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Now more than ever, a comfortable retirement depends on secure, stable investments. Unfortunately, the right stocks for retirement won't just fall into your lap. Let's figure out what makes a great retirement-oriented stock, then examine whether Boeing (NYSE: BA ) has what we're looking for.
The right stocks for retirees
With decades to go before you need to tap your investments, you can take greater risks, weighing the chance of big losses against the potential for mind-blowing returns. But as retirement approaches, you no longer have the luxury of waiting out a downturn.
Sure, you still want good returns, but you also need to manage your risk and protect yourself against bear markets, which can maul your finances at the worst possible time. The right stocks combine both of these elements in a single investment.
When scrutinizing a stock, retirees should look for:
- Size. Most retirees would rather not take a flyer on unproven businesses. Bigger companies may lack their smaller counterparts' growth potential, but they do offer greater security.
- Consistency. While many investors look for fast-growing companies, conservative investors want to see steady, consistent gains in revenue, free cash flow, and other key metrics. Slow growth won't make headlines, but it will help prevent the kind of ugly surprises that suddenly torpedo a stock's share price.
- Stock stability. Conservative retirement investors prefer investments that move less dramatically than typical stocks, and they particularly want to avoid big losses. These investments will give up some gains during bull markets, but they won't fall as far or as fast during bear markets. Beta measures volatility, but we also want a track record of solid performance as well.
- Valuation. No one can afford to pay too much for a stock, even if its prospects are good. Using normalized earnings multiples helps smooth out one-time effects, giving you a longer-term context.
- Dividends. Most of all, retirees look for stocks that can provide income through dividends. Retirees want healthy payouts now and consistent dividend growth over time -- as long as it doesn't jeopardize the company's financial health.
With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Boeing.
What We Want to See
Pass or Fail?
|Size||Market cap > $10 billion||$47.1 billion||Pass|
|Consistency||Revenue growth > 0% in at least four of five past years||3 years||Fail|
|Free cash flow growth > 0% in at least four of past five years||1 year||Fail|
|Stock stability||Beta < 0.9||1.28||Fail|
|Worst loss in past five years no greater than 20%||(50.1%)||Fail|
|Valuation||Normalized P/E < 18||16.16||Pass|
|Dividends||Current yield > 2%||2.8%||Pass|
|5-year dividend growth > 10%||7.9%||Fail|
|Streak of dividend increases >= 10 years||0 years||Fail|
|Payout ratio < 75%||35%||Pass|
|Total score||4 out of 10|
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Total score = number of passes.
With only four points, Boeing isn't flying high in giving conservative investors what they prefer from their favorite stocks. The aerospace giant is having some good fortune in the commercial space, but government budget woes threaten its defense business.
You'd think that a combination of high fuel costs and a weak economy would be pushing airlines toward cutting back, potentially devastating Boeing's commercial airliner business. But instead, many airlines are doing exactly the opposite, making grand fleet expansions. AMR (NYSE: AMR ) made a mammoth order of 460 planes, and although rival Airbus got the majority of the order, Boeing will still produce 200 737s in the deal. Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL ) also made a big order, and at least so far, worries that Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV ) would jump ship and drop its Boeing exclusivity to order Airbus planes haven't panned out.
But Boeing is also a major defense contractor, and on that side of the business, government penny-pinching is hurting. Just as Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT ) has seen with its F-35, rumored cost overruns on Boeing's KC-46 tanker aircraft could result in lower profits for the company. The answer may be to get more revenue from overseas, but in the meantime, competition with fellow defense giants like Lockheed, Raytheon (NYSE: RTN ) , and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC ) will be fierce.
For retirees and other conservative investors, Boeing is a well-known name with a good track record of providing decent dividend income. But the stock has faced turbulence from economic and government-spending uncertainty, and that doesn't look likely to end anytime soon. For conservative investors, Boeing may be too risky to include in their retirement portfolios.
Finding exactly the right stock to retire with is a tough task, but it's not impossible. Searching for the best candidates will help improve your investing skills, and teach you how to separate the right stocks from the risky ones.
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