Hulk Takes Hollywood

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Man, was I wrong.

The Incredible Hulk didn't even come close to pulling in $70 million during its opening weekend, as I predicted last week. Nevertheless, as an investor, I love the job that Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) did.

Headlines across the country this morning read of how Hulk "smashed" the box office and pummeled expectations, with a $54.5 million gross here in the U.S. and $31 million overseas.

And fanboys are still buzzing about the film. At film database RottenTomatoes.com, the broader community still gives the film a sparkling 87% rating. Top critics -- those whose job it is to rate films -- aren't as forgiving: Only 67% of them approve of the Hulkster's reintroduction. The good news? That's far better than the 53% rating they give director Ang Lee's try from 2003.

But can the Hulk reach at least $150 million in domestic grosses before he's done? I think so. Here's why:

Film	Opening Weekend As a % of Total	Community Rating at RottenTomates.com
Iron Man	33.2%	93%
Spider-Man	28.4%	91%
Spider-Man 2	23.6%	91%
X-Men	34.6%	90%
Blade	24.4%	80%
Fantastic Four	36.2%	49%
Blade: Trinity	30.6%	45%

Sources: Box Office Mojo, RottenTomatoes.com.

Notice that Marvel's top-rated films have some of the strongest legs. Spider-Man and Spider-Man 2, for example, attribute less than 30% of their domestic gross to opening-weekend success. Top earners from Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Pixar have similar or better ratios, as do most of the films in Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Batman franchise.

Fortunately, The Incredible Hulk needn't leap that far. Were the opening weekend certain to account for no more than 36.3% of its total, $150 million in domestic gross would be the result.

We'll have a better feel for whether that's possible after next weekend. If, like Iron Man before it, The Incredible Hulk can hold more than 50% of its audience volume from the open, it'll show that the film has the staying power to make fans and investors alike green -- with cash.

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