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Market Data Table

Breakfast News: What Does Nike Need to Just Do It?

June 29, 2026

Friday's Markets
S&P 500 7,354 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 25,298 (-0.24%)
Dow 51,876 (-0.09%)
Bitcoin $59,564 (+0.23%)

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Chart showing Nike's operating profit margin over the past five years, starting at well over 15% in the second half of 2021 and decreasing to 4.9% in early 2026.

1) Nike's Turnaround Faces Earnings Test

The latest in Nike's (NYSE:NKE) turnaround journey will be with us Tuesday, as the sports equipment giant is set to round up fiscal 2026 with a fourth-quarter earnings report. Nike -- recommended in Stock Advisor by Team Hidden Gems -- expects revenue in the quarter to slip 25 to 4%, with a 20% sales dip in Greater China set to be the biggest fall. Investors should watch for margin contractions, mainly due to tariffs in the North America region.

"Nike's stock is back to where it was 10 years ago": In April, noting CEO Elliott Hill had rejoined only about a year ago, TMF Chief Investment Officer Andy Cross said, "I still want to give them another year or two." He added, "I think come fiscal 2027 we'll start to see the financial side catch up with the brand strength, especially if we get a little help on the tariff side which is hitting profits."
Nike insiders plough $2 million into the stock: Around the same time, Fool analyst Jason Moser noted, "CEO Elliott Hill bought 23,660 shares for about $1 million and Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook (Nike board member) bought 25,000 shares for a little over $1 million."

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2) AI Jitters Send Markets Into Continued Slide

Tech stocks suffered one of their worst weeks in a year, pushing the Nasdaq down another 4.6% with the S&P 500 falling 1.95%. Though memory maker Micron (NASDAQ:MU) enjoyed a standout week on the back of bumper quarterly earnings, concerns over the sustainability of artificial intelligence (AI) spend mean "Magnificent Seven" stocks have lost close to $2.8 trillion in total market cap so far this month, according to FactSet (NYSE:FDS).

Yet another U.S. versus Iran ceasefire: Stock futures edged up again this morning after reports indicate the strikes exchanged by the two sides over the weekend have ended. In early trading, S&P 500 futures rose close to 0.7%, with Nasdaq futures up around 1.0%.
Unemployment rate expected to stay at 4.3%: With markets closed this coming Friday for the July 4 weekend, the June jobs print will be brought forward to Thursday. Analysts expect around 118,000 non-farm jobs added in the month, down from May's 172,000.

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3) Earnings We're Watching This Week: GIS, FDS, and AVAV

General Mills (NYSE:GIS) should provide food retail information Wednesday as it reports its final quarter of fiscal 2026. It follows an 8.3% revenue drop in Q3, with core North America sales down 14%. The outlook at Q3 time suggested a 16% to 20% earnings-per-share (EPS) decline for the full year.
FactSet reports Q3 on Wednesday, after reporting robust sales gains and strong new client wins in Q2. The Rule Breakers rec raised its full-year revenue outlook to between $2,450 million and $2,470 million -- after being "encouraged by early AI contributions," in the words of CFO Helen Shan.
AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV), another Rule Breakers recommendation, will post Q4 and full-year earnings after today's market close. Management expects annual revenue in the range of $1.85 billion to $1.95 billion, as analysts predict $556 million in Q4. Investors should watch the company's review of compliance with Department of Defense security standards.

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4) Axon's CEO on Drinking the Kool-Aid

Axon (NASDAQ:AXON) -- recommended by both Team Rule Breakers and Team Hidden Gems -- CEO Rick Smith used a Wall Street Journal interview to make the case for going all in on AI policing tools, casting caution as the real risk. "Most businesses are going to move too slow, because nobody wants to be seen as crazy," he said, arguing the payoff requires being "a Kool-Aid drinker" who believes "this exponential stuff is gonna pay off."

A line-in-the-sand streak: Recalling his body-camera gamble, Smith says he invoked Patton and Cortés to tell staff "there is no halfway ... we're either going to succeed or die trying."
The pitch to shareholders: Smith frames Axon's tools as giving police alternatives to guns. He has told investors the company is handing customers "genuine superpowers ... the ability to do things that simply were not possible before."

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5) Today's Take: How Much Is Too Much?

I don't invest with strict caps like "never above 10% or 20%." But if my portfolio returns become dependent on one single company being right, I force myself to revisit my original investment thesis with greater skepticism. -- Neha Chamaria, Team Hidden Gems

6) Your Take

What has been your best investment decision this month -- and your worst? What did each teach you?

Share with friends and family, or become a member to hear what your fellow Fools are saying!

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