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Deere in the Spotlight?

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Looking at Foolish colleague Brian Orelli's piece Thursday on Monsanto's (NYSE: MON  ) strong quarter, my thoughts turned immediately to Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE  ) , which may benefit from not one but two trends.

The first is, of course, the global growth in agriculture, especially in the developing nations. As Brian notes, "Even in tough times, people have to eat." With more than two-thirds of its most recent quarterly net sales tied to agricultural equipment, Deere should be an obvious beneficiary of growth in global food production.

Indeed, in the farming chain, growth in seed use ultimately leads to growth in equipment purchases, and at Monsanto, seed sales were 50% ahead of the year-ago figure through December. I'm betting that those impressive figures will ultimately lead to strong sales growth for Deere's agricultural equipment.

That unit, in addition to the green tractors we all know and love, produces combines, harvesters, and a variety of other seeding and soil preparation equipment. Already, the segment's sales increased by 43% in the most recent quarter. And while it's clearly expected that earnings will dip in the next couple of quarters at Deere, Monsanto's early readings of future demand could make for a surprise or two down the road for Deere.

But there's another trend that could eventually benefit Deere: President-elect Obama's proposed infrastructure effort has received considerable attention. I've written about how I believe cement companies like Cemex (NYSE: CX  ) , Texas Industries (NYSE: TXI  ) , and possibly Eagle Materials (NYSE: EXP  ) could benefit from it.

While it doesn't compare with the size of the company's agriculture group, Deere's construction and forestry equipment division accounts for just under 20% of overall net sales. As such, should the Obama program be enacted, the company would be in a position to join the likes of Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) in a federally induced sales boom. Indeed, Deere's construction equipment includes earthmovers, crawler dozers, and dump trucks -- just the things you'd need for work on highways and bridges.

It's also important to note that -- despite a 6% pop on Thursday -- Deere's share price still closed at less than half its 52-week high. That metric, along with the company's macro possibilities and a 2.6% forward dividend, leads me to urge Fools to watch closely for a possible leap.

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The Fool owns shares of Cemex, which is a Motley Fool Global Gains selection and a Stock Advisor pick. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Fool contributor David Lee Smith does own a few shares in Deere, but not in the other companies mentioned. He welcomes your comments, questions, or kibitzing. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 09, 2009, at 4:20 PM, investmentcafes wrote:

    Thats all well and Good Supposition but did this article mention CREDIT.? Looking past the headlines and into some facts it should have..I read some articles about brazilian Farmers whom CANNOT repay wht they owe,the banks are forcing them to Liquidate the..Yup,..DEERE Equipment.So to say that just becuase there " Two" Trends is nice but before investing in DEERE or anyother Equipemnt Selling/Leasing company Wait to see what the Results from the 4th Quarter are and How those Companies Respond to the " Changed" credit market and How many of their loans to Frmers are unerwater,going underwater..ETC..Then you might have an Idea of a " Forward P/E.Without some facts of a Credit market on the Farmers whom are supposed to buy the Equipment all you have is Two trends but going where.?

    then since the same might be said for Purchasin that Equipment..needing Higher Credit scores more down payments ETC same as in the housing market creating it's own Down sided issues then to say " buying" Deere for a " LongTERM" Investment cannot be made ..YET.!

    I'd Wait for the 1st Quarter Earnings announcements and see what the companies say about " CURRENT" Credit,Affected 4th Quarter sales and Assume that whatever the market for sales is Now,1st Quarter 2009,would continue for 2 more Quarters,even if Grain prices pick-up

    Do Due Diligence,Wait for 1st Quarter Earnings calls before investing here.

    Happy Trails

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Related Tickers

2/9/2012 4:02 PM
DE $87.93 Down -0.57 -0.64%
Deere & Company CAPS Rating: ****
MON $78.33 Down -0.81 -1.02%
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EXP $33.54 Up +0.46 +1.39%
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