a great time to invest -- but invest suspiciously and fearfully. It will do your portfolio good if you do.

Our Inside Value team has turned its skepticism on this bear market and found many companies we consider exceptionally attractive right now. That doesn't mean they'll skyrocket tomorrow, but we do think they'll prove to be extraordinary buys at today's prices. You can read all about our top picks, including our best bets for new money now, with a free trial. Just click here to get started -- there's no obligation to subscribe.

Fool contributor Richard Gibbons was praying that the killed Bill wouldn't be the bailout one. He owns shares of Legg Mason but has no position in any of the other stocks discussed in this article. Legg Mason is an Inside Value pick. Fairholme is a Champion Funds recommendation. The Motley Fool owns shares of Legg Mason. The Fool disclosure policy eats velociraptors for breakfast.


Read/Post Comments (7) | Recommend This Article (51)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 10, 2008, at 3:20 PM, MidwestBob wrote:

    I don't think the market allows anyone to be "smart" about their investments. Forget research, just throw darts. Sadly, stock prices have nothing to do with the finances, value and stability of businesses anymore. The market is like a gambling casino with traders making bets on who they can make rise and fall. How else do you explain the market cap of GM, Goodyear and Ford combined being less than First Energy? Really, the stock trading system is broke. We should have done like Russia and the Ukraine - stopped trading. And the bailout that's really needed is complete retooling of how Wall Street works.

  • Report this Comment On October 10, 2008, at 3:35 PM, Richard233 wrote:

    Market cap for companies like GM, Ford, and Goodyear, etc are starting to reflect the belt tightening by potential buyers and the costs of retooling to adjust to the current realities of the need for electric and higher MPG cars.

    Yes, people want better mileage, but they are not stupid. If it takes 5-10 years to make up the difference in price because of the current price of gas, they often won't do it on the expectation that gas may go down or that used cars might be sufficiently cheaper to make up the difference in the costs for fuel.

    Good buys in the market will eventually be found for things people have no choice but to buy.

  • Report this Comment On October 10, 2008, at 3:45 PM, fibreoptik wrote:

    If it was up to you "MidWestBob", the world would be apocalyptic. Thank goodness you are not in charge!

  • Report this Comment On October 10, 2008, at 4:04 PM, MidwestBob wrote:

    Richard233, National City Bank is trading for around $2 a share. It's book value is around $6 a share. Worse case scenario, it goes belly up and another financial institution buys it at a discount of maybe $4-5 a share. Current prices jsut aren't refelcting reality. I'm wondering, if someone wanted to gift you sole ownership of GM or First Energy, which would you take? And Fibreoptik, you must have missed the news: all the markets in the world are crashing and an emergency meeting of the G-8 has been called. It looks like a lot of people much smarter than me think the world is apocalyptic already. And I don't want to be in charge, so no worries, mate.

  • Report this Comment On October 10, 2008, at 5:12 PM, Mikel59 wrote:

    Being foolish, I bought as much as I could afford to loose. I'm not a gambler, but I believe this will pass, markets will stablize, and I will make some money (again)...The last week destroyed my earnings from the last 4 yrs. Lots of deals out there that I have been waiting a long time to buy.....

  • Report this Comment On October 12, 2008, at 9:03 PM, chrisdress1955 wrote:

    Remember the market cap does not include the value of all a company's debt. GM and Ford have huge amounts of debt on their books. Because of that their equity is much less valuable as the stock is junior to the debt.

  • Report this Comment On March 04, 2009, at 7:44 AM, acerbiciconoclas wrote:

    4 March, 09

    Ahhhh, the aroma of fresh blood in the streets.

    MAH-VEL-UHS, SIMPLY MAH-VEL-UHS!

    I love reading the l e t t e r by letter hunt and peck comments from the lame of mind e.g. "No need to do research, just throw darts...etc." Please all of like mind, adopt this attitude. For it is you sheep we sheep dogs will guide into the pen for future meetings with the men and the knives. "Lamb Chops anyone?"

    When, again, we pile more money into our accounts, as we have done before, and we buy new cars and homes and the losers park our cars and wait on us at The Little Nell, they will cry "FOUL" (but spell it FOWL"). They will file DUMB ASS NO CLASS Lawsuits and demand an even playing field.

    We should be taxed and they should get that tax money in a new bail out. We take the risks they take the money. But not this time Buckos. Not this time.

    There are tons of off shore places to place money. Of course, you have to make money to know about them.

    Thus said, all you pass up the opportunities to invest in GE under 7, JPM under 22, WFC under 12 etc etc.

    We'll wade through your selling blood and pick up the jewels of riles.

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