Don't Sell That Stock

Recs

42

One of the most challenging moments in investing is deciding when to sell stocks out of your portfolio. But did you know that you're probably selling stocks without even realizing it?

When not buying is selling
At last year's annual meeting, Chris Davis, manager of the Clipper Fund, argued that mutual funds essentially sell some of their holdings in a company when they choose not to buy more, and instead add a different holding to the portfolio.

He used Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) as an example, saying, "Every year that they didn't buy Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), they sold Coca-Cola. Coke became a smaller percentage of their assets as new money came in and didn't go into Coke."

In other words, as new money comes in and is allocated to new positions, old positions have a smaller and smaller share of the investment pie. So the influence an old position can have on returns gets smaller and smaller, just as if some of that position had been sold.

If you've ever added new money to your portfolio by buying new holdings, the same thing has happened to you.

The big picture
Although we tend to talk about stocks one by one, how they're combined in your portfolio is an important part of investing. It's not enough to just add stocks to your portfolio whenever you run across compelling ones -- you should also be taking into account other factors, such as your overall diversification and the size of various stakes.

Fail to pay attention to the overall makeup of your portfolio, and you might end up with a large chunk of your portfolio in, say, oil-related companies, or pharmaceutical firms -- and if something happens in the industry (imagine the price of oil plunging, for example, or unwelcome health-care reforms), they could all take a big hit together.

But you don't want your portfolio to get too big, either. If you've added so many companies that each one makes up just 1% or 2% of your portfolio, a big home run from one stock isn't likely to make a huge difference to your bottom line.

That's why, as Chris Davis suggested, adding more money and companies to your portfolio, and therefore shrinking the power of your existing holdings, matters.

Perfect your portfolio
Instead of distributing your dollars between the stock that seems most promising, the 56th most promising stock, and all the stocks in between, you want to concentrate your investments on your very best ideas -- even when you add money.

Advisors often recommend holding between eight and 12 (sometimes as many as 20) companies in your portfolio. And that means making sure that every investment in your portfolio really is one of your very best ideas.

What constitutes a very best idea? For my part, it means stocks with strong prospects and strong growth. For example, here are some companies that popped up when I screened at Motley Fool CAPS for large-cap companies rated four or five stars (out of five), with revenue and earnings growth rates of at least 10%, and returns on equity (ROE) of at least 15%:

Company

CAPS Stars (out of 5)

3-Year Rev. Growth Rate

3-Year Earnings Growth Rate

ROE

Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO)

****

11%

11%

19%

Intuitive Surgical

****

45%

29%

16%

Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR)

*****

21%

12%

20%

Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL)

****

18%

21%

25%

Potash (NYSE: POT)

****

34%

82%

66%

Denbury Resources (NYSE: DNR)

*****

26%

22%

16%

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.

The Foolish bottom line
You should always be putting your money into your very best ideas -- and if a new idea supersedes an old one, selling a less-good idea to put that money in the very best idea is the right move. But whatever you do, don't sell your stocks without knowing it.

If you'd rather not hunt for promising companies on your own, let us help you. I invite you to check out our Motley Fool Inside Value newsletter, which seeks out undervalued companies to hold for the long term. A free, no-obligation trial will give you full access to all past issues and all recommended stocks. Just click here to get started -- there's no obligation to subscribe.

Already subscribe to Inside Value? Log in here.

Longtime Fool contributor Selena Maranjian owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway, Intuitive Surgical, Johnson & Johnson, and Coca-Cola. Intuitive Surgical is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers pick. Berkshire Hathaway and Coca-Cola are Inside Value recommendations. Coca-Cola and Petroleo Brasileiro are Income Investor picks. The Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool is Fools writing for Fools.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On June 02, 2009, at 9:38 AM, tgnytg wrote:

    This article seems to tell me to throw money at losers and let the winners stagnate.

    The premise of the article only applies to dividend paying stocks without reinvested dividends. The key to success is applying new money (whether by dividend or cash additions) to positions to get the best return, and the article completely discounts the possibility that shares will increase in value.

    If a portfolio is composed solely of non-dividend paying shares, the "growth stocks" that increase in share price will automatically increase their portion of your portfolio, while those with slower growth rates will automatically decrease their percentage.

    The concept of buying more shares of laggard stocks is sure to have lower returns (but you will receive your modest dividend every quarter) than applying new money to the high growth companies.

  • Report this Comment On June 02, 2009, at 11:51 AM, RobertC314 wrote:

    tgn,

    Obviously they would not advocate buying more "loser" stocks. This article refers to what happens when you add more (new) money to your portfolio:

    Regardless of what type of assets are in your portfolio (or how successful they are), you will dilute your position in your existing holdings if you do not buy the stocks you already own. If we take an extreme example:

    I own $5000 of stock A and $5000 of stock B, therefore A and B both represent 50% of my holdings. If I add another $10000 into my portfolio by buying stock C, stocks A and B now only represent 25% of my total assets. Note that there is no notion of "growth" or "value" or "income" stocks.

    I am not sure I agree with the usage of the term "sell", but it has diluted the original shares. If stock A were to triple in our example, that would have represented a 100% return in our original portfolio, while it would only represent a 50% return in our portfolio after adding the new money.

    The idea of the article is very sound - you should avoid diluting shares of companies you believe are winners by maintaining their relative percentage in your portfolio when you add new money. If you have stocks you no longer believe are worth new money, then they aren't worth the money you currently have in them. Sell and buy something that is worth it.

    My only caution on that would be to watch out for broker fees. If you are investing $1000 and you broker charges a fee of $10 per trade, you have taken a 1% loss immediately if you buy a single stock. If you try to spread that $1000 out between 3 or 4 stocks, then you are taking a 3-4% loss right out of the gate (and don't forget you will get hit again when you sell).

  • Report this Comment On June 02, 2009, at 7:17 PM, mountain8 wrote:

    Sorry, nice conception but following this idea to its end point leaves you with one stock and no diversification.

    Also if one stubbornly sets and leaves his portfolio at something like 20% commodities, 20% finance, 20% tech or bonds, treasuries, etc, or 10% China, 10% emerging countries, 10% American etc. he does not maximize his investment.

    The tone of your article suggests once an investor has 8-10 stocks, (after 'selling' his first stock 7-9 times) he should just leave it alone. I believe to maximize one's potential value he/she has to be aware of and willing to be flexible enough to change his original structure if the situation warrants it. Otherwise an investor of 20 years would miss out on all the emerging market potential alone because he might have to "sell" (not buy) more IBM, or Bank of America.

  • Report this Comment On June 02, 2009, at 7:30 PM, mountain8 wrote:

    Tgn,

    Interesting if you semantically deal only in %. If you deal in $, your argument loses weight, ie,

    If I have $5000 in A and $5000 in B, then I buy $5000 of C, I dilute my value. I don't believe so. If A doubles, my PORTFOLIO earns a lower amount in than my original makeup if and only if dealing in %. If A doubles, I make $5000 whether I buy a hundred other stocks.

Add your comment.

Compare Brokers

TD AMERITRADE
more info
ShareBuilder
more info
Power E*Trade

more info
Scottrade
more info
Fool Disclosure

DocumentId: 910914, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 2/10/2010 9:40:41 AM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...

The Must-Read Story on Fool.com
Is This Bull Over?

By The Motley Fool

Is This Bull Over?

Related Tickers

2/9/2010 4:00 PM
PBR $39.54 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Petroleo Brasileir… CAPS Rating: *****
ORCL $23.51 Up +0.39 +1.69%
Oracle Corp. CAPS Rating: ****
DNR $14.48 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Denbury Resources,… CAPS Rating: *****
KO $54.01 Down +0.00 +0.00%
The Coca-Cola Comp… CAPS Rating: ****
BRK-B $74.53 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Berkshire Hathaway… CAPS Rating: *****
CSCO $23.89 Up +0.39 +1.66%
Cisco Systems, Inc… CAPS Rating: ****
POT $105.61 Up +4.10 +4.04%
Potash Corp./Saska… CAPS Rating: ****

Community: Investing Wiki

Term Of The Hour

Commodity: A commodity is something that is bought or sold in commerce but has no measure of differentiation. No matter who produces it, it's essentially the same; like a bale of hay.

Want to learn more or edit this definition?
Click here to read more!