"I like to go for cinches. I like to shoot fish in a barrel. But I like to do it after the water has run out."
-- Warren Buffett
History seems to show that good investing doesn't necessarily mean picking out complex situations and basing your investment thesis on Nobel-level math. In fact, as the current financial crisis has shown us, too much complexity can often end in calamity.
In an effort to track down companies that may fall into that "fish in a barrel" category, I've turned to The Motley Fool's CAPS community. Using CAPS' stock screener, I looked for companies that have a price-to-earnings ratio below 15, a long-term debt-to-equity ratio below 50%, a return on equity above 10%, and a high rating from the CAPS community.
|
Company
|
CAPS Rating
(out of 5)
|
Price-to-Earnings Ratio
|
Return on Equity
|
Long-Term
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
|
|
MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR )
|
*****
|
13.7
|
12.2%
|
1%
|
|
China Mobile (NYSE: CHL )
|
****
|
12.3
|
24.0%
|
7%
|
|
Foster Wheeler (Nasdaq: FWLT )
|
*****
|
10.5
|
68.0%
|
31%
|
Source: CAPS.
These are just three of the results that the CAPS screener spit out, but you can run the same screen yourself to see the other companies that made the cut. While the three companies above aren't meant to be formal recommendations, they are a good starting point for further research. And on that note, let's take a closer look.
Wafers aplenty
Being in a cyclical industry is great fun when times are good and making money is as easy as rolling out of bed in the morning. However, as recent results from MEMC have shown, when economic times get tough, this picture can change drastically.
MEMC sells silicon wafers to the semiconductor and solar industries and counts industry majors like Samsung and Suntech Power (NYSE: STP ) among its larger customers. With the downturn putting pressure on both semiconductor and solar players, MEMC has seen both the sales volume and price of its wafers take a hit and squash its bottom line.
However, the company sports a rock-solid balance sheet, and recent signals from the likes of AMD (NYSE: AMD ) in the semiconductor world suggest that demand could start heating up.
More than a billion potential customers
Don't get me wrong, there are points to appreciate about U.S. telecommunications providers like Verizon (NYSE: VZ ) and even industry laggard Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S ) . However, the U.S. presents the challenge of a highly penetrated market and a handful of Goliath-sized competitors.
China Mobile, on the other hand, operates out of one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, with a population of more than a billion that has yet to really feel the crush of telecom competition. Despite economic challenges, the company added 36 million net new customers in the first quarter, bringing its total customer count to nearly half a billion.
Meanwhile, the decline in the stock's price since it peaked two years ago has made it a much more attractive value. And with a 3%-plus yield, the company is paying its investors to be patient.
Engineering profits
Global engineering and construction heavyweight Foster Wheeler is a favorite among CAPS members, with a perfect five-star rating and more than 1,700 outperform ratings against a mere 41 underperforms.
The whole global infrastructure thesis -- which relied on construction spending in countries like China and India -- was bumped out of the spotlight when U.S. financial turmoil turned into a worldwide recession. Progress may have to hit the brakes occasionally for speed bumps, but it's a hard engine to stop, and Foster Wheeler will be well-positioned to cash in on major projects happening all over the world.
CAPS All-Star pigwings6 gave the stock a thumbs-up earlier this month, saying:
Just bought in this in real life. The P/E is below 10 on a huge company thats been around for years. Plus, the balance sheet on this company looks quasi-perfect, with more than double the amount of cash needed to pay both long and short debt. Probably won't bounce back for a while, but in the long run I believe that this company will outperform along with the other beaten down sectors.
Getting down to business
Now the CAPS community wants you. Do you think these stocks make sense? Or is the community off base in its faith? Head over to CAPS and join the 140,000 members already sharing their thoughts on thousands of stocks.
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