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Wealth Is Back!

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Hey, we're rich again!

Well, not quite. American household wealth is still down nearly $11 trillion since 2007. But thanks to the 58% surge in the S&P 500 and a big push to shed debt, household net worth rose in the second quarter by nearly $2 trillion -- its first gain since 2007.

Over the past few years, here's how our total net worth has fared, according to the Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report:

Year

Total Household Net Worth

2003

$46.9 trillion

2004

$52.5 trillion

2005

$58.8 trillion

2006

$63.3 trillion

2007

$63.9 trillion

2008

$52.9 trillion

2009*

$53.1 trillion

*As of the second quarter.

What strikes me about these numbers isn't how far we've fallen since 2007, but just the opposite: Net worths are now about where they were in 2004-2005, a period when everyone was excited about the powerful recovery taking hold after the post-9/11 recession. Granted, inflation has taken a not-so-insignificant bite since then. But too much consumer angst over crashing asset values is based solely on anchoring expectations to the 2007 peak -- a period when asset values of all types, from homes to stocks, were clearly overvalued.

Why's all this important? Because 70% of our economy is based on consumer spending. Whether or not you think that's healthy or sustainable, it's reality. And as we learned the hard way last year, consumers can stop spending horrifyingly quickly when they get worried. Consumer confidence, most of it tied to net worth and asset values, is more important to America than nearly any other economy in the world.

That's why if there's one "green shoot" (sorry, I had to say it) I've felt has been encouraging, it's the doubling of consumer confidence since February. As high-profile stocks like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) really started taking off after markets bottomed in March, consumer confidence quickly followed:

Month

Consumer Confidence

February

25.30

March

26.90

April

40.81

May

54.81

June

49.32

July

47.37

August

54.06

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

A consumer confidence reading in the mid-50s is hardly a sign of strength, but it's actually higher than it was last summer, before Lehman Brothers and AIG (NYSE: AIG  ) imploded, and banks like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) and Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) started to crumble.

There's no question about it: Consumers are starting to look past the deepest scars caused by the Great Recession.

Some will say this is meaningless data that won't translate into real economic growth. But there is actually real significance here: When wealth goes up, consumer confidence goes up. When consumer confidence goes up, the willingness to spend goes up. When the willingness to spend goes up, production increases, profit comes back, and investment returns.

The economy's still a mess, and areas like banking and unemployment have a long, tough road ahead. But as Warren Buffett recently put it, "the United States economy is now out of the emergency room and appears to be on a slow path to recovery."

We'll take what we can get.

For related Foolishness:

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

Fool contributor Morgan Housel doesn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article. Google is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers selection. Microsoft is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 12:45 PM, hermsoto wrote:

    i have been looking everywhere, but i cannot find any information on MJNA, which is some sort of medical marijuana distribution and taxing company.

    i looked everywhere, and there are no real articles on this anywhere,

    help?

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 4:23 PM, richthegeek wrote:

    Hmmm. So it's all better because we think that it is and because the government says that we're wealthier. But that wealth is because the S&P is up 58% - due in large part to expectations that it will continue to go up.

    In short the storm has passed because we want it to.

    I see plenty of evidence of clouds, but I don't see any real rays of sun from the camp of bulls. Pointing to the S&P going up as evidence that it will continue to go up is rather unconvincing.

    Isn't there anything else?

    Help - I'm starting to like berries and honey.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 4:28 PM, knighttof3 wrote:

    Do you have any stats on net worth of individuals? I would mightily love to know, eg, how Vikram Pandit or Lloyd Blankfein fared on an yearly basis from 2007 - 2009. Somehow these supersmart people seem to have bucked the overall trend.

    And BTW does this net worth include the Fed's balance sheet? Or does the Fed have a trillion dollars because it says it has a trillion dollars?

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 6:44 PM, waldo49 wrote:

    I don't get the math here. 2008 was 52.9 Trillion. Q2 of 2009 is 53.1 Trillion that equals 0.2 trillion aka 200 Billion. Where does the 2 Trillion come from? A typo?

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 6:54 PM, TMFDiogenes wrote:

    Hey hermsoto,

    The company changed its name from Club Vivanet to Medical Marijuana in March. The ticker is MJNA, and it's traded over the counter:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MJNA.PK

    Just an fyi, they appear to really be in start-up mode will have to generate a lot of sales growth and start making money to justify its current price.

    Ilan

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 7:42 PM, thisislabor wrote:

    Consumer confidence, most of it tied to net worth and asset values, is more important to America than nearly any other economy in the world

    Interesting that is not the confidence that causes the wealth, but the wealth that causes the confidence.

    I say interesting because one would think it to be the other way around when one reflects on this statement: "When consumer confidence goes up, the willingness to spend goes up. When the willingness to spend goes up, production increases, profit comes back, and investment returns."

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 7:51 PM, thisislabor wrote:

    Perhaps then it is propperly placed confidence that causes the wealth.

    Because, we can obviously see from the real estate fall out that it is NOT the confidence that causes the wealth... or perhaps that was ego on part of the consumer thinking they could support such a loan to begin with?

    I mean, I'm just saying. You know sometimes I don't really get that whole consumer based economy theory. because quite frankly it's not. we have enough of a manufactoring base in the economy to support the whole population with only 1/3rd of it working. at this point, it's just "an" economy, and half of it selling services and entertainment to the other half for actual needs.

    Consumer based economy. huh. why don't people just call it what it is: a modern economy. I mean are the rest of the world's economies that are first world nations any different in reality? - seriously, If I am wrong please, let me know.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 8:26 PM, xetn wrote:

    " flow of funds report definition - finance

    Shorthand for the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States, a quarterly survey published by the Federal Reserve that shows the movement of funds between households, businesses, the government, and financial institutions. It also shows whether debt levels increased or decreased and what the savings rate is. The report is released during the second week of March, June, September, and December."

    So, your assumption is that since the FED has created enormous amounts of money out of thin air, monetised debt by purchasing US treasuries, and a gigantic increase in government spending that we are somehow more wealthy?

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 9:21 PM, Poly1 wrote:

    When home values rise, that is when ppeople will start to spend..they will feel wealthier..then spending will really increase. We are now saving 6%. We are paying down our debt. For the first time.

  • Report this Comment On September 19, 2009, at 11:10 AM, Dannysea wrote:

    So much of the consumer spending we are seeing is from the same ones who have stopped making house payments. And while they are in the two-year rocking chair?: are taking cruises, going out for dinner, movies and trips of all sorts. (We have even been around some who brag how savvy they think they are.)

    Then don't forget until the bank forecloses, that $$ debt is not written off, actually showing the loss of no payments for the past several years.

    I agree that the consumer well-being is tied tight to their own experiences. And in the middle of all that existing consumer confidence, how many are gov't workers, or whose jobs cannot be eliminated? If you use the percentage of these-only consumers, you see there is very little of contentment by those living in the truly free-enterprise market.

    The MF wants there to be a bull market so intently, they are viewing the 3/8-cup full, and sidelining the 5/8-cup empty.

  • Report this Comment On September 19, 2009, at 11:42 AM, 10Beachbear wrote:

    With reference to the above comment: "2008 was 52.9 Trillion. Q2 of 2009 is 53.1 Trillion that equals 0.2 trillion aka 200 Billion. Where does the 2 Trillion come from? A typo? " I'd like to say, Yeah. Where is the 2 trillion?

  • Report this Comment On September 19, 2009, at 5:03 PM, TMFHousel wrote:

    waldo49, 10beachbear,

    $2 trillion is the increase over Q1 2009, not Q4 2008.

    -Morgan

  • Report this Comment On September 20, 2009, at 6:47 AM, jomueller1 wrote:

    It never fails to amaze me what you can prove with statistics. Now "we" are more wealthy than we thought we were! Marvelous! Only trouble is, the banks and credit card companies do not see it that way whereas our local supermarket agrees.

    Prices are up in many ways, especially the unjust property taxes. Whatever "wealth" I have because of inflated real estate does not help my cash flow. So this kind of wealth is a useless metric. What counts is the liquidity I have (or not). Believe me, that is down!

    Just look at what credit card companies charge if one cannot pay the full amount each month at a time when they have money like dirt. Is that how capitalism is supposed to work? Trample on those who fell?

    Local governments rip off people for what? If salaries are flat or supposedly fall, why does the county need 400% more than they received 5 years ago? My pension increased 12% in that time and I am the lucky one.

    It may be nice to paint a rosy picture but that does not change reality. So please, Morgan, spare me these propaganda articles!

  • Report this Comment On September 21, 2009, at 10:06 AM, jfenlon wrote:

    We have a population surplus. Because of this we have a labor surplus. When realism sets in companies stop empire building and shed jobs that don't need doing, ie. those job titles and decriptions in the newspaper that are incomprehensible. The replacement of the industrial era (manufacturing as the largest employer) with the information era (people doing things at a computer that don't produce anything tangible) is the root cause of the economy's demise. Too much consuming, too little creating, and way too many people on the government payroll, ie. bureaucrats whose salaries are paid by the taxes of the decreasing numbers of workers with real jobs. Its going to get worse before it gets better.

  • Report this Comment On September 23, 2009, at 1:08 PM, deadlysaber wrote:

    The problem of poverty in America comes as a surprise. How can a wealthy nation experience poverty? Though the rate of poverty is lower in a developed nation like America than in Africa, the problem of poverty is real. Inner-cities and rural communities in America are all affected by poverty.

    In 2007 the American government defined poverty as a family of four living with an income below $18,810. However, consider the costs in America of housing, utilities, transportation, food, health care, and child care. Even this income seems too small.

    The effects of poverty in America are many. Poor nutrition leads to poor health. Poor health makes study and work difficult. Poor education and an inability to work effects income. These problems must be considered alongside other issues: the problem of racism, discrimination against communities, and unequal access to education.

    With over thirty-five million living below the poverty line in America, poverty looms as one of the nation's biggest problems. It requires huge effort and imagination to begin solving the problem. At its heart, solving the problem of poverty is about the creative cultivation of the talents and dreams of all Americans.

    Access to education must be equal for all. Those prospering must bear the burdens of those in need. Everyone must be helped to avoid despair and to hope for change. Everyone must recognize the offensiveness of poverty in a nation like America.

    -------------------------------

    Money without intelligence is like a car without a road.

    http://www.intelligentinvestingtips.com

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