5 Deathbed Stocks?

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We've all heard of the "death rattle," the last gasp from a lost soul's lungs. Sometimes, we seem to hear it from the companies in which we invest: Revenues dry up. Margins contract. Profits evaporate. All of these signs suggest that their condition is worsening -- a financial death rattle, if you will.

Stocks in sick bay
Don't assume that all such companies are goners. Some will barely cling to life, while others will make a full recovery. We're seeking companies that have virtually given up the ghost. For help, we'll turn to the clever coroners at our 135,000-strong Motley Fool CAPS community, where members give the thumbs-up or thumbs-down to some 5,300 stocks.

We've unearthed a handful of stocks that look like they might be headed for their final rest, based on their one-star CAPS ratings, but we'll head over to the stock-rating service to measure their opinions on a company's prospects. Then we'll palpate their pulse with some quick tests for liquidity -- and who knows, maybe we'll still find some signs of life!

Among those tests, the current ratio and quick ratio (also called the "acid test" ratio) give us an idea of a company's ability to pay its bills, and the Altman Z-Score suggests companies in danger of bankruptcy. Companies scoring 3.00 and above are considered safe, while those scoring between 2.70 and 2.99 are "yellow flags." Companies placing between 1.80 and 2.70 have a good chance of going bankrupt within two years, and those with scores below 1.80 mean the crypt keeper is waiting.

Here's today's list.

Stock

CAPS Rating (Out of 5)

Current Ratio

Acid-Test Ratio

Altman Z-Score

Recent Price

Clearwater Paper (NYSE: CLW)

*

1.2

0.4

2.13

$26.41

AirTran (NYSE: AAI)

*

0.9

0.6

1.24

$5.92

BWAY Holding (NYSE: BWY)

*

2.3

1.3

2.15

$14.68

Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR)

*

0.6

0.4

N/A

$19.26

Hadera Paper (NYSE: AIP)

*

1.6

1.1

1.19

$41.25

Sources: Motley Fool CAPS; Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. N/A = not applicable.

We obviously don't know whether these companies are headed six feet under, so don't short them based on their appearance here. Moreover, some companies, such as software makers and financials, don't neatly fit into the Altman Z-Score scale. Yet like the mythological figure of Charon conducting souls across the River Styx to the netherworld, we'll use the CAPS community as our guide to determine whether these stocks are destined to seriously underperform the market. After all, Lear -- which appeared here a year ago -- just filed for bankruptcy protection last week.

Whistling past the graveyard
A good company frequently has its valuation hurt by getting lumped in with all of the other bad apples in its industry. Yet AirTran and other discount airlines have used their position as low-cost carriers to offset the steep decline in air travel that's wrecking the likes of Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and American Airlines parent AMR (NYSE: AMR). In fact, AirTran made a profit last quarter, its first since 2007, and Wall Street expects several of the discounters to show a profit when they report next week.

According to the industry's Air Transport Association trade group, May passenger revenue fell by 26% from a year ago, with about 10% fewer passengers paying about 18% less per ticket. With AirTran reporting its earnings next week, investors might just get another pleasant surprise. That kind of expanding opportunity makes investors such as CAPS member jpe141 believe that AirTran will take flight: "This airline is expanding routes and rated top of the savings brands."

Compared with the stocks of 31 other companies in the CAPS Airlines sector that have basically broken even this past month, AirTran has risen by 7% and in fact has more than tripled in value over the past year.

Rattling the cage
Are these companies doomed to drag their investors into an underworld of underperformance? Or will they be resurrected to stalk the markets once again? It pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made --  all from a stock's CAPS page. Sign up today, absolutely free, and let us know whether you think the Grim Reaper's at the door.

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Fool contributor Rich Duprey has no financial interest in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings. The Motley Fool's disclosure policy remains vibrant and full of life.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On July 14, 2009, at 8:41 PM, rgjerde53 wrote:

    Fool is a good name for whoever wrote this article. No wonder a lot of people went broke reading this drivel.

    EQR listed as on the deathbed? One of Fortune Magazine's "Most Admired Companies".

    The problem is that the author of this probably couldn't even tell you what FFO or NOI means -- which is the key to evaluating REITS.

    This REIT has one of the best balance sheets in the industry.

    As an EQR stockholder, I wouldn't mind if they went through bankruptcy. They are currently trading significantly below their NAV. Note to the authors: What that means is that if you sold off all their real estate (even at today's prices), paid off all their debts -- the common stockholders would probably still get about $35-$40 for each of their shares.

    If you want to lock in a good 9-10% return on your money, buy EQR (they pay that much just in dividends each year based on their current price). That doesn't even count the growth in equity when their price gets back up closer to their NAV.

  • Report this Comment On July 16, 2009, at 4:43 PM, amt0803 wrote:

    It's startling that this nonsense passes for research. Take a few arbitrary, and backward looking no less, financial ratios and make broad conclusions about the companies.

    Clearwater Paper's (CLW) free cash flow yield at the current stock price is about 40% this year, thanks to enormous government tax credits it is receiving. You wouldn't know that from reading this garbage. Does Mr. Duprey get paid to write this stuff?

  • Report this Comment On July 16, 2009, at 11:01 PM, bricks79 wrote:

    I continue to see many ignorant articles appearing at The Fool. You run some quick ratios and tell us about "deathbeds". As the previous comments suggest, you need to undestand the key metrics of a company and industry and have more than an into accounting course to offer investment commentary. Equity Residential, for example, is well capitalized, has strong cash flow, little maturing debt in the next two years and access to cash via its credit lines. It does have challenges with job losses affecting renters and excess condo supply in a few markets, but this is an excellent long term hold. I do not work for the company, but do hold its shares.

    If you don't know how to do proper analysis, why would anyone subscribe to any Fool Investment letters?

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