Smart Move, Ciena

Recs

6

Be A Motley Fool Millionaire!

David Gardner's top pick took an epic run of 1,334%! See what he’s recommending that you buy NEXT.

So I hear analysts at S&P and other firms aren't thrilled with Ciena's (Nasdaq: CIEN) decision to grab a piece of Nortel this week. Analysts worry about the "significant integration efforts" it will entail, and fret over the disappearance of Ciena's net cash position.

Well, boo-hoo. But I've got a slightly different reaction to the news:

Way to go, Ciena!
Recent months have seen Nortel's erstwhile rivals hard-pressed to control their drooling. Ericsson (Nasdaq: ERIC) shelled out $1.1 billion to acquire Nortel's wireless assets. Avaya (a former Lucent subsidiary) snapped up Nortel's enterprise business for $900 million.

But some of the biggest names in telecom have so far played the wallflower at Nortel's funeral -- Nokia's (NYSE: NOK) pretending it doesn't speak English, Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) and Juniper (Nasdaq: JNPR) aren't talking, and Cisco's (Nasdaq: CSCO) staring at its toes, hands firmly planted in its pockets. Not so, Ciena. This up-and-coming telecom equipment salesman brazenly strode to the casket this morning and began rifling through the pockets of Nortel's corpse. And what did Ciena find?

Not pocket change
On Wednesday, Ciena confirmed it will shell out a combined $521 million in cash and stock to acquire "substantially all" of Nortel's optical networking and carrier ethernet assets. The prizes will be "complementary" to Ciena's existing switching and transport businesses. But that's an understatement.

According to Ciena's press release, the acquired assets generated $1.36 billion in revenue for Nortel last year, and based on their performance through the first half of 2009, are on track to produce another $1.1 billion of revenues this year, our anemic economy notwithstanding. For those of you keeping score, that's roughly twice the size of Ciena's own trailing revenue stream.

But here's the best news: This works out to a purchase price of less than 0.5 times sales. Even if you include Ciena's estimate of $180 million in integration-related costs as part of the price Ciena is paying, you're still looking at just over a 0.6 times valuation -- fully one-third lower than the 2.0-times-sales valuation that investors currently pay for Ciena's own shares.

Foolish takeaway
Is Ciena taking an enormous gamble? Sure it is. The company plans to move 2,000 Nortel workers into its own employ, essentially doubling the size of Ciena's existing workforce. It's betting the bulk of its cash reserves on the deal's success. Also, the profitability of these assets is in question, which could throw a wrench into a price-to-sales analysis. After all, there's a reason Nortel went bankrupt. But at this price, it's a good bet to make; Ciena should be able to put these assets to profitable use in time.

Call me crazy, but I think this is a steal of a deal for Ciena -- and a great time to own the stock.

“Make Big Money With Options” Motley Fool CFO Ollen Douglass recently made over $100,000 buying options on 7 well known stocks. Now we’re committed to turning his small fortune into a massive one! And we want you to join us! Enter your email address to hear more:

Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own shares of any company named above. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 07, 2009, at 5:52 PM, DrBojangles wrote:

    It's hard to gauge the merits and demerits of this one. Let's look a little harder.

    Firstly, this is just an opening bid for Nortel's 'Metro Ethernet' (MEN) division. It's very possible that another bidder will enter the ring with a substantially better offer.

    Secondly, there's a lot of legacy products in the coffin that compete directly with Ciena's own offerings and don't contain any offer any particular technical advantages over what Ciena already have. So those are worth nothing to Ciena, other than ensuring someone else (Huawei?) doesn't get them. There are some diamonds twinkling in the dross though; especially the 40 G and 100 G stuff that Nortel have done well. I just don't see those being worth such a huge chunk of Ciena's cash.

    Finally, I'm enthusiastic about Ciena's strategy to merge packet and optical systems using their CN4200 and the new CN5400 products. I don't want their attention diverted playing with Nortel's worn toys thanks.

    Dr Bo

  • Report this Comment On October 08, 2009, at 12:19 AM, TMFDitty wrote:

    Unlikely. Reports I've seen had Wall Street initially unhappy with Ciena's bid -- the analysts were expecting these assets to sell for something like $350 million or so. So if $520 million is deemed to be a lot, I would not expect to see a higher bid come from elsewhere.

    Just my opinion, of course. Take it for what it is worth (i.e. $0.02).

    --TMFDitty

Add your comment.

Compare Brokers

TD AMERITRADE
more info
ShareBuilder
more info
Power E*Trade

more info
Scottrade
more info
Fool Disclosure

DocumentId: 1002200, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 12/5/2009 12:25:10 PM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...

The Must-Read Story on Fool.com
The Dumbest Stimulus Plan to Date

Related Tickers

12/4/2009 4:01 PM
ALU $3.43 Up +0.02 +0.59%
Alcatel-Lucent (AD… CAPS Rating: **
NOK $12.70 Down -0.05 -0.39%
Nokia Corp (ADR) CAPS Rating: ****
CIEN $12.58 Up +0.47 +3.88%
Ciena Corp CAPS Rating: ***
CSCO $24.16 Up +0.33 +1.38%
Cisco Systems, Inc… CAPS Rating: ****
ERIC $9.62 Down -0.03 -0.31%
Telefonaktiebolage… CAPS Rating: ***

Community: Investing Wiki

Term Of The Hour

Falling knife: A falling knife is a stock that has dropped dramatically in price over a short period of time.

Want to learn more or edit this definition?
Click here to read more!