Life is too short, as is evident in the death of 56-year-old songwriter Warren Zevon on Monday and the passing of 54-year-old actor John Ritter, of Three's Company fame, Thursday night. Not to mention that country music legend Johnny Cash died today at the age of 71.
If that's not enough to make you take time out from the daily grind, maybe this will be: While Europeans take about six weeks of vacation each year, we Americans average only 10.2 vacation days per annum, with only 4.3 nights spent away from home. Of course, on the whole, we get paid more than our European counterparts, and we own more stuff. We likely have more squirreled away in our retirement accounts, too. But if you drive yourself into an early grave, what good are the millions?
Summer is almost over. Have you enjoyed it? If not, stop reading The Motley Fool Take right now (interesting marketing message, we know) and go outside. Even if it's raining. Your stocks will still be there on Monday, and so will we.
In today's Motley Fool Take:
- Microsoft Doubles Down
- Shameless Plug: Motley Fool Income Investor
- Oracle's Top-Line Stumble
- Quote of Note
- Consumers Getting Tired
- Discussion Board of the Day: FedEx
- And Finally...
Microsoft Doubles Down
Microsoft
The world's software company still has the most modest dividend of any on the Dow 30. Shareholders buying today will yield 0.58% in an index where the average yield tops 2%. But there isn't any reason Microsoft's dividend can't go higher, and perhaps much higher, in future years.
With 10.8 billion shares outstanding, Microsoft's dividend will cost $1.7 billion annually (although more than a little of that goes back to insiders, the largest independent owners). That's a small portion of the company's approximately $13 billion in annual free cash flow, not to mention its $49 billion in cash and equivalents, which grows by leaps in interest alone.
If Microsoft has a weakness, it's that it can't find -- and will likely never find -- a business that equals or betters its world dominating software, such that any new business venture it takes on (MSN, MSNBC, gaming consoles, keyboard sales, etc.), should it ever grow large enough, would only lower the company's stellar returns on investment.
Now, you might argue that more money is more money, period -- and you have a good point. But investors are not always logical. Whereas Wal-Mart
Oh, of all the problems to have, it's not a bad one. Paying some of the cash out to investors -- and probably a larger amount every year -- seems a great answer. At the same time, Microsoft has plenty left over to reinvest in world domination. The company recently said it would add up to 5,000 jobs (it currently employs about 55,000) in fiscal 2004 and increase spending by $6.9 billion.
Microsoft's shares are the least expensive among the 20 most widely held stocks in the country. At $27, the company has an enterprise value to free cash flow of about 17; it trades at a forward P/E estimate of 23. There have been much worse times to buy the stock, and there may not have been a better time (valuation-wise) since about 1998.
Shameless Plug: Motley Fool Income Investor
The Fool's Tom Jacobs recently explained why he bought Microsoft. But if it's truly healthy dividends you seek, with yields large enough to put you in caviar and smoked salmon, consider a free trial ofMotley Fool Income Investor.
Oracle's Top-Line Stumble
Oracle
Analysts had expected $592 million in new software sales, but new licenses dropped 7% to $525 million. The shortfall is especially disheartening given that Wall Street had hoped for a second straight quarter of growth in new sales, following several consecutive quarters of declines. Software license updates and product support produced $1.03 billion, 14% above the same quarter last year.
Expenses for the quarter include a $14.6 million expense related to an unsolicited $7.3 billion for rival PeopleSoft
Earlier this week, Oracle announced the release of its next generation database and application server, Oracle 10g. The software, which "runs 10 times faster than the largest server," is slated for release later this year. Analysts expect this will boost revenues some time in the second half of 2004.
Going forward, Oracle expects to earn $0.10 to $0.11 per share in the second quarter. Shares were down 5% to $12.30 midday on the earnings news.
Quote of Note
"How well I have learned that there is no fence to sit on between heaven and hell. There is a deep, wide gulf, a chasm, and in that chasm is no place for any man." -- Johnny Cash
Consumers Getting Tired
For the past two years, the strong consumer has helped prop up an otherwise lackluster U.S. economy. But evidence is mounting that our consumer spending engine may be starting to sputter. This is no small matter, as a weakening consumer could stall the current economic recovery.
Today, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales for August rose only 0.6%, down from last month's 1.5% gain. In retrospect, July's strength was almost certainly a function of the tax rebates, which began to be mailed out in mid-July. Nevertheless, this month's slowdown in sales came as a surprise to economists who had wishfully expected 1.5% growth.
Also out today was a disappointing showing on the University of Michigan's preliminary report for September consumer sentiment. This month's reading of 88.2 was down 1.1 points from August and 2.2 points below what economists were expecting.
Given recent trends in employment, it's not surprising that consumers would be downbeat. Yesterday, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for last week rose to 422,000, marking a two-month high and the third consecutive weekly increase. Claims higher than 400,000 are considered indicative of a weak labor market.
And if all that weren't enough, a report yesterday from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America said mortgage delinquencies rose in the second quarter. The percentage of homeowners who fell behind on their payments rose to 4.62%, up from 4.52% in the first quarter. Perhaps of even greater concern, homeowners' equity fell to a record low 54.3% of home values during the second quarter, from 55.3% during the previous quarter.
All told, the consumer doesn't look to be in great shape. Rising joblessness, declining sentiment, rising delinquencies, declining home equity -- these trends are in no way conducive to a continued economic expansion. Given that consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of our nation's economy, there's reason to be skeptical that the current "strong GDP growth" is anything more than reflective of super-strong government spending and the lingering effects of past cash-out mortgage refinancings.
Discussion Board of the Day: FedEx
FedEx delivers its earnings report on Wednesday. Do you think it will deliver the goods next week? After announcing voluntary severance packages and early retirement options earlier this year, is the company ready to hire again? All this and more -- in the FedEx discussion board. Only on Fool.com.
And Finally...
Today on Fool.com:
It's a cold, soggy Friday at Fool HQ, so what better time to curl up and read all about soup company Campbell serving up a mixed earnings report. Or watch Selena Maranjian and Rick Munarriz duke it out over the breakfast powerhouses General Mills and Kellogg. If you need a little more excitement, maybe you can help Zeke Ashton figure out if Schering-Plough's new CEO is tough enough to orchestrate the company's turnaround. And if you're a video game enthusiast looking for something to do this weekend, read Handhelds for Hot Hands for news on the latest bells and whistles.
Contributors:
Bob Bobala, Robert Brokamp, Paul Elliott, Mathew Emmert, Jeff Fischer, Tom Jacobs, Jeff Hwang, LouAnn Lofton, Alyce Lomax, Bill Mann, Selena Maranjian, Dave Marino-Nachison, Rex Moore, Rick Munarriz, Matt Richey, Reggie Santiago, Dayana Yochim