This Is Exactly the Time to Buy These Stocks

For many investors, picking the precise time to buy a stock is one of the most anguishing aspects of investing. Too often, we're plagued with fear that we're too early, too late, or that we will buy at exactly the wrong time and watch our new shares fall off a cliff.

Certainly, it is a volatile time for stocks, but investors focused on building long-term wealth know that -- regardless of daily ups and downs -- this recessionary period offers one of the best chances to buy stocks on the cheap. Seasoned value investor Bill Lippman has admitted to seeing great opportunities in the market today, and even President Obama has weighed in and encouraged people to buy stocks for long-term investment.

OK, I'll buy. But which ones?
If you're like many other investors looking to buy a cheap stock today, you're probably tempted by reliable and relatively stable returns in large caps like Chevron (NYSE: CVX  ) , CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS  ) , or Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) , which are trading at values not seen in years. But if history is any lesson, you're selling yourself short precisely because this is the same, conservative approach many other investors are taking.

Looking back, many of the market's best stocks, like Hansen Natural (Nasdaq: HANS  ) , Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG  ) , and XTO Energy were small caps during the last recession, and have since grown into multibillion-dollar companies. You may know that small caps outperform others over the long term, but small-cap companies have also beaten large caps in the year following the past 10 recessions.      

For instance, Money Magazine points out that after the 1973-74 downturn, small caps beat large stocks for 10 years between 1974 and 1983. And after the Great Depression, small stocks led the market for 11 of the next 13 years.  

Yeah, but this time could be different
So how is the "small caps outperform everything" theory holding up in this recession, what many are trumpeting as the worst financial environment since World War II? If we look from what many are now acknowledging as the start of the recession (early December 2007) to the market bottom in March, we see that stocks -- small and large alike -- have all seen a similarly severe pounding.

Index

Return from 12/3/07 - 3/9/09

Russell 2000 US Small Cap Index

(46.2%)

Russell 1000 US Large Cap Index

(44.9%)

Russell 3000 Broad-market Index

(45.0%)

Source: Russell Index Calculator. Returns from the beginning of the recession, Dec. 3, 2007, to the stock market low March 9, 2009.

Despite all the predictions flying around, no one knows if stocks have found a bottom or when the recession will end. But since the March low, small caps have once again bolted out of the gate.

Index

Return from 3/9/09 - 8/21/09

Russell 2000 US Small Cap Index

66.9%

Russell 1000 US Large Cap Index

52.8%

Russell 3000 Broad-market Index

53.9%

Source: Russell Index Calculator. Returns from March 9, 2009, to Aug. 21, 2009.

This is only a small window to compare performance, of course, but the data does lend evidence that, once again, small-cap stocks that don't attract the same amount of attention from analysts or institutional funds tend to be more significantly mispriced. For this reason, an investor is more likely to uncover a good value on a small-cap stock with strong fundamentals and a solid balance sheet before the mainstream market catches on.

And don't get too caught up in timing the end of the recession: According to State Street Global Advisors, in the three years following the midpoint of each of the last three recessions, small-cap stocks delivered a solid advantage, particularly relative to large caps, returning an annual average of 8% more than large-cap stocks.

Many places to start
Here are some small caps that I've been looking at for their strong growth and return on equity, as well as low-to-nonexistent debt to equity ratio:

Company

Return on Equity (TTM)

3-year EPS Growth

PetMed Express

29.2%

21.7%

VASCO Data Security (Nasdaq: VDSI  )

18.3%

24.5%

GigaMedia (Nasdaq: GIGM  )

16.8%

45.6%

Source: Motley Fool CAPS, as of Aug. 7.
TTM = trailing 12 months. EPS = earnings per share.

You may find these stocks an interesting place to start your own research, or you may eschew them based upon your personal investment plan. For more ideas, you may want to tap the talent of some Foolish small-cap experts: the analysts at the Motley Fool Hidden Gems newsletter service. The team is especially excited about the opportunity to nab some small, strong performers at bargain-basement prices today.

The risk and volatility inherent in today's market make it even more important for investors to seek solid businesses, rather than simply chase cheap stocks. Hidden Gems will help there, too, giving you plenty of in-depth research on companies and lots of great stock ideas. These are available with a no-cost, risk-free, 30-day trial, just by clicking here.

Fool contributor Dave Mock would have avoided an embarrassing incident if he had known that the lap pool was not for wading. He owns shares of Pfizer. GigaMedia and Hansen Natural are Motley Fool Rule Breakers picks. VASCO Data Security is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection. Pfizer is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. The Fool's disclosure policy is always thinking small to go big.


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  • Report this Comment On August 25, 2009, at 9:20 AM, VerySharp wrote:

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  • Report this Comment On August 29, 2009, at 5:15 PM, Testator wrote:

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  • Report this Comment On April 15, 2010, at 1:59 PM, DJDynamicNC wrote:

    GigaMedia looks to be a good call. I've looked into it and I think I'll be adding that one to the portfolio with my next batch of purchases. Casual gaming is well-monetized these days, and Giga is well positioned on that and other tech openings. Thanks for the heads up, Fool.

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