Recs

3

Is Ford the Right Stock to Retire With?

Now more than ever, a comfortable retirement depends on secure, stable investments. Unfortunately, the right stocks for retirement won't just fall into your lap. Let's figure out what makes a great retirement-oriented stock, then examine whether Ford (NYSE: F  ) has what we're looking for.

The right stocks for retirees
With decades to go before you need to tap your investments, you can take greater risks, weighing the chance of big losses against the potential for mind-blowing returns. But as retirement approaches, you no longer have the luxury of waiting out a downturn.

Sure, you still want good returns, but you also need to manage your risk and protect yourself against bear markets, which can maul your finances at the worst possible time. The right stocks combine both of these elements in a single investment.

When scrutinizing a stock, retirees should look for:

  • Size. Most retirees would rather not take a flyer on unproven businesses. Bigger companies may lack their smaller counterparts' growth potential, but they do offer greater security.
  • Consistency. While many investors look for fast-growing companies, conservative investors want to see steady, consistent gains in revenue, free cash flow, and other key metrics. Slow growth won't make headlines, but it will help prevent the kind of ugly surprises that suddenly torpedo a stock's share price.
  • Stock stability. Conservative retirement investors prefer investments that move less dramatically than typical stocks, and they particularly want to avoid big losses. These investments will give up some gains during bull markets, but they won't fall as far or as fast during bear markets. Beta measures volatility, but we also want a track record of solid performance as well.
  • Valuation. No one can afford to pay too much for a stock, even if its prospects are good. Using normalized earnings multiples helps smooth out one-time effects, giving you a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. Most of all, retirees look for stocks that can provide income through dividends. Retirees want healthy payouts now and consistent dividend growth over time -- as long as it doesn't jeopardize the company's financial health.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Ford.

Factor

What We Want to See

Actual

Pass or Fail?

Size Market cap > $10 billion $49.1 billion Pass
Consistency Revenue growth > 0% in at least four of five past years 2 years Fail
  Free cash flow growth > 0% in at least four of past five years 2 years Fail
Stock stability Beta < 0.9 2.38 Fail
  Worst loss in past five years no greater than 20% (66%) Fail
Valuation Normalized P/E < 18 9.63 Pass
Dividends Current yield > 2% 0% Fail
  5-year dividend growth > 10% 0% Fail
  Streak of dividend increases >= 10 years NM NM
  Payout ratio < 75% NM NM
       
  Total score   2 out of 8

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard and Poor's. NM = not meaningful; Ford pays no dividend. Total score = number of passes.

With just two points, Ford doesn't look like the sort of stock that conservative investors would want to buy. Not only has the stock taken shareholders on a wild ride over the past several years, but its lack of a dividend makes it a tough choice for those looking to generate income from their portfolios.

Two years ago, it was far from certain that Ford would survive. Shares fell as low as $1 during the market meltdown as investors assumed the company wouldn't be able to escape the fate of its automotive peers.

It's hard to find fault with Ford's survival skills domestically. Unlike rival General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) , Ford avoided bankruptcy and didn't need government assistance. Its product quality has risen sharply. The company has gone a long way toward eliminating debt and expects to regain an investment-grade bond rating in the near future. After that, the company says, paying dividends may be the next step.

Outside the U.S., though, Ford has made some missteps. In China, for instance, Ford has largely missed the boat, as GM, Honda (NYSE: HMC  ) , and Toyota (NYSE: TM  ) have made inroads in the emerging market. But Ford boosted its sales in India last year in the light of Tata Motors' (NYSE: TTM  ) dominance, and Ford also topped the Canadian market for the first time in half a century.

The auto industry has been a dangerous place to invest, as the Big Three's track records show. Despite its relative strength, Ford now faces competitive disadvantages to rivals GM and Chrysler, whose balance sheets are much cleaner after emerging from bankruptcy. Retirees and other conservative investors may want to steer clear of Ford until the industry settles, although those with a tolerance for risk may well find the rewards worth taking a chance on the stock.

Keep searching
Finding exactly the right stock to retire with is a tough task, but it's not impossible. Searching for the best candidates will help improve your investing skills, and teach you how to separate the right stocks from the risky ones.

Add Ford to My Watchlist, which will aggregate our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

If you want to retire rich, you need to be confident that you've got the basics of your investment strategy down pat. See if you're on track by following the "13 Steps to Investing Foolishly."

Fool contributor Dan Caplinger doesn't own shares of the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of Ford. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of General Motors and Ford. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (3) | Recommend This Article (3)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On June 21, 2011, at 12:42 PM, SoaringBob wrote:

    Whoa, hold yur horses! So retirees' were supposed to wait for F to fully recover (meet all the criteria in the article) before buying in? Sorry, but a bargain is a bargain, and they don't sit around waiting to be jumped on for long. I saw nothing wrong with grabbing a few screaming bargains near the bottom of the last crash using a small percentage of my funds. F turned out to be a keeper, and took my portfolio back to break even the following year. In at $1.25 and taking F to the grave!

  • Report this Comment On June 21, 2011, at 1:19 PM, Optimyst wrote:

    I can't wait to see this same chart for Ford updated 3 years from now...

    By the way, it would be great if you could do the same thing for GM, Chysler, Toyota and Honda, and then put the results side by side - that way we can get a really nice comparison...

  • Report this Comment On June 21, 2011, at 1:49 PM, nontechie wrote:

    I owned the Ford preferred and made a tidy profit on it but until they start paying a serious dividend, I'm not interested in the common. This is a mature and cyclical industry, not a growth stock. Without an attractive yield, why would a retiree (or many others) want to own it?

Add your comment.

DocumentId: 1510033, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 7/30/2014 7:38:08 PM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...

Dan Caplinger
TMFGalagan

Dan Caplinger has been a contract writer for the Motley Fool since 2006. As the Fool's Director of Investment Planning, Dan oversees much of the personal-finance and investment-planning content published daily on Fool.com. With a background as an estate-planning attorney and independent financial consultant, Dan's articles are based on more than 20 years of experience from all angles of the financial world.

Today's Market

updated Moments ago Sponsored by:
DOW 16,880.36 -31.75 -0.19%
S&P 500 1,970.07 0.12 0.01%
NASD 4,462.90 20.20 0.45%

Create My Watchlist

Go to My Watchlist

You don't seem to be following any stocks yet!

Better investing starts with a watchlist. Now you can create a personalized watchlist and get immediate access to the personalized information you need to make successful investing decisions.

Data delayed up to 5 minutes

Related Tickers

7/30/2014 4:01 PM
F $17.46 Up +0.02 +0.09%
Ford CAPS Rating: ****
GM $34.31 Down -0.14 -0.41%
General Motors CAPS Rating: **
HMC $35.84 Down -0.18 -0.50%
Honda Motor Co., L… CAPS Rating: *****
TM $120.04 Down -0.54 -0.45%
Toyota Motor Corp… CAPS Rating: ***
TTM $39.71 Down -0.48 -1.19%
Tata Motors CAPS Rating: ****

Advertisement