I hate to get in the way of peas and carrots -- or Captain and Tennille -- but Tim is offering false hope to eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY ) bulls. By pointing out how investors who paid 97 times earnings in 2003 made out nicely, he is only telling half the story.
Yes, Toni and Captain, love will keep us together, but logic will tear us apart.
See, 2003 was a big year for eBay. After watching revenue and pro forma profits jump 62% and 78% respectively in 2002, its growth accelerated in 2003. Net revenue and pro forma net income soared 78% and 94% respectively that year.
Those growth rates are history. Deceleration has been the name of the game in recent years. Analysts expect earnings to grow just 18% higher next year. Are you really prepared to pay twice that multiple when the trend is perpetually pressing down on the brake pedal? Most investors who have bought in since 2004 -- save for during a slump last summer -- are showing paper losses on the stock. So take out 2003 from Tim's table, and the subsequent investors did overpay for eBay. Don't walk a market mile in those hole-riddled shoes.
Tim points out how eBay's marketplace is rocking over cobweb-collecting laggards like Overstock.com (Nasdaq: OSTK ) . I should point out that Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO ) bid its auction business goodbye last month. But what does it really mean if eBay is struggling even as competitors are falling by the wayside? It's not a testament to eBay's strength. It's a testament to the paid auction format's weakness.
If sellers are flocking to free listing sites, isn't that where the buyers will follow? Tim calls eBay's own Kijiji a "Craigslist killer," but isn't it really the eventual heir to eBay's rusting throne? And if so, should I be worried that when scouring Kijiji.com in Tim's hometown of Denver, I find just 235 ads -- oh, and none of them for comic books?
Wait! You're not done with this Duel. Go back and read the other arguments, then vote for a winner.
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Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a satisfied eBay user, with the 172 positive feedback rating to show for it. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also part of the
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