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Now more than ever, a comfortable retirement depends on secure, stable investments. Unfortunately, the right stocks for retirement won't just fall into your lap. Let's figure out what makes a great retirement-oriented stock, then examine whether Teva Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq: TEVA ) has what we're looking for.
The right stocks for retirees
With decades to go before you need to tap your investments, you can take greater risks, weighing the chance of big losses against the potential for mind-blowing returns. But as retirement approaches, you no longer have the luxury of waiting out a downturn.
Sure, you still want good returns, but you also need to manage your risk and protect yourself against bear markets, which can maul your finances at the worst possible time. The right stocks combine both of these elements in a single investment.
When scrutinizing a stock, retirees should look for:
- Size. Most retirees would rather not take a flyer on unproven businesses. Bigger companies may lack their smaller counterparts' growth potential, but they do offer greater security.
- Consistency. While many investors look for fast-growing companies, conservative investors want to see steady, consistent gains in revenue, free cash flow, and other key metrics. Slow growth won't make headlines, but it will help prevent the kind of ugly surprises that suddenly torpedo a stock's share price.
- Stock stability. Conservative retirement investors prefer investments that move less dramatically than typical stocks, and they particularly want to avoid big losses. These investments will give up some gains during bull markets, but they won't fall as far or as fast during bear markets. Beta measures volatility, but we also want a track record of solid performance as well.
- Valuation. No one can afford to pay too much for a stock, even if its prospects are good. Using normalized earnings multiples helps smooth out one-time effects, giving you a longer-term context.
- Dividends. Most of all, retirees look for stocks that can provide income through dividends. Retirees want healthy payouts now and consistent dividend growth over time -- as long as it doesn't jeopardize the company's financial health.
With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Teva Pharmaceutical.
What We Want to See
Pass or Fail?
|Size||Market cap > $10 billion||$45.0 billion||Pass|
|Consistency||Revenue growth > 0% in at least four of five past years||5 years||Pass|
|Free cash flow growth > 0% in at least four of past five years||4 years||Pass|
|Stock stability||Beta < 0.9||0.19||Pass|
|Worst loss in past five years no greater than 20%||(27.2%)||Fail|
|Valuation||Normalized P/E < 18||17.72||Pass|
|Dividends||Current yield > 2%||1.7%||Fail|
|5-year dividend growth > 10%||23.1%||Pass|
|Streak of dividend increases >= 10 years||11 years||Pass|
|Payout ratio < 75%||20.1%||Pass|
|Total score||8 out of 10|
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Total score = number of passes.
With eight points, Teva Pharmaceutical gives conservative investors nearly everything they're looking for from a stock. The generic-drug maker has carved out a strong position in its industry, which should continue to see gains from demographic trends and cost-cutting pressures for health care generally.
Teva's model for the generics part of its business is simple: Wait until patent protection expires on drugs that other drugmakers have developed and then come up with generic equivalents. That sounds simple, but Teva has turned it into billions in sales, with popular generic versions of drugs from Pfizer (NYSE: PFE ) and GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK ) , among others.
But Teva isn't letting success go to its head. It's taking a leadership role in trying to get Food and Drug Administration approval for biosimilar drugs, a potential billion-dollar market that is the biologic equivalent to generics. Moreover, it has successful drugs of its own, such as the MS drug Copaxone, which collectively contribute substantial revenue to Teva's overall business.
Unlike competing generics makers Mylan (Nasdaq: MYL ) and Watson Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: WPI ) , Teva pays a healthy dividend that the company has raised steadily for more than a decade. Combined with steady growth and its presence in an industry with so much future promise, Teva deserves a close look from retirees and other conservative investors looking to bolster their portfolios with health-care names.
Finding exactly the right stock to retire with is a tough task, but it's not impossible. Searching for the best candidates will help improve your investing skills and teach you how to separate the right stocks from the risky ones.
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