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3 Secrets to Crush the Market

I was talking with Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner at lunch recently. (That's one of the best things about working here: picking the brains of one of the best investors around.) We were talking about his investing strategy, and if you’ll give me a minute, I'd like to pass along three secrets he shared with me that have helped him crush the market for more than 20 years.

First secret
The conversation started when I asked him why he likes to pay up for stocks -- that is, buy more shares as the price rises. Now, me, I'm more of a value investor. I crunch the numbers, look to see how the company has grown in the past, analyze what the market is expecting today, and try to buy when the two don't match. In other words, buy when stocks are on sale (like they have been recently, and still are in my opinion).

David answered that, over time, he's learned to look beyond the numbers. Sure, they're important, but even more important is what a company is capable of. Not this quarter or next quarter, which is about as far into the future the market really looks, but two, five, or 10 years down the road.

Take Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN  ) , for instance. David bought it at $3.24 (split-adjusted) back in September of 1997. At the time, it was "just" an online bookseller. People were saying it was overvalued, Barnes & Noble and Borders were going to eat its lunch, and just wait until Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  ) got into the game. But David was looking beyond that. He saw a company that had figured out how to use the Internet to sell stuff on the cheap. It didn't need the overhead of a storefront and sales staff. And as it continued to build its community, the opportunity was huge.

And we all know what happened. With low overhead, Amazon sold stuff more cheaply, undercutting its storefront competitors. The community and its recommendation engine got stronger. And today, Amazon has revenue of more than $20 billion and has made a profit for the past six years, throwing off billions of dollars in free cash flow, selling everything from books to Zytel knives.

More recently, David's done the same thing with surgery-revolutionizing Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG  ) . So far, so good.

Second secret
When he first started investing, David said a little later, he hunted around in small-cap land, looking for companies with huge growth opportunities. He managed to find several that were the No. 3 or 4 companies in their field that he thought looked pretty good. What could be better for growth than aiming to be No. 1, after all?

Well, as you might imagine, that didn't work out so well. The companies that were already No. 1 remained in place, growing at the expense of those third- or fourth-best guys he found.

From this, he learned that the best place to be was in those No. 1 companies. For instance, he owns shares of Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) , the giant in its field, and Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI  ) , by far the largest third-party video game developer. Those have been very satisfying investments. And though Amazon seemed surrounded by larger competitors, it was actually the top player in the brand-new, online retail space.

Third secret
David finished up our discussion by highlighting something that is near and dear to many Fools' hearts.

He doesn't buy companies like Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP  ) or Amazon, or recommend companies like market-leader FedEx (NYSE: FDX  ) to Stock Advisor subscribers, just to sell them a few quarters later. He buys to hold for the long term. In fact, he still owns shares of Amazon from that 1997 purchase. And even after all the ups and downs the stock has had over the years, he's sitting on a 24-bagger. That's an average annual gain of 32% for 12 years.

That's the way to crush the market.

Your lesson
There you have it -- three secrets to David's success. Look beyond the numbers, favor the No. 1 operator, and buy with the intention of holding for the long term. If you take these three lessons to heart, I believe you can kick your portfolio into a higher gear.

David hand-picks one stock every month for subscribers to our Stock Advisor newsletter service. Of his first seven picks, he's sold only one; another is a 14-bagger, and a third is a five-bagger. And over the course of seven and a half years, his picks are crushing the market to the tune of 50 percentage points on average. His secrets work.

Right now, we're offering a free 30-day trial of Stock Advisor so you can learn what other secrets he uses, what those seven picks are, and what he just chose this month. You get all that, plus his brother Tom's picks, which are also handily beating the market. There's no obligation to subscribe. Get 30 days of access today, just by clicking here.

David fan Jim Mueller owns shares of Activision and Intuitive Surgical and is a beneficial owner of Microsoft, but has no position in the other companies mentioned. Activision, Amazon, and FedEx are all recommendations of Stock Advisor. Intuitive Surgical and Suntech were chosen for Rule Breakers. Microsoft and Wal-Mart have been highlighted by Inside Value. The Fool's disclosure policy is on double secret probation.


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  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2009, at 3:39 AM, exseries7 wrote:

    With all the recent bad press surrounding robotic prostate surgery's side effects as published by JAMA, doesn't that make Intuitive Surgical a bit more risky now?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125547464590583545.html

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2009, at 3:41 AM, exseries7 wrote:

    With all the bad press surrounding robotic prostate surgery as published in JAMA, doesn't that make Intuitive Surigical more risky now?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125547464590583545.html

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2009, at 8:20 AM, TMFGebinr wrote:

    Hi exseries2,

    Actually, a reading of the JAMA article indicates that the study was flawed. One, it counted Medicare recipients, which means that the patient must go to the doctor and complain about ED (for instance) and then the doctor must code it in the diagnosis to bill for it. Not ideal in that it doesn't follow people for a period of time after the surgery, nor does it indicate how many had ED before the surgery. In no way was this a trial along the lines of what a new drug must go through before approval -- that is with a randomized population and controls. That kind of trial I would trust a lot more than a review of historical records, which is what this article was about.

    Two, the data is from 2003 to 2007 (I believe that was the end date), a time when prostatectomies by robot were still growing. For all kinds of procedures, the more practice and skill a doctor has, the better the outcome. During that time, many doctors were still learning how best to use the instrument. Today's robots have two control panels, which allows guided teaching of how to use the robot.

    Three, the database was limited. The only geographic regions mentioned were Detroit and California. Further, is 8800 people a large enough sample from a large enough area of the country to validate the results?

    Four, the risk of a complication like ED is high for any treatment of prostate cancer. Is it statistically significantly higher for robotic surgeries? How does the skill level of the surgeon play into that? It takes about 150 procedures to become proficient in this technique using the robot. I'm sure it takes a similar number for the other techniques (laparoscopy or open, for instance). I don't believe there was any attempt to control for the presumed skill level of the surgeon in looking at the outcomes.

    Five, it was (or has been, elsewhere) clearly demonstrated that blood loss, hospitalization time, use of pain medication, and healing time are lower, much lower in the case of blood loss (one surgeon told me that the robotic surgery patient loses about 2 ounces of blood compared to an open surgery patient who loses about a quart (32 ounces)) and recovery time (the same surgeon said 2 weeks vs 6 weeks), for the minimally invasive procedure, especially for the robot surgery. These factors must also be factored into the equation.

    The WSJ article linked doesn't address any of these issues and I doubt the "traders" referenced therein have looked that closely, either.

    Note, as I wrote in the above article, I have a long position in ISRG, so be aware of that when reading my comments. However, I've been following this company for over a year, possibly longer than many of the traders who are looking to make a quick buck, based on what they think will happen to the stock price thanks to an, on-the-surface, negative article. (Thanks to TMFBreakerKevin for some of the above information.)

    Cheers,

    Jim

  • Report this Comment On October 19, 2009, at 3:29 AM, rustys09 wrote:

    ******SELL ACTIVISION STOCK**************

    ********BREAKING NEWS*****************

    A Revolt by PC Gamers

    On Saturday morning, Rob Bowling Community Relations Manager for Activision's subsidiary, Infinityward broke the news to the PC gaming world that the PC version of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 will not support dedicated servers but will instead use a match making service known as IW-net similar to Xbox Live.

    Once the news broke gamers from all over the world immediately began to cancel their pre-orders of the highly anticipated game. Amazon has estimated to have lost $120,000 dollars in sales and the news is spreading like wildfire. A petition was started at the developer's web site and more than 40,000 people have signed and canceled pre-orders in protest of the current news and the petition at present is growing.

    Many more gamers are expected to continue to cancel more pre-orders on Monday once the gaming world wakes up from the devastating news over the weekend.

    This could be damaging to the sales of Activision's successful Call of Duty series.

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