Sirius XM's Next Stop?

• Report this Comment On February 19, 2010, at 4:33 PM, southernbeachguy wrote:

  Rick, I tend to complain when articles are slanted left or right unfairly. This article was very fair and accurate. Thanks for writing an informative article. By the way, I have rode in my car 2 hours today. Sirus is the only service that allows me to listen to the same station all day. Terrestrial radio is too limited in distance you drive and content.

• Report this Comment On February 19, 2010, at 5:30 PM, WoodyDog1400 wrote:

  SIRI will be at $3 by EOY. You know that...

• Report this Comment On February 19, 2010, at 5:30 PM, ItAintCool wrote:

  $1.50 by Mid May. $3.00 before the end of the year.

  SIRIDoom, where are you? Please spread a little sunshine onto these forums again.

• Report this Comment On February 19, 2010, at 5:44 PM, JWILLI44 wrote:

  I have to disagree with your point that people spend more time at home watching tv, than time available to listen to SIRIUS XM. You have to not only take the time in car...which can be a few hours a day. Many can listen to at work with a portable, iphone, ipod or blackberry. Then add to that the time people SHOULD spend excercising or doing chores around the house and SIRIUS XM becomes a great value.

• Report this Comment On February 19, 2010, at 7:09 PM, lution wrote:

  Isn't Sirius music on a Dish/Direct TV? I doubt Sirius is getting much for making their music available to dish customers but every little bit helps.

• Report this Comment On February 19, 2010, at 7:31 PM, geoslv wrote:

  Many people perceive that there is manipulation of this stock. The idea is that Karmazin and Goldman Sachs have decided to let it get above $1 just in time for March 15. Then they may keep it low til June until they can institute the poison pill to prevent a buyout. I suppose after that there is no reason to hold it down. My guess.

• Report this Comment On February 19, 2010, at 8:12 PM, wordcarr wrote:

  It is what it is. follow the below link if you feel like you want to jump in put your cash with the SIRI cheerleaders on this blog. Its reporting integrity that counts not how many hits the blog gets for online advertising. Don't get me wrong Rick, I enjoy reading your blogs. But again, it is what it is.

  siri is doom

  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sirius-xm-radio-is-seriousl...

• Report this Comment On February 19, 2010, at 8:41 PM, gasboy48 wrote:

  Rick...best and most insightful article you've done about Sirius so far. There are the naysayers who have profited from shorting this stock and writing the articles about how this service can't compete, but, Sirius is still here. Despite the cry babies at the NAB stalling of the merger to try and derail this company, despite the various lobbyists attempts at destruction, despite the hoards of analysts condemning this stock, Sirius has survived and grown. This fact cannot be denied. So, there must be something of value there. I totally agree that Sirius has a lot of potential to expand and increase revenue. The best deal for subscribers now, in my opinion, is with a portable player that can be used at home, in the car, at the gym, etc. You can get hours a day from the service that way and really appreciate all that it has to offer at a great value. Internet streaming with these portable players is possible, making it useful where you can't get an indoor satellite signal. I also like the idea of using satellite/internet reception for video streaming as another way to increase revenue. We can just hope that Sirius shares this vision. Fifteen bucks a month can't buy you anything near the entertainment value that you get from this service. I believe that it will take a little time for the shorts to figure out that this isn't easy money for them any more, and the market to see that the volatility in this stock is decreasing. When this happens, the stock will take off.

• Report this Comment On February 19, 2010, at 9:52 PM, SIRIDoom wrote:

  So you want to hear from me? Here is some light.

  I predicted a run up before the split. Made money on it and hope you did also.

  I see SIRI has some Bonds ready for call. Could refinance at a lower rate. Maybe they are looking for a better rating and reporting in reasonable time.

  SIRI is still working Mel’s original plan to make 5.00 shares and reduce the stock issue. He could hold out until the Malone stock is issued.

  Mel knows very well how to make all his evil "look good". SIRI must look like it tried everything before Mel splits. But, it will rev-split.

  This is all the same basic plan that Cox used to build a company on the backs of the "Unsophisticated" investor. SIRI has a future but the scam is not completed yet.

  Play the hi and low. Don't hold over 98 cents. SIRI will come back down the next Monday after the Quarterly report. The Goldman paid "Anal Lists" including Amobibobboly are going to attack SIRI with a slam.

  Goldman Sachs Controls the world. Just ask the people living in Grease how they like living under Goldman Sachs New World Order Cooked Accounting.

  SIRI is a Cash Cow for the Elite to suck all your pennies from your Butt. A history of back ended deals that make Billions for the few. And the little people pay.

  Be carful trading SIRI. Don't get burned again.

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 12:44 AM, ItAintCool wrote:

  Welcome back SIRIDoom!

  SIRIDoom said "I predicted a run up before the split. Made money on it and hope you did also."

  You predicted a run up? You have been silent on this forum for months, ever since 3Q positive earnings, increased subscribers and announcing 100 mil in free cash flow. And before that you said we were all suckers to be involved with this stock. You prophesied a forced reverse split, you predicted the stock would crash and burn (especially on a reverse split). Never I have I seen you mention a "run up" to anything. As I remember all you've been telling us to get the hell out of this stock, because of Mel "Karma-Crook" as you so lovingly called him. Now you claim to have benefited from it's rapid rise (at what point did you get in may I ask)? Of course, I don't read every post so please post the link to it so we can bask in your psychic awesomeness.

  I will agree with you on one thing GS has been pulling the strings, but they've been trying to bring SIRI down on naked short calls since they are the primary holder of SIRI bonds and trying to get the market to flip against the stock rally and into the bond holdings (along with their stooge Jim Cramer).

  SIRIDoom Said: Mel knows very well how to make all his evil "look good". SIRI must look like it tried everything before Mel splits. But, it will rev-split.

  Well, what if the report next week beats Wall Street expectations and drives the stock up even more, and let's say avoids the delisting, what then SD? What will you say then? A rev-split may not happen, but it is also possible and entirely sensible for Mel to do a reverse split if he wants to. With the stock out of "jeopardy" a reverse split (let's say 5 to 1) allows SIRI to become more appealing to mutual funds, which in turn sells more shares, which in turn drives up the stock. It won't be a sign of desperation. It's just a zero-sum gain for SIRI if he does reverse split. Mel & Malone don't secretly benefit any more than we do.

  But lets say you're right and the stock drops under $1.00 in the next 7 days, putting it back in the potential delisting realm. Mel has already got another extension of the NASDAQ ruling giving him till virtually March 2011 to get the stock back up. In the meantime, unless things start turning for the worse, the company really has no place to go but up. Maybe it won't be the skyrocket of the last few weeks, but it certainly won't crash and burn anytime soon.

  SIRIDoom said: SIRI is a Cash Cow for the Elite to suck all your pennies from your Butt. A history of back ended deals that make Billions for the few. And the little people pay.

  Well I'm certainly no elite, but after having bought 50,000 shares @ .10 I will certainly concur it's a cash cow. And the product is pretty good, too. I've sold 6,000 at around .90, so right now I'm playing with the house's money. I'm in this for the long haul. And I think that you'll find many of the people are too. You want to bet against us. It's certainly you're right. But you've been the purveyor of Doom & Gloom on this stock (along with MF up until 3Q).

  Last question SIRIDoom: Are you and Worldcarr related? (or one and the same?)

  SIRID

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 1:07 AM, ItAintCool wrote:

  Welcome back SIRIDoom!

  SIRIDoom said "I predicted a run up before the split. Made money on it and hope you did also."

  You predicted a run up? You have been silent on this forum for months, ever since 3Q positive earnings, increased subscribers and SIRI announcing 100 mil in free cash flow. And before that you said we were all suckers to be involved with this stock. You prophesied a forced reverse split, you predicted the stock would crash and burn (especially on a reverse split). Never I have I seen you mention a "run up" to anything. As I remember all you've been telling us to get the hell out of this stock, because of Mel "Karma-Crook" as you so lovingly called him. Now you claim to have benefited from it's rapid rise (at what point did you get in may I ask)? Of course, I don't read every post, so please post the link to it so we can bask in your psychic awesomeness.

  I will agree with you on one thing GS has been pulling the strings, but they've been trying to bring SIRI down on naked short calls since they are the primary holder of SIRI bonds and trying to get the market to flip against the stock rally and jump into the bond holdings (along with their stooge Jim Cramer).

  SIRIDoom Said: Mel knows very well how to make all his evil "look good". SIRI must look like it tried everything before Mel splits. But, it will rev-split.

  Well, what if the report next week beats Wall Street expectations and drives the stock up even more, and let's say avoids the delisting, what then SD? What will you say then? A rev-split may not happen, but it is also possible and entirely sensible for Mel to do a reverse split if he wants to. With the stock out of "jeopardy" a reverse split (let's say 5 to 1) allows SIRI to become more appealing to mutual funds, which in turn sells more shares, which in turn drives up the stock. It won't be a sign of desperation. It's just a zero-sum gain for SIRI if he does reverse split. Mel & Malone don't secretly benefit any more than we do.

  But lets say you're right and the stock drops under $1.00 in the next 7 days, putting it back in the potential delisting realm. Mel has already got another extension of the NASDAQ ruling giving him till virtually March 2011 to get the stock back up. In the meantime, unless things start turning for the worse, the company really has no place to go but up. Maybe it won't be the skyrocket of the last few weeks, but it certainly won't crash and burn anytime soon.

  SIRIDoom said: SIRI is a Cash Cow for the Elite to suck all your pennies from your Butt. A history of back ended deals that make Billions for the few. And the little people pay.

  Well I'm certainly no elite, but after having bought 50,000 shares @ .10 I will certainly concur it's a cash cow. And the product is pretty good, too. I've sold 6,000 at around .90, so right now I'm playing with the house's money. I'm in this for the long haul. And I think that you'll find many of the people are too. You want to bet against us, it's certainly you're right. But you've been the purveyor of Doom & Gloom on this stock (along with MF up until 3Q). If you want to stuff your pennies in your butt for somebody else to suck out, be my guest.

  SIRIDoom wrote: Goldman Sachs Controls the world. Just ask the people living in Grease how they like living under Goldman Sachs New World Order Cooked Accounting.

  And we all know that "Grease" is the word. It's the word that you heard. It's got move. It's got meaning. Perhaps Goldman Sachs knows that, too.

  Last question SIRIDoom: Are you and Worldcarr related? (or one and the same?) You write things in a somewhat similar way.

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 1:29 AM, ItAintCool wrote:

  Sorry for the double post.

  Worldcarr. That piece by Chuck Jaffe is crappier piece of writing than any bash-job The Street has done. Just because it's on the net, doesn't mean it's true. The man doesn't have any due diligence in his article. His reader talkbacks (almost all of them against him) have cut through the holes in his arguments like Swiss cheese. And he backpedals by saying he might be right or wrong. You want to believe him, then as I've told you back when SIRI was back in the .70 cent range, short-sell the stock. If you think the stock is doomed back then, why didn't you short-sell it? Why don't you short sell it now? You can shout SIRI is Doom from the rooftops, but if you can't put your money where your mouth is, your words are meaningless.

  In the meantime, many here have put our money where our mouth is. Many of us are long on SIRI and damn happy about it right now.

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 3:06 AM, geoslv wrote:

  SIRIDoom has some good points.

  Don't know if he's right about the split now.

  Is "Liberty Staff" at the seekingalpa board really Mel Karmazin?

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 8:34 AM, cajun021 wrote:

  One of the more balanced articles posted about this stock in ages. KUDOS to you.

  I have looked, searched and researched for information on how many OTR(Over The Road) truck drivers are out there and how many of them have Sirius. The sources I've found are outdated. Plus the fact theres no real numbers on OTR subscription or at least I havent found them.

  My question is there anybody out there that might know more about this? The reason I'm wondering is whats the base percentage of the subscribers that are OTR? More or less then 50% My bet is the number is higher then most people think and if that is the case, Sirius radio will be around for a VERY long time just for the fact these people are the ones moveing america.

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 8:56 AM, wordcarr wrote:

  Well written Sirdoom--Investing 101 dictates that one should invest in companies that one has some knowledge of, you seem to have a great prospective of this company and made the most of your knowledge.The key to success as Rick stated, is subscribers.Sat broadcasts have been around for some time now.Most everyone is aware of sat broadcasts by now.There is not enought demand at current pricing for the service to make a profit.That's not to say that sat broadcasts or of no value,but as a replacement of radio,or to compete with new audio services, it just isn't going to happen.

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 11:42 AM, wmorgan4mecom wrote:

  I have lost more in terms of paid on line music due to computer problems than a yearly subscription to SIRI. At any rate its nice to get in the truck have the radio set and jump from the 50's to the 90's as you please. I like most everyone have at least 2 or 3 mp3 or smart phones that download music. Its costly and time consuming . Home charger, truck charger, new batteries . Just give me SIRI. Whats up with buying tunes and not able to download to your device until?

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 1:18 PM, Angelmos wrote:

  "We can't get ahead of ourselves. Sirius XM's stock broke through the $1 ceiling with no material news this week."

  Are you sirius?

  SIRIUS XM is feeling like "Pretty Woman", Jula Roberts when she said:

  "In case I forget to tell you later, I had a really good time tonight."

  Nothing wrong with falling in love with SIRIUS XM stock looking at an improved automobile market, the prospect of refinancing the debt, and more leverage in contract talks with Stern.

  The theory about Goldman Sachs and the stock analysts sounds like Edward Lewis (Richard Gere) telling pretty woman:

  "You and I are such similar creatures Vivian. We both s*rew people for money."

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 3:37 PM, PSU69 wrote:

  My Porsche factory stereo was crap. I added SIRI SAT, and a bunch of top line other fun stuff. I love having the programming of SIRI in the car. Drove 20,000 in the first year, so that is a few hours. I believe some folks gave up on SIRI due to the OEM auto death spiral combined with a lot of games from talking heads like Cramer and his long list of manipulators. I love both the product and the business model. I predict $3 by EOY. Cars are being sold now at a good clip and the subscribers are going to keep piling on providing the metrics for good EBITDA.

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 4:01 PM, loosestreet wrote:

  OKAY WORDCARR. LETS HAVE SOME STATS TO

  BACKUP YOUR VIEW.

  DO YOU OWN ANY SIRI STOCK ????

  OR IS THIS JUST LIP SERVICE ?????

  LOTS OF ARMCHAIR QB,NO TROWING ARMS.

  I HAVE 32000 SHARES TO BACKUP WHAT I BELIEVE AND YOU ?????

  On February 19, 2010, at 8:12 PM, wordcarr wrote: It is what it is. follow the below link if you feel like you want to jump in put your cash with the SIRI cheerleaders on this blog. Its reporting integrity that counts not how many hits the blog gets for online advertising. Don't get me wrong Rick, I enjoy reading your blogs. But again, it is what it is.

  siri is doom

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 4:16 PM, dncoz1000 wrote:

  "Sirius XM could have waited until well into March to discuss its fourth-quarter results, but chose to do so Thursday morning -- just six trading days into its dollar-day streak."

  I wouldn't read much into this as a reason for SXM to announce the CC on Thursday, 2/25. The only way they could push the filing of their 10K beyond 3/1/ 10 would be in a filing of a NT 10K, Late Filing Notice, and that would surely end any momentum rally with concerns from investors. They only have 60 days from the EOY to file their 10K as a Large Accelerated Filer, which is March 1st this year.

  I think they are trying to maximize the impact of the Liberty CC at Noon the same day, to reinforce their own results reported at 8 AM. Their "delisting letter" issue certainly adds to the drama, but the "Street" is forecasting a loss of (-.02 / share) and a beat of that will help sustain these levels making the "bid price" issue a thing of the past by the 3rd of March's Close imo.

  With Q3 having significantly fewer positive subs than the already released 257K for Q4, and less revenue realized from Royalty Fees, yet virtually posting Q3 break even.... I think Patient investors will continue to be rewarded with the release of these numbers on Thursday.....

  I believe that forward looking analysis of Q1 results and EBITDA projections for 2010 of anything greater than Mel's 20% growth on top of 400M from 2009, will be what smart money will be looking for. Revenue of great than 700M per quarter and better Auto Numbers will be the substance that keeps the stock moving. Also a nice little beat on the pre announce $100M in FCF for the full year of 2009 would be some icing on the cake.

  There is enough to report now that will keep investors, Institutions in particular that have a growth strategy, interested in keeping this momentum tapping the $1.50 with the $.75 cents soon to be part of this company's recovery footnote.

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 5:46 PM, gettingit wrote:

  SiriDOOM, you have been negative on this stock since it was at 12 cents a year ago and now you write your posts under Pell. With respect-you have been wrong so admit it and move on. A while back Brandon sited 10 reasons why SIRI will continue to move forward yet he forgot one very important fact...in 1983 9,000,000 cars were sold in the US which is about the same number sold in 2009. Today there are 70 million more people, so you will see in 2010 and 2011 the number of cars sold will be closer to 12 million. Last year was the worst year in the history of our country including the Great Depression, on a relative basis. So people will have more money, more cars will be sold, there is no more naked short selling taking place on the stock and the list goes on. Next week's report will knock everyone back-why? Because they will report forward looking guidance that will show more strength to come-with institutional investors coming into the stock-look out-this will hit $4 by year's end-nothing will stop it-you watch and remeber these comments.

  Rick, you too have been more negative than Jim Cramer for the last 12 months and you could not pass the opportunity to throw out the comment about it possibly going to 50 or 75 cents. Not many people could keep there jobs by being wrong so very consistently as you have been. I re-read 12 different articles from you stating that SIRI will never make it. How could you write that with such conviction yet be so wrong. Readers of YahooFinance want real opinions that can give them insight not incorrect commentary based on unwarranted bias. C'mon Rick-get with it.

• Report this Comment On February 20, 2010, at 11:37 PM, FM5 wrote:

  ok here it is , my own pole, The Real Thing , i work for a car dealer ship and have been a tech for a Long time, i dont won't to say how long, or il feel old.

  what i can tell all of you Sirius holders is one good thing you will like. when satellite radio first came out every car i pull in to work on ,which would be 8 to 10 cars a day, would have to be a high end car with high end radio to have satellite, a year ago it was 1 to 10 cars i pulled in to work on had it in the cars, or was tune in to sat radio, one year latter it's in every car low end or high end (all ) stock in all cars, and for every car i pull in now sat radio is on 6 to 7 out of 10

  and tuned into it

  and that now when times are a littel tight

• Report this Comment On February 21, 2010, at 1:06 AM, mikecart1 wrote:

  If SIRI reports good earnings which is doubtful, the stock will rise pretty high. Otherwise, expect SIRI to be delisted before 2011.

• Report this Comment On February 21, 2010, at 1:54 PM, Cqqldude wrote:

  Delisted in in '11.......LOL, OK, but I doubt it. Like FM5 above, I'd like to add a bit of 'practical' info to all this statistical info that's got everyone in a tizzy. I do my own investing, and I am a truck driver for FedEx, as well. I drive 640 miles a night, 5 nights a week. I see, and talk to a lot of professional drivers every day. Two things that they almost ALL have these days, XM/Sirius and GPS. Think it's a fad? Not in this business, it's become a necessity in their vehicles. Once tried, they never go back to AM/FM. And, there are roughly 5-6 million drivers, in a down economy, subscribing. That is a big percentage of the total subscribers to this service. As the economy grows, the trucking industry will get back to 'normal' operating strengths, and, I submit, the subscription rates will climb as well. That is not taking into account that the "new" car owners that are trying the service for the first time and becoming "lifers" of the service. I own XM as an investment. I am long on XM. As Lynch and Buffet both have said, invest into what you know....I know XM!!!

• Report this Comment On February 21, 2010, at 4:50 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

  Cqqldude, sorry but 5-6 million FedEx drivers is nothing. Perhaps you are unaware that there are over 300 million people living in the US which means there are at least 200 million other drivers. 5/200 = 2.5%.

  That is some great market share SIRI has going for it. And people wonder why they have never profitted a single quarter in years? (disregard last quarter as it was based on derivative accounting - something SIRI learned from the banker boys).

  :D

• Report this Comment On February 21, 2010, at 8:59 PM, Cqqldude wrote:

  Yeah, I know the population of the US......if you read correctly, the 5-6 mil is in reference to the total subscription of XM, not of the total driving population of the US........that percentage is far above your 2.5.

• Report this Comment On February 21, 2010, at 10:24 PM, fundamentalsrock wrote:

  This is certainly an interesting company! I do think all of the naysayers out there are missing a fundamental sequence of analysis: (1) Sirius/XM is in virtually every new car sold today, (2) subscriber retention rates are excellent (much better than cable/sat TV, if only because drivers really have no choice), and (3) the cost of adding a new subscriber is very limited (hardware plus auto incentives, but zero marginal cost in ongoing operation). So what does that add up to? A company whose operating margins, free cash, and ultimately enterprise value will only go up. In the auto market, there is really zero competition - HD/terresterial radio is a joke, and even if it were okay, very few people are going to non-renew and leave their expensive car radio only half operational for want of $150 a year!

  Of course, with the incredible debt Sirius has, plus its horrible dilution, it will remain a down and out stock for a while, but it is really hard to see, long term, how this company can lose.

  One other point where I disagree with the OP - I think Sirius/XM is purely an auto play, and its device and internet services are just a joke (or, at best, a small add on business for existing auto subscribers who might pay a little more to get Siruis on their Blackberry or iPhone). Once you leave the car, there are so many choices, and most of them free, that Sirius really has no chance at a standalone business. I am glad they have really stopped pushing retail sales of their radios, and now seem much more focused on auto.

• Report this Comment On February 22, 2010, at 2:26 AM, 1969longhair wrote:

  One thing I'd like to bring up is the use of XM weather in the aviation industry. I have XM weather and raido in 4 of my 6 planes in my flight club. There are more car drivers out there than pilots, but I thought it might be good to have this info as another reason to consider SIRI.

• Report this Comment On February 22, 2010, at 4:17 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

  That's great 1969longhair, if avoiding terrorism, crazy passengers, and pilots falling asleeep wasn't enough, let's let pilots listen to Howard Stern 5 days a week. We really have our priorities lined up correctly I see!

• Report this Comment On February 23, 2010, at 4:30 PM, Br0oklyn wrote:

  If there's one thing about SIRI, you know you gotta Love it !

• Report this Comment On February 24, 2010, at 11:37 AM, langco1 wrote:

  its bankruptcy court for sirius...

• Report this Comment On February 24, 2010, at 3:21 PM, langco1 wrote:

  next step for sirius living off of financial life support is bankruptcy court and soon!!

• Report this Comment On February 26, 2010, at 12:30 PM, rbbrfish wrote:

  If there's any value in experience, I just moved from the West Coast to a large-ish city in the Midwest and won't even consider terrestrial radio here. No choice and lousy content. Have Sirius in one car and am looking at it for my office. To have something that even vaguely resembles choice, I cannot relinquish Sirius.

• Report this Comment On February 26, 2010, at 12:32 PM, Laramie09 wrote:

  I'm a multiyear subscriber to XM Radio but increasingly, hardly ever listen to it. I much prefer my own mp3 selections. I won't be re-subscribing. I think others will make similar decisions

• Report this Comment On February 26, 2010, at 6:25 PM, langco1 wrote:

  delisting then bankruptcy is almost game over..

• Report this Comment On February 26, 2010, at 7:26 PM, xmlikerinvest wrote:

  sirius should have been delisted a year ago and has been given special treatment.sirius is still surving off of a large investors cash infushions and will be in bankruptcy as soon as he runs out of money or patientce...

  http://gettopstocks.blogspot.com

• Report this Comment On February 28, 2010, at 3:16 AM, lhmeyer wrote:

  i rented a car for a month that had sirius in it...did not think i would use it, but once i did, i never turned it off when i drove. i listened mainly fox news that allowed me to skip fox on tv when i got home to watch other things of interest that i would not watch before ..it was great. as people use it, they will like it and they sirius) will only grower...ford is now selling more cars with sirius installed and paid for subscription for 6 mos to 1 yr...

  most of those buyers will renew the service as it offers so much more than radio...this stock can only go up more from here...$4 by year end...no way, but in 3yrs? yes it can....now, who would not like a stock to go from $1.00 to $4 or even $2.00 in 3yrs?? that would be a great return...need to think long term on this stock...not short...and the stock trend is on the upswing and should continue that way as they add customers.

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