Buffett Says It's Over

It's over -- according the world's most successful investor. Yesterday, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A  ) (NYSE: BRK-B  ) CEO Warren Buffett effectively called the end of the U.S. recession, saying the economy has "sort of plateaued at the bottom." Only the day before, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said the recession "was very likely over." How should investors position themselves?

On Tuesday, Buffett said that Berkshire is buying stocks "because I am getting a lot for my money." That sounds encouraging enough, but does it mean that stocks are, in aggregate, undervalued? Unfortunately not.

Buying ... selectively
Buffett isn't an index investor -- he purchases individual securities that he believes are undervalued. Meanwhile, with the S&P 500 rallying 58% from the March 9 market low, the stock market has lived up to its reputation as a leading indicator of the economy and then some, with current valuations suggestive of a robust recovery.

Indeed, the S&P 500 index is currently priced at 19.1 times its cyclically adjusted earnings (average inflation-adjusted earnings over the prior 10 years) -- the long-term historical average is 16.3.

The ol' animal spirits are back
Rising stock prices fuel confidence -- the resurrection of the M&A market is another by-product of that process. On Tuesday, for example, software firm Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE  ) announced that it is acquiring Omniture (Nasdaq: OMTR  ) for $1.8 billion.

Buffett himself highlighted an example of the "animal spirits" returning to the market. Calling Kraft's (NYSE: KFT  ) bid price for Cadbury (NYSE: CSG  ) "a full price," he added "I've got a lot of confidence in (CEO) Irene Rosenfeld, but they have to do a lot of things right to justify this price." Berkshire Hathaway is Kraft's largest shareholder.

If you want to own equities, focus on individual stocks
The recession may well be over, but that is no reason to buy stocks indiscriminately -- in toto, the market isn't cheap. If you wish to ratchet up your exposure to equities, the best course of action is to focus on individual stocks that meet Buffett's standard -- i.e., make sure you're "getting a lot for your money."

Morgan Housel has identified high-quality businesses that are still cheap. Berkshire Hathaway is one of them; find out what the two other names are.

Take a hint from Warren Buffett's recent investments in fat-yielding Goldman Sachs and General Electric preferred shares: in this environment, dividends will be a critical component of future returns. The team at Motley Fool Income Investor can show you how to build -- and manage -- a portfolio of stocks that pay a growing dividend. To find out their top five recommendations for new money now, take advantage of a 30-day free trial today.

Alex Dumortier, CFA, has no beneficial interest in any of the companies mentioned in this article. Berkshire Hathaway and Omniture are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. Berkshire Hathaway is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. The Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days. Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 11:37 AM, handbags4hunger wrote:

    I think the economy has been showing signs of recovery for months now, the American public just hasn't fully embraced it yet...once Buffet's optimism hits home the rally is really going to take off. Pity the poor souls who panicked and jumped ship last year and sold off their 401ks....if you haven't jumped back in, it's time to get moving people before everything goes back up!

    Of course this doesn't put the unemployed back to work instantly but once cash starts flowing back in, the jobs will return.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 11:59 AM, joshbk wrote:

    There's a world of difference between "plateauing at the bottom" and recovery. What distinguishes large-scale recessions/depressions from less memorable downturns isn't just the magnitude of money lost, but the insidious after-effects while the economy gets back on its feet. Bottoming out is only half the battle, if that.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 12:16 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    Warren Buffet is a moron. He built the majority of his wealth when he had the advantage of information. Now that advantage is not his anymore (since early 2000's), he has lost billions.

    Also I don't know how KFT can buy Cadbury. Cadbury is worth $70bil and KFT is worth under $40bil. What a joke.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 12:24 PM, LegalizeMe wrote:

    How is an economy that is still shedding jobs at an unbelievable rate NOT in a recession? Almost 10% of our citizens don't have a job and countless others have suffered pay cuts or are forced to work only part time.

    Recession over my behind...

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 12:24 PM, TMFHousel wrote:

    "Now that advantage is not his anymore (since early 2000's), he has lost billions."

    FWIW, BRK shares have more than doubled since the early 2000s.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 12:58 PM, TravelingMel wrote:

    "Warren Buffet is a moron." Mikecart1 can you post your net worth and show us if you have more the Buffett?

    I think your comment is like a fat person telling a personal trainer they know nothing about exercise.

    LOL

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 1:03 PM, topsecret09 wrote:

    Buffet Is Wrong this time... He lives In an Elitist Fantasy World that bears no resemblence to what Is happening to average American citizens.Mr. Buffet Is In for a rude awakening I am afraid... http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_com...

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 1:07 PM, BMFPitt wrote:

    I just threw a few dollars into January puts... There's no way this run can continue, the market is way overbought. WHAT HAS CHANGED since March? I expect to see us back at S&P 800 through H1 of next year.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 1:08 PM, KeitaiOtaku wrote:

    I don't like the moron comment either. But... I think there's something to be thought about. Warren Buffet is not a god to be worshiped but a human being with preferences, flaws, and (obviously) incredible skill. Nonetheless, we should not idolize him, but learn what we can and make our own, solid judgments, make our own mistakes, and do better as a result.

    Warren Buffet's comments are politically incorrect, and he has become somewhat of a political figure. America is hurting badly, and we need to work hard to fix what we can, to make it better in the future, and limit the pain we're experiencing now.

    I like Bernanke's comments better. It's going to hurt for a while still, but the future is bright.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 1:13 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    Thanks KeitaiOtaku. Most people just hop on Warren Buffet's bandwagon because they just see that he is one of the richest guys in the world. There are dozens of lottery winners every year that are richer than nearly everyone in the world. Doesn't mean they are smart or anything to look up to.

    There are tons of analysts and other investors that, although have less money, are far superior when giving advice than Buffet. People should read about how Buffet got so rich.

    Going from $1 to $100 is pretty hard.

    Going from $100 to $200 is a lot easier.

    Buffet made the foundation of his empire when he had the information (insiders, analysts, tons of stock info - all before the internet). Now he has almost no advantage. He speaks in terms of end results but with no timeline. He has no clue of when things will get better. He does things long term and his basis is that "stocks generally rise over time". No really? He is at best a generic investor with tons of experience.

    People treat him like Michael Jordan of investing when in reality he isn't Michael Jordan, just someone that has been in the game for a long time. Probably better to compare to Cal Ripken due to longevity.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 1:18 PM, plange01 wrote:

    wishful thinking and a little pitch to try and raise his failing stock price! buffett owns to many companys in the real estate and building area that are in bad shape.also his poorly run geico ins is quickly losing customers and is no longer anywhere near the lowest price car insurance co.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 2:26 PM, dargus wrote:

    mikecart1, Cadbury's market cap is at about 20 billion, and that is after the huge jump on the Kraft buyout news. Perhaps you should rethink who is and is not a moron.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 3:10 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    dargus,

    It's not my fault Yahoo Finance shows market cap being $70bil. I am not the moron by default then. :)

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 3:15 PM, TMFAleph1 wrote:

    It's probably worth pausing for a moment before calling Warren Buffett a "moron" or "a generic investor with tons of experience". Neither of those assertions stands up against even a casual examination of the facts.

    Warren Buffett isn't immune from manking mistakes; however, he is more careful than most in terms of sticking to his 'circle of competence' -- which gives his pronouncements on economics and investing that much more weight. You may not agree with Buffett, but it would be foolish to dismiss his views outright.

    Alex Dumortier

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 3:41 PM, FreeNachos wrote:

    Yeah, I don't think Buffet's advantage is JUST information that anybody can find on the internet or dumb luck. He's got a long history of profitable investments.

    Come on people, keep some perspective. He may not be a God Among Men or a Mystical Oracle of Investing but he's probably worth 20 times the combined total of everyone posting on this story and then some...

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 3:58 PM, Ruhaan wrote:

    Buffett is hardly elitist or moron and also no one is asking you to blindly follow the guy. I dont believe it when I see these comments and people trying to unnecessarily drag someone down without actually knowing anything.

    Buffetts ability to read the economic picture better than most is because he owns various businesses ranging from premium product to commodity ones. As soon as he watches the direction and shift in those sales he will know what consumers are doing and what the business activity looks like in adjoining businesses.

    As far as he loosing billions, last year was the first year in so many years when Berkshire lost 10% of the book value. People get exited looking at their paper profits or get extremely nervous looking at their paper losses.. thats no Buffett's fault is it?..

    Buffett is definitely no God and I am sure he will be the first one to get embarassed by such characterisation. He is an ordinary Guy with an extraordinary ability in making investment decisions and an upright charater..

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 4:49 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    MFRB101,

    You and others should stop using the "more money = smarter/better/etc. advantage".

    Case in Point: Kanye West

    Man I should of been a lawyer hehe.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 4:51 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    ^ Meant for FreeNachos not you. FreeNachos is talking about his worth again. z.zzz....zzz.zz..z

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 4:58 PM, clubbervision6 wrote:

    WB has a lot of money, he was a smart investor, but his time is gone! Remember that the one who owns the most expensive car is not (very often!) the best driver!

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 5:18 PM, rufianno wrote:

    WARREN BUFFET IS NOT AN INVESTOR. HE IS A MANAGER OF COMPANIES.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 5:28 PM, booyahh wrote:

    sounds like another bear that missed the rally!!! LOL !!!

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 5:37 PM, fokcal wrote:

    Most of your commentators demonstrate their ignorance more than anything else... they are not worth reading at all.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 5:38 PM, CAPTAINWACK wrote:

    What did the recession mean to him? Maybe a three Martini lunch instead of four? He's totally out of touch with the real world and the people who live in it.

    It may be over for him but ask the millions of unemployed if it's over. Good OLD Warren is just following orders to help prop up the market. Who's giving these orders to him? Try his countless number of financial advisers. Clueless with no compass. Just an old man with nothing better to do with his time.

    What's his next prediction...Water is wet?

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 5:58 PM, Melaschasm wrote:

    What defines the end of a recession?

    One quarter of economic growth. The odds are decent that we will have economic growth in either the third or fourth quarter, thus it is likely the recession is over.

    However, just because the recession is over does not mean we are going to have a decades long economic boom. We could easily be at the begining of a decade of stagflation, or we might be about to crash back into a new recession in a few quarters.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 6:10 PM, modeltim wrote:

    Why take the words of a big shooter? No doubt, he is the greatest investor of his era. He's in a no-lose situation. Someone should ask him why he thinks things have bottomed out when nothing has really changed on Wall Street. Credit default swaps, toxic bank assets, smoke & mirrors all still in use and at full throttle. Who will bail 'em out next time? It won't be the Fed because they already blew their wad? Down the drain, Amerika, ready or not!

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 6:36 PM, jbrt wrote:

    YOU HAVE TO BE A REAL SUCKER TO BUY THAT ! if it is the " right time to buy now because stocks are cheap " as he supposedly says , ONE QUESTION : WHY DIDN'T HE BUY IN APRIL ? he could've got even MORE FOR HIS MONEY ! HOGWASH ! don't fall for it !

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 7:00 PM, topsecret09 wrote:

    Well,which Is It... If what he says Is true he should be loading up... http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/09/08/buffett-pulls-back-on...

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 7:09 PM, TMFAleph1 wrote:

    For all those who are hell-bent on misinterpreting or distorting Buffett's remarks, I recommend you read the transcript of the interview first:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/32870258/

    Best,

    Alex Dumortier

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 7:20 PM, jbrt wrote:

    YOU COULDN'T PAY ME TO WATCH CNBC ! where were they " when the sky was falling ? " , Kernan didn't warn anyone , Carl was too busy posin' and Knuckleheads as " thick as a brick " another " POSER ! " get real !

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 9:20 PM, AirForceFool wrote:

    I sincerly hope you fools feel tall tearing people down... take the man's (Buffett) advice or not... his style isn't necessarily for everyone... but to say he's an idiot is just silly... itemized deductions on his first tax return at the age of 13... back when you were wondering what it would be like to kiss a girl... Personally I don't like retail or cyclical businesses... they just don't work for me... I prefer more of a barrier to entry... does that make Buffet a genius and me the idiot... not really... it's probably closer to the truth then not, but not because I don't like all the investment vehicles that he uses... pledged to donate some $50B of his fortune... heck, he raised over $2M on a lunch auction... $2M to the SF Glide Foundation... I bet they think he's pretty cool...

    Say what you will, take his advise or not, but he's a Great American... that's the way I read the facts.

    Chris

    For the record, I think we're near the bottom of the bathtub, but I also feel that we have to still get across the complete bottom of the tub before we come out the other side.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 10:04 PM, topsecret09 wrote:

    Judging by some of the comments here,we have a lot of Buffet fans. Fair enough. I respect Mr Buffet for what he has accomplished,and he no doubt has a knack for finding undervalued companies. But It seems to me that he changes with the wind.... You see... In March he called this recession an "ECONOMIC PEARL HARBOR".and that It would last FIVE MORE YEARS... Barely 6 months later,he seems to have changed His tune considerably. This economy cannot come back without CONSUMERS SPENDING MONEY. That Is not happening,we are paying down our debts,and staying home. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5ZWLe8uKXE

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 10:39 PM, catoismymotor wrote:

    Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 11:08 PM, Nihonjin2 wrote:

    Catoismymotor:

    "Germans bombed Pearl Harbor"

    You weren't George W's advisor by any chance were you?

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 11:16 PM, Andreason5 wrote:

    I thought it was the Japanese who bombed Pearl Harbor?!

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 11:47 PM, PsycheDaddy wrote:

    I don't know what it's like in NYC but here in the SW, we still can't sell a new home. My experience is that all recessions started and ended with housing. In the Fall of 2007, you could tell it was coming because housing showed it. Now housing is still slow and they say we're out of it. I don't think so.

    Something smells in this whole economic environment. We have plunge protection teams by stock for the government. The media is bias towards this administraton. The US is currently monetiizing their own debt. People in the US do not trust their politician or any politician. Banks are borrowing at no interest. Unemployment is going up. The markets aren't reflecting what decision the government is making. etc. Something is fishy here, and I like many are going to set back and watch. Reading about the depression, this looks very familiar. Kind of scarey really.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 11:53 PM, paultaut wrote:

    Bath Tub is not the sort of thing you want to be in. Someone could pull the Plug.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 12:01 AM, PsycheDaddy wrote:

    Another thing, I'm not jumping into a market where the government and wall street seems to be in cohoots with each other.

    The more bad news reported over the past year the higher the market gets.

    I going to watch and see what happens when "Cap and Trade" is past. If the market goes up, I getting out of this country. lol

    Anyway, I'll find other ways to invest. Maybe buy some rent houses, start a business or farm for awhile.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 12:18 AM, AirForceFool wrote:

    Bath Tub is not the sort of thing you want to be in. Someone could pull the Plug.

    LOL... I guess my attempt failed... Someone could definately pull the plug, but I was thinking of an empty tub... where we might not go down a whole lot more, but that we could sit for a while on the bottom, with things not really getting better.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 12:43 AM, stumptownbro wrote:

    catoismymotor thank you for bringing the conversational tone back to a serious one. I do not claim to know your thoughts on Buffet but I am glad to see that you too hold Bluto in high regard.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 12:48 AM, oregonrogue wrote:

    C'Mon you phartheads, this is just for entertainment.

    Keep your heads...

    Weigh the opinions...

    Go Forth ... And Prosper!!!!!!

    Sane in NE Oregon, I Hope!!!

    Hano

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 12:57 AM, QwertyHero wrote:

    "You weren't George W's advisor by any chance were you?"

    "I thought it was the Japanese who bombed Pearl Harbor?!"

    Friggin d-bags -- he was quoting Animal House.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 4:45 AM, simpletic wrote:

    lol it was the japanese who bombed pearl harbor..

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 6:04 AM, mbouquet wrote:

    Words and Definitions are added to the dictionary all the time by humans. We as humans define a recession in that dictionary. If we go by that specific definition, then I suppose we are getting close to the end of this recession. I think we all know better. Ask all those that are jobless ! Ask Washington how our Country's Tax Base is doing. Let's re-define RECESSION in that dictionary. Congress........Take a few months off without pay. Then give us a talk on FOX NEWS.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 7:47 AM, rond10968 wrote:

    As a business writer, my job is to interview and otherwise keep in touch with small businesses of every type. From what I see in the trenches, this is not over and it is no way near to being over. Small business has been cut off from credit and it continues to be cut off. Many formerly strong enterprises that survived any number of past recessions are on their last legs. Look for a double-dip on this one after a bad holiday season, unless those in charge get out of the office and perhaps tour the wreckage of this economy.

    Ron D

    http://www.start-a-business-faq.com

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 8:29 AM, 4wheeldrifter wrote:

    This thing is just getting started. The SP500 levels we are seeing now are a fantasy. We've partied way too hard for the last 20 years and at the end had Wall Street sucker punch us with criminal behavior that will never see a courtroom.

    Personal as well as government debt is out of control, and only getting worse (at least on the government side). Unemployment is still charging hard and we have an unknown number of banks that are living on life support, or worse, getting ready to be discovered that they are beyond broke.

    No, I think reality will hit home soon enough.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 8:55 AM, gdf55 wrote:

    Some people are morons by default, other really seem to work at it. We're supposed to be respectful with our comments, so I will state unequivocably that I have the utmost respect for the effort one of our previous responders is putting into achieving moron status.

    I think most Buffett detractors have one thing in common with the rest of us: if they had inside knowledge about where Buffett was investing his money, they'd make the same trades. We normally only get to hear after the fact, sometimes months later, where he placed his bets.

    About signs that the recession is over: it's commonly stated that jobs are typically the last thing to recover after a recession. The recession itself is measured using economic indicators like GDP - if the economy isn't contracting, we're not in a recession. Swell! I think the jobs situation will be shaky for a long time - the auto industry really took it on the chin this time around.

    I don't know how many responders here were around for the 1981-82 recession, but it had similar characteristics in there being a longish period of flat economic numbers and people unable to find work. I seem to remember the time frame was commonly stated as 14 months, and that didn't include the jobs numbers.

    If that was a "bathtub bottom", what we have here is a swimming pool. We may now be just at the point where the financials have stopped bleeding and house prices have bottomed. Still, that's progress. Give it some time.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 11:32 AM, Huayra wrote:

    I've always had huge respect for mister Buffet. I think his approach truly shows how to invest and acquire long term gains.

    Everyone can make a profit and look smart enough when a market goes up like most of the year. Just like most people and institutions, including Berkshire, will loose some (or most) of their money in a down market like 2007/2008.

    The point of course is how much you loose in the bad times and how quickly you can recoup those loses. The simple fact is that companies that are fundementally healthy and with a good business model will always rebound in the end and along with regular dividend payments will proof to be good long term investments.

    There's nothing wrong with short term gains and locking in some of those gains, like around this level on the DOW, but in the end you can't really call that investing (3-6 months), So if you're trying to invest the majority of your stock holdings for the long term then there is little reason not to follow the guidelines from people like Warren Buffet and Jim Rogers. They haven't done to shabby for themselves in the end.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 12:05 PM, sept2749 wrote:

    you know, when I see a guy with billions of dollars earned in finance to wit the stock market I tend to LISTEN! Granted, if his portfolio goes down by a bil or two it's no big deal for him BUT he has to account to shareholders. Furthermore it breaks his rule :"don't lose money". I love berk. b it's like a "small" stock fund run by very brilliant and sucessful investors.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 1:58 PM, VegasMartin wrote:

    Keep an eye out for Dow 10,000, I don't see what can drive stocks higher at these levels. A lot of stocks have gotten so expensive that it's ridiculous. It's very hard to find value right now in the market. The recovery is already priced in -- what if the recovery is not as strong as investors have been hoping for? October, which is another bad month for the market, could bring that oh-so-awaited correction to the market.

    Prediction: Dow 10,000 end of September; Dow 9,400 end of October, Dow 10,000 end of November, Dow 10,500 end of December

    http://www.ShootTheBears.com

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 9:55 PM, HarryCarysGhost wrote:

    For those bashing Buffet.

    Fat ,drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son.

    C'mon watch animal house.

  • Report this Comment On September 19, 2009, at 11:48 AM, Dannysea wrote:

    Heard O'Reilly talking last night of how the White House takes any criticism personally. The WH staff then makes calls to people like WB wanting him to change their tune.

    I guess we will see in 3-6 months whether WB is truly active or just being expedient.

    Just a thought, folks.

  • Report this Comment On September 19, 2009, at 11:56 AM, eric942 wrote:

    ITS' SIMPLE REALLY......

    THERE WILL BE NO GREAT DEPRESSION.

    WE HAVE STIMULUS INTERVENTION. (GO AHEAD AND KNOCK IT , BUT THAT'S FOR A DIFFERENT DISCUSSION).

    WE HAVE STIMULUS INTERVENTION, IN 1920'S THEY DIDN'T.

    THE MARKET IS OVER BOUGHT BECAUSE IT WAS OVER SOLD IN MARCH. WAY OVER SOLD.

    IT'S A WASH.

    THIS IS A V SHAPED CORRECTION PURE AND SIMPLE.

    ARE WE HEADED BACK TO THE 07 DOW? OF COURSE NOT.

    BUT IS THE SP HEADED TO 6500 , NOT IN OUR LIVES EVER AGAIN.

  • Report this Comment On September 19, 2009, at 1:37 PM, thisguyrighthere wrote:

    --GOLD IS WORTHLESS?-- It is funny how this website espouses contrarian investing, yet is still inside the box with corrupt Wall Street financiers. Over the past decade gold has gained a whopping 293% while the S&P 500 has gained a worthless 8% and the Dow Jones has lost some 30%. A Dow high of 14000 plus a low of 7000 equals 21000 divided by 2 gives you a 50% retracement of 10,500. This should be your target to liquidate all and get out of the stock market because we are going into a depression. During the first depression the Dow continued to fall from its 50% retracement level only to bottom out and roll sideways reaching it once again 25 years later in the mid 1950s, a decade after WWII ended. This is just history speaking, not me. By the way, tell the citizens of Zimbabwe, gold is worthless, because in that country if you don't find at least 3 grams of gold a day, you will die from starvation. Always your fool.

    -J

  • Report this Comment On September 20, 2009, at 12:02 AM, thisislabor wrote:

    so the recession is over... how about the depression? when do we get to the progression?

    just curious.

    and why in the h*** are stocks trading at 19x current earnings?

  • Report this Comment On September 20, 2009, at 12:15 AM, Tacomatight wrote:

    catoismymotor wrote: Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

    Nihonjin2 wrote:

    "Germans bombed Pearl Harbor"

    You weren't George W's advisor by any chance were you?

    Andreason5 wrote: I thought it was the Japanese who bombed Pearl Harbor?!

    If you don't know the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, and that in fact, it wasn't over, you shouldn't question Buffet's advise.

  • Report this Comment On September 21, 2009, at 12:14 PM, 80sBaby wrote:

    Mikecart1,

    Warren Buffett should put all of his money in a bag, drop it on top of your head so you can no longer move, and then see if you can still come up with comments critisizing his skill. He has no idea which way the economy is going? He knows and understands huge companies that are sure indicators of how consumers are spending, and takes this info to determine their likely performance in the future. He doesn't just look up out of date info on yahoofinance.. You think he just lies to make mr market rise with no value? That would go against everything he has ever learned and would not be worth anywhere close to what he is now if he depended on his calls to move stocks. Moron.

  • Report this Comment On September 22, 2009, at 11:00 AM, RogueAccountant wrote:

    I never thought I'd say this: Either Mr. Buffett has gone completely senile or simply does not understand the definition of a recession. As as I'm concerned, unemployment rates are at a 26 year highs, GDP has contracted over the last 3 consecutive quarters and mortgage defaults are still in vogue. My intuition is that Mr. Buffett has began drinking the coolaid himself. With all due respect Warren, maybe its time you stepped aside and let your sons run things. And the only people who agree with Warren are the cheerleaders who do not understand technicals and were too attached to their stocks when they were plummeting. "Hope" and "love" for stocks do not move markets, money does. If you look at volume over the last four weeks you'll see that while indexes, collectively are going up, they are do so on very light volume. I won't buy into this market until I see volume pick up.

  • Report this Comment On September 22, 2009, at 11:25 AM, mikecart1 wrote:

    80sBaby, you are the moron and here is why:

    1) Buffet is no god. He is not someone that is unable to lie or be corrupt. You seem to think he is an angel looking out for you. In reality he could care less if you drop dead this minute.

    2) He doesn't know and neither does anyone else where the economy is going. If he knew he would of been able to call the drop in 2007. Where was he? Giving one of his worthless Omaha speeches?

    3) I didn't say lie, but I will say not saying EVERYTHING he knows. Why would he anyway? He wants to make money. He wants to make the picks first.

    4) Ok he does lie. First he says derivatives suck but later on bets on them?

    5) He owns a large % of WFC. Self explained.

    6) Because a person has money doesn't make them smart. Look at all the millionaire athletes, actors, etc.

    7) Would you still be kissing his butt if he wasn't one of the richest people in the world? Is that all it takes for people like you? You sure got some poor requirements of what makes a brilliant person. Perhaps you should go visit a your state university and go down in the research lab where students 1/3 his age are thinking and designing things that Buffet could never dream of on his best day.

    8) He is nothing but a great investor. Stop treating him like the second coming. There are way more people in the world that have contributed far more with far less.

    OWNED

  • Report this Comment On September 22, 2009, at 11:59 AM, 80sBaby wrote:

    See now that is a little more along the lines of what we can agree on. He is a "great" investor. I don't believe he is a god but I am truly amazed with his success throughout the years in both bull and bear markets from sticking to rules he has been using since he started. This man did not win the lottery, he is not an athlete, but like michael jordan he built an empire with great talent in his game. If you say he is a moron because he lost money in 2008 then everyone on the planet is a moron. And for the guys like rouge who are standing back from the market since last November, my friend you are the prime example of what warrens talking about when he say "be greedy when others are fearful" I'm sure you have missed the entire run we have made in the last six months and you are begging for the market to come down because you a crying right now.

  • Report this Comment On September 22, 2009, at 5:27 PM, Poisonpill4U wrote:

    hey whinner... I came here expecting to see people talking about the market. I did not come here to listen to a pitiful whinning character like mikecart1. If all you have is trash to hand out or to give us other commands to follow, go start your own blog or religion and let the rational & real people handle the comments here. You keep showing us your little mind and give us retarded & inaccurate comments.

    Try drinking a little less when you make ridiculous comments or quit the drugs you are on.

    This is like listening to the morons argue on CNN about a person in today's news but never getting around to the real story because of focusing on showing us how smart you are. Grow up kid.

    Have nice day to everyone else.

  • Report this Comment On September 22, 2009, at 6:10 PM, Poisonpill4U wrote:

    hey whinners... I came here expecting to see people talking about the market. I did not come here to listen to pitiful whinning characters like mikecart1 & others. If all you have is trash to hand out or to give us other commands to follow, go start your own blog or religion and let the rational & real people handle the comments here. You keep showing us your little minds and give us retarded & inaccurate comments.

    Try drinking a little less when you make ridiculous comments or quit the drugs you are on.

    This is like listening to the morons argue on CNN about a person in today's news but never getting around to the real story because of focusing on showing us how smart you are. Grow up kids.

    Have nice day to everyone else.

  • Report this Comment On September 23, 2009, at 11:06 AM, phyrne wrote:

    excuse me,but i remember selling out of cadburys around 350£ in 2002 and mr buffet or one of his vercules investing in it afterwards which cheered me up no end .does this mean hes in both still....'if so what other related pies has he got his thumbs in.wish i had his resurch team as they both seem highly priced.due diligence please,

  • Report this Comment On September 23, 2009, at 12:24 PM, plange01 wrote:

    all of a sudden with some mostly unjustified bad press moodys is looking like a strong buy.i am adding to my position.cant go wrong for long with buffett its biggest shareholder....

  • Report this Comment On September 23, 2009, at 4:30 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    Poisonpill4U, why you single me out? U mad that I told my opinion which didn't resemble kissing Buffet's behind? Yeah u mad.

    You know how I know? You hit the "Post Comment" button twice. Seems like you need to drink a little less.

    BTW: I don't use drugs or drink alcohol. Sorry that I am not your average American. I don't believe in either.

    Have a nice day and watch as I calmly hit the "Post Comment" once! :o)

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 11:21 AM, catoismymotor wrote:

    For the stuffed shirts: I was quoting Animal House, a movie, on 09/19/09, as others have noted.

    A few days ago a question was posed to me, in this thread, as to what I think of Buffet. My answer is: He is a good, patient student. I believe that much of his success has to do with his early career; keeping his debts low, being very good at a job that pays well and investing in the manner that has served him and his shareholders all these years. I like him fine and admire his restraint and focus.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 11:34 AM, outoffocus wrote:

    Warren Buffett had a vested interest in the government bailouts. Therefore I take any analysis by him on the results of those bailouts with a huge grain of salt. A more pertinent question to ask WB is how many treasury bonds does he own?

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:36 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    outoffocus is one of the few in this thread that gets "it". One huge reason why I don't like WB and think he is a lying scumbag (other than derivatives, etc.) is that he will NEVER give his picks or future plans until AFTER he has already cashed in. He plays all innocent while at the same time putting his plays in while the whole country rots.

    Basically if the world were to rain garbage a year from now, Buffet would say he predicts great sunshine for years, while he really is investing in WM.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 2:57 PM, 80sBaby wrote:

    make cart1,

    It isnt WB's job to tell you what to invest in... you want a piece of buffets info and some of his profits then buy shares of berkshire. there is reason for him not notifiying the entire public of what they should be buying or not buying. You truly make yourself look like a complete fool no pun intended.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 3:00 PM, 80sBaby wrote:

    this guy... you even have warren buffet as "the person you would like to meet" in your profile. quit with the fake gossip, quit reading that jim cramer bs and grab a real book by benjamin grahm. i have no more to say to you.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 3:30 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    Yeah I want to meet him so I can tell how I really feel lol.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 9:50 AM, jwe3 wrote:

    It may be over for Warren Buffett, just not for the rest of the country.

    "Plateauing at the bottom..."

    Yawn.

    Lemme know when it starts back up, Warren.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 12:09 PM, AeroFool wrote:

    But, since when does Buffet make accurate macro predictions? This is stage 2 of a debt deflation. Likely we are going to new lows in the stock market. As I told the Motley Fool founders four years ago, your portfolios will outperform the index,...the problem is that both returns will be negative, likely not only in nominal terms, but certainly in real terms. The next crash within six months will likely be from a gov't debt default somewhere. Hard assets offer protection and in some cases, gains. Gold will continue to outperform as it has since 2001.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 12:22 PM, GaTechAlum wrote:

    mikecart1 - It appears from your posts that you have a serious case of Warren Buffet envy!

    I don't hear anyone saying anything except they think he is a great investor - which you seem to agree with.

    The term moron comes from a psychological clasification system that is no longer in use, however, the classification was for a person with mild mental retardation leading to a mental age of between 7 and 12 years old.........so, does this accurately describe Warren Buffet? I vote NO.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 12:24 PM, Celtics17 wrote:

    Warren Buffet lost all credibility when he endorsed ObaMarx. How can we be in recovery when government is trying to destroy the American economy? I'll stay away until 2010 mid-term elections, when patriots take back Congress and stop this crazy socialist train wreck. Until then, I'll write put options to compound cash and listen closely to macro guys who tell it like it is: Grantham, Gross, El-Erian, Schiff. Now more than ever, risk management rules the day.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 1:39 PM, Loki45 wrote:

    Buffet is just a bull and he is right when markets go up and wrong when they go down. Consequently, he made his money in the 1982-2000 bull market, but that doesn't render him any credibility nowadays. Don't follow his advice; most stocks are way too expensive considering the state of the global economy. There will be way better opportunities in the future once the still ongoing bear market has run its course.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 1:45 PM, RiskAverseAlert wrote:

    No disrespect intended toward Mr. Buffett given his record, but there may be a new dynamic at work since 2007 explaining his battered performance over the interim, as well as his misguided view on economic prospects presently. Given apparent crumbling in some of the foundational elements forming his perspective, and given his seeming willingness to ignore this, I am far less impressed with Mr. Buffett's thoughts at this moment. In many ways I find him in similar position as Mr. Bernanke: plainly talking up his book, rather than exercising such due diligence as acknowledges the extraordinary magnitude of contemporary risks.

    get-alert.co.nr

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 2:02 PM, pagan327 wrote:

    in the last two years buffet has lost his ass!

    and he can afford too!

    he,s just pumping it up now to try and save himself from looking like a big looser

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 3:18 PM, elsiejay wrote:

    I find it a little anoying to hear people refer to those that are unemployed as "being in touch with the real world" with the implication that only by being unemployed to can one have any "real world" knowledge. I feel for those who have lost their jobs in this economy, but their situation does not give them special insight.... any more than being a gazillionaire gives one God-like status. There is plenty of evidence that the super-rich can be as selfish and mean-spirited and cowardly as anybody, especially in todays politial/economic environment.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 3:55 PM, PsycheDaddy wrote:

    In setting on the sidelines and watching all of the economic troubles we're going through, I think the inexperienced president, right after he took office, was talking about how dire straits we were in and the markets continued to worsen. He learned quickly that he and his helpers had to talk up the markets.

    Then he discovered he needed others like WB and CNBC(GE) to help talk up the markets before his presidency collapsed. Before he even got his campaign started to bring us into socialism. He has gotten big investors, the media, wall street and the banks to talk up the markets through his payoffs in the form of bailouts, tarp and stimulus program. This fake economy, I am not believing. And WB is on his side due to patriotism and will help him talk up the markets. It might work and it might not. But to me, it's too risky to invest until I see another crash, then I'll jump in.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 6:05 PM, Kevin062 wrote:

    I have no personal opinion on whether Warren Buffett has lost his mind or his touch in investing but I do see that there is a lot of totally nonconstructive name calling going on in this thread. What about trying to offer some reasonable directions for investing which is what this entire website and discussion board was founded for?

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 6:49 PM, dlcapo wrote:

    He doesn't mean it's over and things will be back to normal tomorrow. Just means we've hit bottom and seen the worst. Healing takes awhile longer.

    The market is starting to recover 6 mo. ahead as usual.

    My 401 mutual which I didn't sell has recovered nearly 35% since Mar. I think thats an indication things are changing for the better.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 7:06 PM, saguarobeach wrote:

    Please, everyone, this Buffet/Bernanke discussion is pretty silly - a recession means a contracting economy, typically measured by changes in GDP. If GDP decreases for two or more quarters, most economists call this a "recession". All Buffet and Bernanke and others are saying when they say the "recession is over" is that GDP has stopped decreasing. They're right. They're not saying everything's fine, no one is feeling any pain, or no one will lose any more jobs. This is a market-forum, not a political or society forum. We should talk about economics and markets, and in that context the recession appears over because GDP appears to have stabilized and people think it will increase in the future.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 8:12 PM, budbaby wrote:

    The recession is over. It is time to buy. WB or not I drive 70 miles to culinaire school everyday there is a lot more traffic on the road in the last few months. I am a retired UAW member 32 years in Fenton, MO . Most of the people I go to school with work in restaurants they say business has almost doubled since May. I think that is a pretty good indicator.This is dejavu all over again. Ford is the Chrysler of thr 80's money to be made.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 10:29 PM, barbyoungs wrote:

    I agree somewhat with Buffett's attitude with the ecomony going forward. I am in the Real Estate Bus. for 31 yrs. there is no positive growth in real estate sales, yes, the media says sales are up, it is the foreclosures, and the refinances that are moving. The values (just like the stock market) were sooooooo over valued it is going to take a few more years to level out the real value of property-- only until the foreclosure market ceases will property values stabilize once again. People need to understand home ownership is owning shelter, it is not a vechile to retire on or borrow against to go on vacation, the average american borrower all their equity out of their homes when values were high, and that is the problem we are having today. I also agree that Ford and also GM will come back STRONG... They are the Backbone of our COUNTRY..... We will survie this and will come back STRONGER.>>>> as once said by a foreginer, we need to keep AMERICA STRONG, where would we go from here... so true.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 11:11 PM, oldsteve1926 wrote:

    Read "Generations - The history of America's Future." This downturn is part of an 80 year cycle repeated since settlers first came to the N. American shores. The S&P is overvalued. Look what happened 80 years ago and learn. Buffet is "One of the people I consult." He is on the President's team. Is his announcement part of the cheerleading going on in the media or is he really convinced? My take is that it will be a cold winter.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 11:17 PM, ozzfan1317 wrote:

    I like Buffet but it is important to remember he is a Businessman and Investor who is really good at both and he made his money from hard work (Mentally) And Patience.

  • Report this Comment On September 27, 2009, at 3:40 AM, timezmoney wrote:

    Lets suppose that Buffet and Bernake are right, if they are both wrong we are in trouble. But all you have to do is inflate your way out of the recession. Let the dollar go down untill the balance of trade improves, let the commodities go up. With interest rates low cash will start to flow back in to the economy.And get out of Iraq and Afganistan.

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 11:33 AM, dpcomstock wrote:

    Blood in the streets! People are nervous! Time to buy!

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 6:27 PM, Royzo wrote:

    Amazing how the massively ignorant (for the most part) gather together in a cabal. So needy and insecure that they can't feel a sense of accomplishment w/o trashing someone whom they haven't the tools to even remotely be able to evaluate. I'd explain further, but there are so few of you who could learn anyway - it's not my job to try to educate you all. BRK will top its' all-time high of $151,200 in the next 12 months, or I'm as stupid as most of you!

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 6:30 PM, Royzo wrote:

    (the above applies principally to the earliest comments)

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 6:55 PM, Royzo wrote:

    Alex Dumortier, why do you waste your energy and talent trying to convey knowledge to such a vast group of vacuous h-wits? Their comments reveal such breathtaking ignorance that it's an obvious fool's errand to try to inform them. Having learned only W.B.'s name and a few superficial alleged facts likely gleaned from "USA Today" they willing make utter fools of themselves by venting such out-of-context silly opinions that they totally contradict their efforts to convince us to elevate their expertise above Warren's. You can't improve their alleged minds! Why bother?

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 8:34 PM, motovelo wrote:

    WB has been misunderestimated from day one. He is not always correct and does not always act in a morally responsible way, but he is a fairly straight guy who does know money (business). Call him a moron and act accordingly at your own financial risk. He is not a genius but he knows how to win.

    To all of you with the serious political hangups: take a deep breath, quit watching Fox and think for yourselves. The USA is not going fold. It survived Bush, it will survive Obama, and it will survive whoever comes next.

  • Report this Comment On October 21, 2009, at 9:05 PM, ScottAger wrote:

    If someone could please toss me a billion dollars, I will gladly accept the role of Designated Moron and wear the title proudly. Since I was raised with good manners, I won't use it on anybody else.

  • Report this Comment On October 21, 2009, at 9:08 PM, ScottAger wrote:

    @pagan327 - Is your investing better than your spelling ?

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