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3 Ways to Prepare for the Next Big Drop

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This time last year, even a dart-throwing monkey could have made money in the stock market -- all you needed was the courage to buy at one of the scariest times in history. Now, though, financial markets of all sorts have risen sharply, and there's a lot more to making a winning investment than picking a stock ticker at random and buying shares.

It's a whole new ball game
If you're like many people, you've probably done your best to repress your memories of early 2009. Back then, the stock market was falling apart, after a failed attempt to put together a rally off the lows set during 2008's panic. Everyone was convinced that companies like MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM  ) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) were just a few steps from bankruptcy, and even the prospects for healthier companies seemed grim.

Now, though, fear has given way to greed. Many of the stocks that seemed most likely to fail instead topped the performance charts for 2009. Stock markets around the world saw huge gains, with the U.S. market's rise relatively small in comparison to jumps in emerging markets like Brazil and China. Moreover, after a terrible end in 2008, commodities also regained much of their lost luster, as gold jumped to new highs and energy prices made a sharp recovery from their huge drop to $30 from nearly $150.

If those big gains make you nervous, you're not alone. If you think it's time for these roller-coaster markets to start another downswing and don't want to go along for the ride, then here are three things to think about for various parts of your portfolio.

1. With stocks, think quality
Amid all the big gains of last year, many stocks have gotten left behind, at least compared to the overall market. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  ) , Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG  ) , and AT&T (NYSE: T  ) are among the big-name companies that haven't seen anything close to the gains of even the S&P 500, let alone the multibagger performance that dozens of stocks produced last year.

But there are two reasons to look for lagging sectors. First, as bull markets evolve, they tend to go through sector rotation, in which stocks that haven't performed as well catch up with the top performers. So if this is the beginning of a longer-term bull market, then you can expect large caps that have thus far been left behind to see some gains.

On the other hand, the stocks that have risen the most also have the furthest to fall. If the stock market's rally reverses itself soon, then you can expect stocks that are still value-priced to hold up better than highfliers without the fundamentals to back up their lofty valuations.

2. With bonds, think duration
Everyone's stretching for yield right now, as interest rates have remained low. When you need income from your portfolio to survive, times like these can lead you to take desperate measures.

But you need to resist the urge to buy longer-term bonds just to get higher yields. Rates show signs of rising soon, and if they do, falling prices could wipe out the higher interest you'll receive on long bonds. In contrast, short-term bonds won't pay as much income up front, but they also won't lose as much value per percentage-point move in a rising-rate environment.

Finally, just as speculative stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves, lower-quality corporate bonds have also jumped in front of Treasuries. Consider rebalancing your portfolio to get its risk profile back where you want it.

3. With alternative investments, be wary
Commodities and real estate are becoming more mainstream investments than ever. But while having some exposure can help your portfolio, now isn't the time to make huge bets on them.

Whether you use stocks like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX  ) and Precision Drilling Trust (NYSE: PDS  ) as proxies for metals and energy or invest in specialized ETFs with direct exposure to commodities, prices have jumped a lot over the past year. Hedging your holdings, either by selling some of those investments or with other strategies such as writing covered calls or buying puts, can take some risk off the table.

Watch your greed
Most investors are in much better shape now than they were this time last year. But you don't want to lose those hard-fought gains. By taking steps to secure your portfolio, you'll help to keep yourself from enduring the same trials you suffered through during the financial crisis.

With so many stocks seeing big gains, focusing on value stocks might seem hopelessly outdated. Jordan DiPietro takes a closer look at whether value investing is dead.

Fool contributor Dan Caplinger is as ready as he'll ever be for whatever the market throws at him. He owns shares of Freeport-McMoRan and Precision Drilling. Precision Drilling is a Motley Fool Global Gains recommendation. Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble are Motley Fool Income Investor picks. The Fool owns shares of Procter & Gamble. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days. The Fool's disclosure policy is just as important as the Boy Scout motto.


Read/Post Comments (3) | Recommend This Article (19)

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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 22, 2010, at 11:28 AM, belihe wrote:

    I am just a beginner with investing but I am not a beginner at all in understanding people. Every time I hear or see things like the next big crash I can't help but wonder if we are all creating a state of mind. I mean it feels like people are just ready to stampede. It's Chicken Little or is it? I can't decide. Anyone else wonder what the market would have looked like if not one media had reported there was a problem or what it would look like right now if every important voice suddenly said, its over, we're OK, go shopping or take a vacation, all is good! Are we thinking our way into believing that things are teetering on doom and if we believed otherwise and all went out and got a great deal on a new car, would that correct the 10% job loss? It just keeps feeling like we were going along swimmingly until one day someone said we weren't. I worry about mass belief, mass hysteria, and being controlled through my fears. Not to say you (MF) are doing that, I feel reasonably sure that being good at what you do is just important to you as making money. I just worry what the potentials are for those who have a strong voice, to have us running back and forth buying or selling at their whim. Am I crazy to be concerned about that kind of thing? Is it my ignorance of the financial world or just more of the same kind of paranoia I spend time fearing?

  • Report this Comment On January 23, 2010, at 9:07 AM, LazyOldMan wrote:

    The basic rule is markets rise and fall. The question of when is the hard part but there are "technical" patterns that prognosticators follow. One, is that if the market goes up 50% or 100% in a single year that the rate is unsustainable and there will be an adjustment. Productivity didn't really improve that same 50% to 100% to support the "new" price.

    I have been very selective about investing new money for several months. I am building up cash... I can use the cash to coast through a downturn or I might see some of those value stocks that still are financially strong and will weather this market cycle as great buying opportunities. Either way, I expect the TARP stimulus will end and the markets will have to adjust to higher taxes and interest rates. At which point there will be another downward adjustment... Historically, there is a reason to expect the variation in the markets to have one more big adjustment to allow the system to settle down into a more normal growth pattern 5-10% per year. That is when you want to be fully invested... but still diversified... Talk doesn't really do that much. Look at the underlying economics of not just the US economy but the world "global" economy to see what the plan should be... I am holding my current investments that were purchased in February and March 2009. Personally I may still invest more in India and China. In the long run they and Brazil seem to be the big winners from this current financial fiasco.

  • Report this Comment On February 04, 2010, at 3:14 PM, heidi115 wrote:

    calls & puts where can i find more info

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Dan Caplinger
TMFGalagan

Dan Caplinger has been a contract writer for the Motley Fool since 2006. As the Fool's Director of Investment Planning, Dan oversees much of the personal-finance and investment-planning content published daily on Fool.com. With a background as an estate-planning attorney and independent financial consultant, Dan's articles are based on more than 20 years of experience from all angles of the financial world.

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