An Unlikely Revolution in Solar

Yesterday was a big day for solar, and no one really noticed. If you're looking for the "next big thing" in solar look no further than the announcement of 3M's (NYSE: MMM  ) Ultra Barrier Solar Film. In separate announcements, 3M introduced the new film and high volume production in Missouri during 2011. The film provides high transparency, low moisture transmission and durability for CIGS, CdTe and Organic Photovoltaic modules and is intended to replace glass in thin film modules.

This gives thin film manufacturers the ability to build solar cells in a roll-to-roll process similar to how tape, window film or LCD films are made. Machines making these products run at hundreds and even thousands of feet per minute providing low cost for manufacturers. Also, by replacing the standard glass panel for modules the panel becomes flexible, opening up a variety of installation options.

Oh, the possibilities
My excitement when I saw this announcement brought out the inner engineer in me and had a million possibilities running through my head. I was brought back to the old days when I worked at 3M as an engineer involved in product development and manufacturing.

While I don't have any insider knowledge of this product, I know 3M doesn't make major investments in capital equipment hoping demand will arrive. It must have major partners in the industry, and my money is (literally) on First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR  ) , who seems to be a natural fit. Is it just a coincidence First Solar announced 500MW of additional capacity, set to open in 2012, a day after 3M's announcement? GE (NYSE: GE  ) and Sharp would also be natural fits with their thin-film solar products. We'll have to wait and see who emerges first.

I also think 3M believes this is a revolutionary product or it would not have made two separate press releases about it. 3M introduces an unbelievable number of new products every year and this type of attention is rare, so executives must be excited.

Thinner is better
Thin film solar is the one product that has the ability to be made in roll-to-roll process dramatically reducing costs and increasing manufacturing flexibility. CdTe technology is already proven, and if CIGS in particular can get off the ground (I'm not hopeful) we should see cost reductions continue for years to come.

There is not any news suggesting partnerships between any of these companies yet, but First Solar has aggressive cost targets over the next few years and it may have made those numbers public knowing this pipeline was in place. If products unfold like I have laid out, it could put more pressure on the costs of multicrystalline manufacturers like Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE  ) , JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO  ) and Solarfun (Nasdaq: SOLF  ) who have ridden falling silicon prices in recent years.

A win-win for solar
Solar is such a big opportunity that even 3M, GE and Sharp could see a meaningful impact if roll-to-roll processing takes shape. I tend to lean toward solar only manufacturers, but First Solar is really the only big public player in this space right now with the scale and R&D backing to compete with the big boys.

Maybe I am the only one excited about the possibility solar panels can be made roll-to-roll at hundreds of feet per minute, but I think there is a huge opportunity here. In solar, investors need to get out in front of the technology curve to grab the big opportunities, and I think this is a big one. Do you think flexible films are a revolution waiting to happen in solar? Leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

Interested in more info on First Solar? Add it to your watchlist here by clicking here. My Watchlist will find all of our Foolish analysis on this stock.

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Fool contributor Travis Hoium is long FSLR. You can follow Travis on Twitter at @FlushDrawFool, check out his personal stock holdings or follow his CAPS picks at TMFFlushDraw. 3M is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. First Solar is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers selection. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

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Read/Post Comments (3) | Recommend This Article (17)

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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2010, at 1:10 PM, TMFFlushDraw wrote:

    I do not believe the film would be recyclable, although that's just my assumption.

    A few things to think about with respect to recycling and sustainability. Glass is very energy intensive and a thinner, plastic (I know, it's oil) based product like this film would not require the same energy input to make. So even if it's not recyclable does that make it less green?

    It's the same thing with hybrid cars. The batteries are extremely toxic and terrible for the environment, but you save gasoline, which is bad for the environment. Which one is worse?

    Personally, I would rather see us hit grid parity as fast as possible and this could be a key to doing that. Once we get there and solar becomes a no-brainer we can worry about recycling and environmentally friendly materials.

    My 2 Cents,

    Travis Hoium

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2010, at 8:40 PM, maiday2000 wrote:

    Glass is only recyclable due to subsidies. Every ounce of glass we recycle destroys wealth.

  • Report this Comment On December 22, 2010, at 5:00 PM, jstack6 wrote:

    Many solar panel manufactures now recycle. In Europe it's a rule. All silicon can be recycled.

    First Solar's cd-te is toxic and HAS TO BE recycled.

    Lithium batteries are non toxic as listed by the EPA, and can be recycled.

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