Slather some bittersweet frosting on this layered cake of pessimism. Credit rating agency Moody's is lowering its debt rating on Sirius XM Radio
It's not the only worrywart, of course. Shares of Sirius haven't traded as low as $0.08 a share this month by accident.
The company is trying.
As of September, the satellite radio provider was staring at three huge debt maturities:
- In February, a $300 million Sirius convertible is due.
- In May, $350 million in XM bank debt must be repaid.
- In December, a $400 million XM convertible is due.
It has already been whittling away at the Sirius convertible, repurchasing the debt or swapping it out for stock. The February toll has now been taken down to $193.6 million in aggregate principal.
Between its present liquidity and its authorization to have as many as 8 billion shares outstanding, Sirius XM has enough ammo to get through February. Now it needs to clear the May and December hurdles.
Renegotiating with creditors is never easy, but buying itself time is the name of the game. Sirius XM expects to break even on a free cash flow basis in 2009, with $300 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Sirius XM is well connected, but many of its allies are struggling. General Motors
Music subscription providers like RealNetworks
In short, Sirius XM is likely going to have to get itself out of the debt-laden hole it got itself into. If it succeeds, shares of Sirius XM may be one of the best performers of 2009. If it doesn't, Nil City won't be too far away and Moody's can always say it told you so.
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