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How the Cable Guys Are Killing Themselves

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The cable guys, along with some friends, are spending $30 million to accelerate their own demise. Serious movie buffs couldn't be happier.

Cable TV providers including Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC  ) and Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA  ) are teaming up with leading movie studios such as News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS  ) 20th Century Fox and Lionsgate (NYSE: LGF  ) to promote the concept of watching movies on demand through your cable box.

A combination of print, online, and TV ads show how happy consumers can get their favorite movies delivered right at home anytime they like, and often on the same day as the retail DVD release. All it takes is a couple of clicks on your remote control.

I love on-demand content. With this model, you can get your entertainment fill without schlepping down to the video store, without waiting for the next Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX  ) delivery, and without even bothering to record stuff on your TiVo (Nasdaq: TIVO  ) . Time slots and schedules are so last millennium. From that perspective, the cable industry is doing its customers a favor by promoting the availability of video on demand, and it does make sense to drive subscribers to pay cold, hard cash for on-demand movies rather than turning elsewhere.

But the quicker the average American gets used to the convenience of on-demand video, the swifter the demise of traditional cable packages. I can't help but assume that an industry that's pushing for more use of on-demand features will also beef up the library of available content. If you build it, they will come, and I for one wouldn't hesitate a heartbeat to drop a few layers of programming packages if I could just get the same content through the on-demand menu system.

And that's just the beginning of the end. The next TV set you buy might be able to stream videos from Netflix, Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN  ) , YouTube, Hulu, and a gazillion other online sources -- and a modern Blu-ray box certainly will. The interface will feel familiar to cable customers already steeped in on-demand content, and in my mind, it's only a question of time before the cable box becomes nothing more than a nice Internet connection for your TV.

That's the road the cable industry is walking down, and it's paved with good intentions of quality customer service and short-term profits. It's also tantamount to a suicide note. The next generation of entertainment providers will shake out from a bunch of content-organizing powerhouses like Amazon, TiVo, and Netflix.

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Fool contributor Anders Bylund owns shares in Netflix, but he holds no other position in any of the companies discussed here. Amazon.com and Netflix are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days. You can check out Anders' holdings and a concise bio if you like, and The Motley Fool is investors writing for investors.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 17, 2010, at 4:26 PM, BioBat wrote:

    On Demand content has actually gotten worse over the past couple of years. Now the cable companies have come up with the bright idea of charging customers for old cable rerun movies that used to be free on demand or during broadcast - even though consumers already digital on demand accesss on their monthly cable bills and for the content shown on the networks they subscribe to.

    Sure, grabbing 2.99 for a movie rather than showing it for free makes sense - provided you don't lose your customer in the process and that's something I think the cable companies are all underestimating. With free Hulu and an 8.99 subscription to Netflix, all anyone needs anymore is a good internet connection to get the content when they want it. That sure beats $80-90 for cable plus additional demand rental gouging.

  • Report this Comment On March 17, 2010, at 5:11 PM, Burley wrote:

    "It's also tantamount to a suicide note."

    I'm sorry, but I don't see it that way. You love on demand content, I love on demand content, pretty much everyone loves it, and IMO the cable companies couldn't be happier.

    Serving up programming on demand is MUCH more efficient that running linear programming, with start times, channel numbers, etc. I believe Brian Roberts, CEO of Comcast, saw this very early, and made a conscious decision to provide a large portion of CMCSA's on demand content free of charge, basically conditioning his customers to look for content in an on demand format.

    You think it is suicide, but cable still has the pipe that the content uses to get to the house. If you are a cable customer and choose to stream video from Netflix or Amazon, or whoever, it still has to have a way to get from there to your house, so I fail to see how cable is committing suicide.

    The content from Netflix, et al will more than likely be identical to the content the cable companies can provide via their own distribution network (the studios would like to sell the content rights to as many outlets as possible, correct?) so will they lose on that front? Maybe some, but I suspect not much.

    I don't think streaming a la carte video will hurt cable that much either. Right now it is expensive to do linear channel a la carte because each customer would need to have his/her own channel lineup and the back office costs and methods make it prohibitive.

    However, if ALL programming was on demand, a la carte is simple, and would likely make the cable companies more profitable.

    How much video content does the average family watch today? 40 hours a week (I really don't know, I am taking a SWAG rather than looking it up)? For the sake of argument, let's assume that is the case. What would be a good price point for an hour of "standard" fare video? (movies would continue to be charged separately) How about if we mimic the Apple store pricing for ITunes at $0.99 a song, and charge about a dollar for an hour of video.

    40 hours of viewing a week is 160 hours a month, or roughly $160 a month for you to watch your videos. Add to that the cost of movies (maybe subtract the dollar a hour for standard video when you are watching movies), add the price of internet, and you can easily see that at $190 to $200 a month per average customer, streaming a la carte would be a boon to cable companies.

    Foolishly,

    Burle

  • Report this Comment On March 17, 2010, at 6:13 PM, rlhoman wrote:

    Or one could say that they are recognizing the inevitable and trying to reinvent themselves before they lose all of their business. Certainly this is much better than burying their heads in the sand and pretending everything is fine.

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