Bargain Stocks for Black Friday: Cemex

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Panic 2008... Profit 2009!

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Looking for a promising stock? How about this one -- it's trading for about $6 per share, down from a 52-week high of about $32. (How do I know about it? Well, I bought my own shares of it at ... $32.) So it's down more than 80%. That's not really a big recommendation, though, I know. So consider these statistics, instead:

  • According to the company itself, revenue and earnings are growing briskly: "Over the past decade, our consolidated revenue and EBITDA have increased at compounded annual growth rates of 19% and 14%, respectively."
  • Per Capital IQ, its recent P/E ratio is around 3, while its five-year average P/E is 10.
  • Per Yahoo! Finance, its PEG ratio is a mere 0.26.
  • Its dividend yield is topping 12% at the moment, since the stock has sunk so low.
  • In our CAPS stock-rating service, this company has earned five stars out of five. It is expected to outperform the market by 97% of more than 4,300 participants, and by 94% of more than 600 All-Stars.

Here's the deal -- it's a cement company. A big cement company. One of the biggest in the world, more than 100 years old, and based in Mexico. It's Cemex (NYSE: CX).

Cemex is also doing good in the world, trying to get cement to people in poor neighborhoods. (By the way, our annual Foolanthropy drive is under way -- I've already made my contribution, and I hope you'll learn more about it and consider doing the same.)

What happened
So why is this stock in the toilet? Well, look around you. The economy has slowed, taking demand for cement with it. Many infrastructure projects have likewise been put on hold. Gobs of companies have taken a big hit in 2008, and building-related ones are no exception. Check out these numbers:

Company

Stock performance, year to date

USG (NYSE: USG)

(76%)

Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK)

(36%)

D. R. Horton (NYSE: DHI)

(43%)

Masco (NYSE: MAS)

(58%)

Home Depot (NYSE: HD)

(14%)

Lowe's (NYSE: LOW)

(6%)

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

A brief tutorial digression
Permit me to share a little information on cement because ... well, it's just kind of cool. For starters, it's not the same thing as concrete. Concrete contains cement, along with sand and gravel. Cement, meanwhile, is derived from limestone, calcium, silicon, iron and aluminum, which are mixed and superheated in a kiln, and then pulverized into a powder and mixed with gypsum.

Once cement is mixed with water, it does its thing. It can even harden underwater. It can be shaped in myriad ways, is a powerful adhesive, and is incredibly tough.

Why I'm bullish
All right, back to the promising stock. I expect big things from Cemex, despite its being down some 80% for me right now. It looks like a dirt cheap value stock, and I'm thinking of buying more. Why? Well, remember that our current economy won't last forever. At some point, it will turn around, and cement will be in great demand again. I recently read that Mexico is already planning on more than $4 billion in emergency spending on infrastructure next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see America and other nations follow suit. Governments aren’t required to turn Cemex around, though -- just an economic recovery, accompanied by building and repairing homes and businesses.

Meanwhile, think about those emerging markets and big developing nations we investors like to drool over. Think of China, and India, and Russia, for example. How exactly are they going to become the developed giants we expect them to be? Well ... partly via cement. It's not glamorous, but it's necessary.

Cemex also has some advantages that can help it win lots of this future business. For one thing, it has locations all over the world, so while some competitors might have to spend a lot to deliver cement to a particular site, Cemex will often have a local provider. Its ubiquity and size are also helpful in keeping its prices competitive.

Share your thoughts!
If you haven't done so already, please sign in to the free CAPS community today and voice your own opinion on Cemex (or just read what others are saying).

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Longtime Fool contributor Selena Maranjian owns shares of Cemex and Home Depot. Cemex is a Motley Fool Global Gains selection. Masco is a Motley Fool Income Investor pick. USG and The Home Depot are Motley Fool Inside Value selections. Cemex is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick. The Fool owns shares of Cemex. Try our investing newsletters free for 30 days. The Motley Fool is Fools writing for Fools.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 28, 2008, at 12:11 PM, marcosc wrote:

    No mention whatsoever of the heavy debt load as a result of the Rinker acquisition. This seems to be a key factor in the valuation nowadays, as CX could be forced to sell key assets to pay outstanding debt.

    This $6 price is not due to JUST a slowing economy. Very misleading article, trying to pitch the owner's portfolio onto the end user.

    Disclosure: I too own shares of CX, but I'm well aware of the risks

  • Report this Comment On November 28, 2008, at 12:44 PM, Chemist29 wrote:

    I do like cemex stock, but cemex's foreign denominated debt scares, and their ability to service it. Although I have a feeling all that (and more) is priced into the stock. I liked the stock at 20, got mad when it went back up to 28 or so, then watched it positively crater which scared me. I will probably buy it when I grow a pair

  • Report this Comment On November 28, 2008, at 1:10 PM, foolishcpa100 wrote:

    Violation of debt covenants threaten to throw this company into a world of cash flow hurt. MF is watching developments as we speak and much is still unknown. We should have some additional info on this front in Q1.

    I own CX, have owned it for awhile and am none too pleased with its performance to date.

    I am very surprised and in fact, disappointed to see MF represent CX in such a positive light given this fact.

  • Report this Comment On November 28, 2008, at 3:54 PM, jempsall wrote:

    This article is very misleading because it ignores the major reason for stock decline - the debt problem. Note that 75% of debt is in US$ while most of revenue and earnings is in currencies (like peso) that are declining vs $. Also, $5.5 billion due next year. Best case scenario I see is dilution, worst is bankrupcy. I wouldn't touch this stock until debt issue is clarified.

  • Report this Comment On November 29, 2008, at 11:22 AM, mas113m wrote:

    dumb question here. why does the article state a 12% dividend yield, while the stock quote list 0%?

  • Report this Comment On December 06, 2008, at 3:03 AM, jorwel wrote:

    This is classic MF. They tout a stock and then stick with it no matter what until, like SCSS, it eventually disappears. To post an article like this without any mention at all of the debt crisis facing this company, plus the incredible error on dividend yield, as pointed out by mas113m, is inexcusable.

  • Report this Comment On December 09, 2008, at 11:09 AM, SteveTheInvestor wrote:

    CX's financing and debt situation is HIGHLY questionable. The stock has rocketed the last few days but I won't buy it. I'm guessing it is a winning stock, but I won't buy it. Why? Who knows what will happen to the company's finances?

    Besides, if I buy it, it will crash, that's just a fact.

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Cemex S.A. B de C.V. (ADR)

CAPS Rating 5/5 Stars

$10.29

+0.29 (+2.90%)

Outperform4241

Underperform121

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