Some Crude Results From Canada

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This week brought earnings releases from two hearty Canadian oil and gas independents. One said hello to new oil sands production, while the other said goodbye to the Bakken oil formation. Both are in great financial shape, and are worth a look for any Fools getting interested in this beaten-down sector.

Let's begin with Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ), whose Horizon oil sands project last year drew some very high-profile visitors. The massive project has seen its fair share of hitches along the way to this past quarter's commercial startup, but is still one of the lowest-cost operations of its kind. Petro-Canada (NYSE: PCZ) and Teck Cominco would kill for these install costs.

With oil in the $40-$50 range, an oil sands operation is perhaps not the most enviable asset today. But Canadian Natural ought to make it through this period just fine, with some handy derivatives in place. It's well worth toughing out this dip in the commodity cycle for the decades of increasing oil production, and massive free cash flows, over the, er, horizon.

Canadian Natural is both a disciplined capital allocator and a skilled risk manager. Return on capital employed hit 19% in 2008, while return on equity jumped to 33%. As commodities collapsed in the fourth quarter, dropping per-barrel netbacks (sales prices minus royalties and production expenses) by more than half sequentially, Canadian Natural's risk management really shone through, with per-barrel cash flows dropping only 13%.

For 2009, management has cut way back on its spending plan -- 57% less, compared to last year’s net capital expenditures. Underlining the fact that it has done so from a position of strength, Canadian Natural raised its dividend for the ninth straight year.

Talisman Energy (NYSE: TLM) is another company that has calmly navigated these treacherous waters. Having already divested about roughly $776 million of properties and reduced debt by an equivalent amount, Talisman has now unloaded its Bakken acreage for a cool $559 million. At around $66,000 per flowing barrel of daily production, that's a pretty rich price in this environment.

Talisman has chosen to focus on its unconventional gas plays. This is reminiscent of Chesapeake Energy's (NYSE: CHK) sale of its own Bakken assets to Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR) last year. Meanwhile, EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) and XTO Energy (NYSE: XTO) are all about the Bakken. It's interesting to see such a divide between these great E&P minds. Different strokes, I suppose.

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Fool contributor Toby Shute doesn't have a position in any company mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2009, at 11:23 AM, TimoDOZ wrote:

    Well this may seem like an investment but there is an index play in this oilsands/canroy trust game. I believe Fools would do better investing in the very beaten down ENY which has a rotation strategy in and out of oil sands to O&G Royalty Trusts. The ENY is currently 70% in the trusts with their well heeled distributions that they are able to mostly maintain through prescient hedging strategies. While ENY has no standard dividend distributions they generally can be expected to declare quarterly distributions when so heavily oriented into the income producing assets. If crude were to confirm it's current bull phase and move near $65 , then the index that guides this fund would then begin shifting back into oil sands. With ENY you get a hedge into the Loonie where it would most likely recover to over .85 from the recent new lows below .77 if it turns out the commodities sector eventually leads the overall markets out of their bottoms. This is illustrated again in this same one day rally where the Loonie has gained 1.2% against the US dollar on the rallying in commodities. As for the Nat Gas the price has been so depressed and is under pressure now from the markets outside North America as spot cargoes of LNG that used to fetch $15-$18 MM~BTU in Northern Europe and Asian markets get dumped on the US market with the STRONG US DOLLAR. This will eventually correct but in the meantime gas remains just trying to challenge the $4 mark. In this environment the best Gas investment is in CHK-PrD. On a rally day like Tuesday 3/10 we see these convertible shares with their +10% yield going nuts against an in line with the market move in the common shares of CHK. Should gas get back above $8 the convert "D" should go close to it's par valuation of $100.

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11/9/2009 4:02 PM
CLR $38.61 Up +1.44 +3.87%
Continental Resour… CAPS Rating: ****
EOG $92.40 Up +2.05 +2.27%
EOG Resources, Inc… CAPS Rating: ***
XTO $45.13 Up +1.88 +4.35%
XTO Energy, Inc. CAPS Rating: *****
CNQ $67.99 Up +2.85 +4.38%
Canadian Natural R… CAPS Rating: *****
TLM $18.04 Up +0.96 +5.62%
Talisman Energy, I… CAPS Rating: ****
CHK $25.26 Up +1.04 +4.29%
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PCZ $41.37 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Petro-Canada (USA) CAPS Rating: *****

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