A 1-in-100 Investor

Just as the 100 days in office set the tone for any new president, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we look at our best members who made some of their best stock selections early on and see which ones they think will be our next winners.

One of our highest rated CAPS members is DrtThrwingMonkey, who sports a top 99.95 member rating. A member since September 2006, DrtThrwingMonkey currently has 197 active picks on CAPS out of more than 780 stock picks made. Achieving 81% accuracy, DrtThrwingMonkey has also attracted 64 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Stock

CAPS Rating  out of 5)

Call

Price*

Current Score

Beazer Homes

*

Underperform

$4.39

(12.36)

Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: FAZ  )

*

Underperform

$5.37

(3.46)

First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR  )

**

Underperform

$139.13

1.08

Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX  )

***

Underperform

$56.19

4.31

Nintendo

*****

Outperform

$30.80

(4.19)

Origin Agritech (Nasdaq: SEED  )

*

Underperform

$11.63

9.82

Sequenom (Nasdaq: SQNM  )

****

Outperform

$4.47

(11.08)

Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP  )

****

Underperform

$17.43

1.20

Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL  )

**

Underperform

$50.25

(3.95)

Zion Bancorp

*

Underperform

$13.56

1.87

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. *Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.

Let's look at what other CAPS members are saying about a few of these stocks and whether they agree with this leading player's assessment.

Degree of risk
Despite the scandal involving possible data tampering that might wreck the outcome of Sequenom's prenatal Down syndrome test, the biotech has remained something of an investor favorite on the hope of positive clinical trial results. It also has other irons in the fire, but the SEQureDx test is the one that can make or break the company.

For example, CAPS member wisesilverwolf notes that if the stars manage to align in its favor, Sequenom could be a big winner.

Sounds like they have a great product, but have mucked up the testing phase. These problems with the FDA and FBI have shattered the stock price. 

Bad news for them in the short term, but good news for you in the long term. IF the problems get solved and new trials can prove that the product works as they claim.... then the stock will recover back to $25 and then to the moon. Maybe.

Things couldn't get much worse for them could they? Low downside risk and huge upside potential... worth a gamble.

According to one company, though, that glimmer of hope will be extinguished. Xenomics sued Sequenom in October, with the tiny company saying it was fraudulently misled into signing a licensing agreement with the biotech. Then last week it said its own internal investigation showed that Sequenom "willfully manipulated" the data regarding the SEQureDx test. That all sounds very damaging, and it's possible that the FBI and SEC investigations into what transpired will confirm that finding, but shouldn't Xenomics have conducted an investigation first before suing Sequenom? It seems Xenomics has put the cart before the horse here.

Yet in its current busted state, there may be a larger hope that Sequenom remains a takeover target. Its MASSArray technology remains otherwise viable, although spending cutbacks among its customers led to falling revenues in the most recent quarter. For an investor with a high-risk, speculative quadrant in his portfolio, Sequenom is worth watching, both for the potential for the SEQureDx test to prove viable and for the chance that a larger rival might want to take a chance on the rest of its pipeline and technology.

More than 91% of CAPS members rating the biotech believe it will outperform the market, and a slightly higher percentage of All-Stars have a similar inclination. Head over to Sequenom's CAPS page, and let us know whether you think it will be able to inoculate itself from further damage.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts, and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?

First Solar and Suntech Power Holdings are Motley Fool Rule Breakers picks. Netflix and Nintendo are Motley Fool Stock Advisor selections. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey has no financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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