Is Wells Fargo a Buy?

On Monday, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) upgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) from "neutral" to "attractive," citing the Wachovia acquisition as a long-term earnings driver. The market's response was unequivocal, with the shares gaining 7% on the day to close at $28.09. They're up slightly since then. Did you miss the train, or is the giant California lender still worth buying?

At first glance
Relative to its peer group, Wells Fargo shares look pricey on the basis of price-to-book value multiples:

Company

Price/Book Value

Price/Tangible Book Value

US Bancorp (NYSE: USB  )

1.830

3.680

Wells Fargo 

1.570

2.920

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  )

1.170

1.840

PNC Financial

1.100

2.400

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  )

0.747

1.510

Citigroup

0.330

0.608

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Nevertheless, Wells Fargo has consistently traded at a premium to its peers. So let's take a look at different indicators.

Tracking the "chairman indicator"
Last June, Wells Fargo Chairman Dick Kovacevich bought approximately 40,000 of his bank's shares on the open market at $26.05 per share -- his first share purchase since 1998, at a price that is 9% below today's prices:

Date

Number of Shares/Average Price

Wells Fargo
Total Return

S&P 500 Total Return

KBW Bank Index Return

June 6, 2008

40,398 @ $26.05

18%

(20%)

(33%)

With hindsight, purchasing shares at the beginning of June 2008 proved to be too early. At that time, very few people could foresee the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the Treasury's involvement, or the March 2009 market low. Nonetheless, despite these events, the return on that transaction has already far exceeded that of the broad market and the banking sector.

"Highly actionable"
Around the time of the purchase, Michel Painchaud of research company Market Profile Theorems, called insider purchases at Wells Fargo "highly actionable" -- a reliable "buy" signal -- based on his company's model that tracks insider activity at Wells Fargo, including Kovacevich's buying and selling history.

Painchaud went on to say that Kovacevich has been a prescient seller, earning the highest possible accuracy rating for his insider transactions. With his next purchase of shares, Kovacevich showed he's equally canny when it comes to buying:

Date

Number of Shares/Average Price

Wells Fargo
Total Return

S&P 500 Total Return

KBW Bank Index Return

March 5, 2009

100,000 @ $8.05

254%

57%

145%

Kovacevich hit it out of the park and into the parking lot that time; in fact, his timing was near perfect. March 5 marked a 13-year low in Wells Fargo's stock; Kovacevich picked up 100,000 shares, paying just a quarter of a dollar over the intraday low. The early comparative returns suggest this will prove to be a remarkable investment.

(You may think I have cherry-picked Painchaud's comments after the fact. In truth, I made note of them at the time and went on to buy Wells Fargo in July 2008, paying $22.75 per share.)

Looking back: valuation and performance
Another way to analyze Wells Fargo without resorting to a peer-group comparison is to look at its valuation in a historical context. Wells Fargo shares are changing hands around 1.6 times book value. Looking at the historical series for this multiple from Capital IQ, which starts at the beginning of March 1994, shows that shares never traded this low prior to the credit crisis. The price-to-book value multiple reached a low of 1.90 on Dec. 1, 1994. The following table shows the shares' relative performance since then:  

Date (P/BV Multiple)

Wells Fargo
Annualized Total Return

S&P 500
Annualized Total Return

KBW Bank Index
Annualized Return

Dec. 1, 1994

1.90

15.2%

7.9%

4.1%

An annualized return of 15.2% over a 15-period is a fine performance, and it's all the more impressive since it got no help from the multiple, which declined 16% over that period.

Wells Fargo's current price-to-tangible book value multiple is 2.92. Here, there is precedent for lower values: The multiple saw values less than 2.92 in nearly every month over a 38-month period between 1994 and 1997. However, even had one bought the shares at the highest valuation during that period -- a price-to-tangible book value of 3.35 -- one would still have made out very well:

Date (P/TangBV Multiple)

Wells Fargo
Annualized Total Return

S&P 500
Annualized Total Return

KBW Bank Index
Annualized Return

Feb. 25, 1997

3.35

9.4%

3.9%

(2.4%)

Putting it all together
Wells Fargo is a superbly well-managed organization; it's little wonder that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A  ) (NYSE: BRK-B  ) is the largest shareholder. I think Goldman's assessment is correct; the market has not fully accounted for the incremental earnings power of Wachovia. Wells Fargo shares are no longer a screaming buy, but I do expect them to beat the market's return by several percentage points. However, investors shouldn't expect outperformance similar to that of the last 15 years. After all, Wells Fargo is now the nation's third-largest lender by total deposits and market capitalization.

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Alex Dumortier, CFA, has a beneficial interest in Wells Fargo, but not in any of the other companies mentioned in this article. Berkshire Hathaway is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor and Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. The Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (6) | Recommend This Article (21)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 08, 2009, at 5:52 PM, gman415 wrote:

    Its tough to compare WFC with the other banks as its peers raised a lot of capital below tangible capital levels in the Spring thus lowering their book values. WFC has raised the minimum amount of capital in the most shareholder friendly way possible thus preserving its earnings power at the expense of its book value multiple. WFC has more earnings power than its peers.

    Still, regulators are likely to raise capital levels to a level higher than WFC is currently operating at that may drain some of its expected earnings growth.

    WB should provide ample growth opportunities over several years for WFC. WB doesn't sell the same products. THE Golden West franchise is in a high growth region that had no product offerings other than CDs and ARMs and the cost savings between the two should provide near term benefits as well.

  • Report this Comment On October 08, 2009, at 7:11 PM, ron153 wrote:

    Excellent article..except that I think Wells' stock will substantially outperform the market from here. So does the Goldman analyst. He said the stock has 33% upside from their $35 price target, which would put it at 46. The market woefully undervalues the Wachovia acquisition. Wells approximately doubled its deposit base for very little cost, and each company can now distribute a wide variety of insurance and financial products over a much larger network. Remember Wells has the highest net interest margins of any major bank. All htat before we even get to WB's investment banking operations, which will service a lot of companies involved in restructurings. Dick Kovacevich called it the most attractive deal he has ever seen. The earnings power is enormous. I think the stock is still very inexpensive here. The carping about capital is by those who do not understand its meaning.

    Ron Beasley

    Investment Advisor

    www.rwbi.net

  • Report this Comment On October 08, 2009, at 7:24 PM, NOTvuffett wrote:

    Maybe I am stupid about this, but their purchase of Wachovia makes them a buy, not a smoking hot deal right now, but something to hold for years.

  • Report this Comment On October 08, 2009, at 8:28 PM, justhinkaboutit wrote:

    All I have to say, buy it while you can. Think about future earnings per share .......

  • Report this Comment On October 10, 2009, at 1:09 PM, GiantBFT wrote:

    Wells Fargo will beat earnings in 4Q just watch when they pay back the tarp$$ that should have been done months ago but Geitner said no with his stress tests of banking inst's. He should do a Stress test on the WHBO and remaining TARP funds and return it to treasury.

  • Report this Comment On October 26, 2009, at 4:28 PM, alabtgr55ac2e wrote:

    I like the integrity of Wells Fargo over the years. All the rest is fine and good reasons to purchase, but if they don't run their business with integrity somewhere in the future it will come back to bit them.

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