A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we're looking at our best members who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will be best next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is fransgeraedts, who sports a top 99.98 member rating. A member since September 2007, fransgeraedts currently has 193 active picks on CAPS out of almost 2,400 stock picks made. Achieving 82% accuracy, this All-Star has attracted 315 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Stock	CAPS Rating (out of 5)	Call	Price^	Current Score
Alcoa (NYSE: AA  )	****	Underperform	$12.30	1.05
Ann Taylor	*	Underperform	$13.84	0.49
Boise	***	Underperform	$4.92	8.94
Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO  )	*****	Underperform	$90.53	0.96
Dick's Sporting Goods	***	Underperform	$22.84	(0.51)
lululemon athletica	**	Underperform	$20.18	2.94
Macy's (NYSE: M  )	*	Underperform	$15.69	1.11
Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL  )	*	Underperform	$24.33	3.41
Talbots (NYSE: TLB  )	*	Underperform	$6.55	4.07
Tiffany (NYSE: TIF  )	**	Underperform	$33.87	0.25

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
^Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about a couple of of these stocks.

Degree of risk
Wall Street doesn't expect much out of the aluminum sector these days. With inventory sitting at historic highs, even Mad Money host Jim Cramer sees Alcoa as "dead money." Others think investors would do better mining in copper because demand there is rising and supplies are constrained. Highly rated CAPS All-Star Sunnydoo thinks they've got it wrong.

Rusal, the world's biggest aluminum producer, reported damage at a hydroelectric plant that feeds two smelters and is considering cutting back on output. Rusal produced 1.98 million tonnes of aluminum in the first six months of the year, so with the potential for cutbacks, Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP  ) and Alcoa may pick up the slack:

"Rusal's (#2) production may be hampered by damage to Hydroelectric Dam in Siberia. Got to buy heavy in to Rio Tinto (#1) and Alcoa (#3), as they may have to increase production to meet Rusal's drop off," wrote Sunnydoo last week.

Dawn of the dead
If there is something that's dead these days, it might be mall-based retail. That doesn't bode well for Macy's, despite the lift it got from a number of reports, on issues like rising home sales and prices, that suggest consumer confidence might be improving. Additional reports are due tomorrow dealing with GDP, personal income, and consumer spending. One might wonder whether the gains Macy's and other retailers enjoyed will be quickly given back.

The department-store chain has been on deathwatch for over a year now. CAPS member sdumont29 believes the May's acquisition didn't deliver the intended benefits, leading to the retailer's possible extinction:

Macy's is a dying retail dinosaur. They bought May Dept Store company and expected to reap the profits from both companies. In my mind May was much better run. They had people to actually sell you merchandise. Macy has gotten rid of almost all sales floor staff to sell the merchandise in the overcrowded and outdated stores.

All-Star BigFatBEAR probably wouldn't disagree, seeing as how he points to Macy's onerous debt levels:

Debt is greater than equity or market cap by a couple billion. Revenue hasn't completely collapsed, but operating expenses continue to make profits red rather than black. Unless they can cut way back next quarter, expect earnings to trigger a sell-off.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
It pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS every investor's opinion counts and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?