Can You Win With This Telecom Stock?

• Email
• Share
• Print

Back in July, at $6.55 a share, I argued that Palm (Nasdaq: PALM) would burn your portfolio. A poor balance sheet and sagging growth left me convinced that this one-time smartphone superstar had lost its mojo.

Fast-forward three months. Palm is down more than 50%, has more debt than equity, and ranks below Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM), Motorola (NYSE: MOT), and the industry average in customer satisfaction, according to a recent J.D. Power and Associates survey.

Worse, Palm has fallen so far, so fast, that it no longer ranks in the top five as a global smartphone vendor. Once again, here are the numbers:

Company	Q3 2008 Shipments	% Market Share	Q3 2007 Shipments	% Market Share
Nokia	15.485 mil	38.9%	16.025 mil	51.4%
Apple	6.899 mil	17.3%	1.107 mil	3.6%
Research In Motion	6.051 mil	15.2%	3.298 mil	10.6%
Motorola	2.313 mil	5.8%	2.058 mil	6.6%
High Tech Computer	2.308 mil	5.8%	.850 mil	2.7%
Other	6.791 mil	17%	7.816 mil	25.1%

Source: Canalys.

Apple was a big winner; Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was somewhat a loser. But Palm finds itself tossed into the "Other" category, lumped in along with all the second-tier smartphone vendors that were all huge losers.

Can anything reverse this trend? One critic of my summertime criticism said that Palm is working on a new OS, and that, once it's released, a new breed of Treos and Centros will gobble up market share.

Color me skeptical. Not only did Palm last week file a shelf registration to raise capital via new shares or debt but there's little we know of the new "Nova" OS, other than that it's scheduled for 2009, based on Linux, and will be at least several months behind Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android as an alternative.

And did I mention that there's a recession looming? Put away the lighter, Fool. This stock will still burn your portfolio.

Brrrrrrrring! It's related Foolishness calling:

• We're losing your signal, Palm.
• Here are 9 things you can do other than invest in stocks like Palm.
• This is why the whole world is in Apple's hand.