Go ahead. Sell Marvel Entertainment (NYSE:MVL). I dare you.
Shares of the comic book king were down as much as 8% this morning after its third-quarter report showed huge gains in revenue (up 47%) and per-share earnings (up 42%). Marvel also raised its full-year guidance from $1.55 - $1.75 per share to $2.45 to $2.65 a share.
None of that mattered. Investors chose instead to focus on 2009 guidance, which calls for just $1.00 - $1.35 in per share net income. Dumb. Next year will be light because Iron Man DVD sales are brisk. Brisk enough that payments from Viacom's (NYSE:VIA) Paramount Studios, originally scheduled for 2009, will now be made this year.
What's more, Marvel has no self-financed films planned for 2009 -- only a Wolverine solo shot made in concert with News Corp.'s (NYSE:NWS) Fox. Licensing revenue does best when there's a full film slate to provide a tailwind.
Economic headwinds also come into play. Vice Chairman Peter Cuneo called this year's panic-cum-opportunity "unprecedented" and told analysts that "it's very prudent for us to be cautious with our projections." The low-end of Marvel's 2009 guidance calls for a 10%-15% recessionary effect on every area of its business.
All hail the cash flow king
But what a business it is. Cash just keeps flowing:
|
Components of Adj. Cash From Operations |
TTM* |
2007* |
2006* |
2005* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Reported net income |
$170,154 |
$139,823 |
$58,704 |
$102,819 |
|
Depreciation and amortization |
$2,465 |
$5,970 |
$14,322 |
$4,534 |
|
Amortization of film inventory |
$65,599 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
|
Amortization of financing costs |
$4,981 |
$4,980 |
$4,980 |
$1,660 |
|
Deferred revenue |
($19,105) |
($28,956) |
$140,087 |
($6,093) |
|
Film production costs |
($113,350) |
($251,045) |
($15,055) |
$0 |
|
Borrowings from film facility |
$123,448 |
$255,926 |
$7,400 |
$25,800 |
|
Capital expenditures |
($1,218) |
($2,659) |
($16,286) |
($4,289) |
|
Adj. Operating Cash Flow |
$233,334 |
$124,039 |
$194,152 |
$124,431 |
Sources: Press releases, SEC filings. *Numbers in thousands. TTM = trailing 12 month
And it's flowing onto the balance sheet, where you'll find more than $145 million in cash and short-term investments versus $182 million in net film debt. That's down $106 million from what the company owed in December. $106 million in nine months. Few firms short of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) can boast as much relative cash-generating horsepower.
The mighty checkbook
Which explains Marvel's planned capital outlays; they aren't slowing a bit. Chief Financial Officer Ken West told analysts to expect $175 million in cash spending on Marvel's next four films -- Iron Man 2, Thor, Captain America, and The Avengers -- in 2009. He also said that Marvel should close next year with $100 million in cash and equivalents.
Do today's sellers realize how remarkable that is? Barring debt repayments, Marvel will end 2008 with between $200 and $215 million in cash and equivalents -- enough to write a check in January for all of next year's film spending.
And yet Marvel shouldn't need anywhere near $175 million. Not unless management plans to pre-pay its production commitment (33% of total budget) for both Iron Man 2 and Thor and most of its up-front costs for Captain America and The Avengers.
That's exactly what I'm expecting: huge up-front spending in 2009 in order to reap a windfall of profits and cash flow from any successes in 2010 and 2011.
Management muscle
Call it Marvel's financial superpower, as witnessed by huge returns on invested capital:
|
Return On Invested Capital* |
TTM |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Earnings before interest and tax |
$313.12 |
$273.03 |
$110.16 |
$181.17 |
|
NOPAT (37.5% tax rate) |
$195.70 |
$170.64 |
$68.85 |
$113.23 |
|
Avg. Invested Capital |
$453.68 |
$387.86 |
$345.75 |
$466.45 |
|
ROIC |
43.1% |
44.0% |
19.9% |
24.3% |
Source: Capital IQ, filings. *Numbers in millions. TTM = trailing 12 month
Marvel bests every one of its peers when it comes to ROIC, which improved six percentage points from Q2 to Q3. Neither Disney (NYSE:DIS), nor DreamWorks (NYSE:DWA), nor Time Warner (NYSE:TWX), producer of the summer blockbuster The Dark Knight, get close. Only DreamWorks and Disney get into the double-digits.
So go ahead, investors. Sell Marvel, I dare you. All you have to lose are years of multibagger returns.
Face front, True Believer! More Marvel Foolishness awaits:
- Here are 3 great reasons to love Marvel right now.
- These are strange days for the comic book king.
- Check out this Marvel team-up.
