Blockbuster 1, Netflix 0

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 1:57 PM, CrankyTexan wrote:

  Blockbuster 1, Netflix 0?

  More like Blockbuster 1, Netflix 100.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 2:04 PM, CymLN wrote:

  Blockbuster may have a temporary win, but it is not really a "have-it-now" game anymore. The number and volume of titles available at Netflix mean that there is no shortage of titles to occupy my time until The Blind Side comes out. It that sense it is "new" to me whenever it is released on Netflix. The value point in the subscription based model is not speed, but customization. Many new releases may not even fit my movie profile (for language, sexuality, violence) and in that sense are not even important. More important is that I can choose "current" movies, as well as "current" TV shows and still divert into my favorites or the classics of TV and movie. RedBox, being all about what's "hot" (read fad) may be hurt more deeply. Lastly, Blockbuster, which came late to the dance and is working brick-and-mortar to online, has less execution experience than Netflix which works from the Web outwards.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 2:05 PM, CymLN wrote:

  Blockbuster may have a temporary win, but it is not really a "have-it-now" game anymore. The number and volume of titles available at Netflix mean that there is no shortage of titles to occupy my time until The Blind Side comes out. It that sense it is "new" to me whenever it is released on Netflix. The value point in the subscription based model is not speed, but customization. Many new releases may not even fit my movie profile (for language, sexuality, violence) and in that sense are not even important. More important is that I can choose "current" movies, as well as "current" TV shows and still divert into my favorites or the classics of TV and movie. RedBox, being all about what's "hot" (read fad) may be hurt more deeply. Lastly, Blockbuster, which came late to the dance and is working brick-and-mortar to online, has less execution experience than Netflix which works from the Web outwards.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 2:22 PM, deepestvalue wrote:

  Warren Buffett spoke about how to evaluate who ( among the crowds) will be the winner in the years to come.

  When Tiger Woods was not playing well ( not NOT playing at all) Buffett said something like: If I were to bet on a Golfer I would bet on Tiger.

  Also, when talking about basketball: If a 5 1/2 foot player and showed he could dribble very well, I would still bet on the 7 foot player, because of what will happen when the 5 1/2 foot player goes out there?

  BBI is the 8 foot player, the others are growing kids, who may get to 10 feet, OR MAY NOT...

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 2:28 PM, stan8331 wrote:

  BBI is a 33 cent stock for a reason. I wouldn't suggest betting the farm on those folks...

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 3:24 PM, peachsnapz wrote:

  I just picked up a copy at one of the Blockbuster Express Kiosks. So, I guess you can get it there. Bummer for Netflix and Redbox.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 4:38 PM, BioBat wrote:

  The problem is you actually have to find an operational blockbuster store or kiosk in order to get it. Those aren't nearly as easy to come by as the red envelope in the mailbox or the redbox.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 4:52 PM, Turfscape wrote:

  My wife and I used Redbox for the first time this month...and I'll tell you very honestly, I wouldn't even know what the newest release is or was. I couldn't care less. See, I have young kids, which means that we can't get out to see movies like we used to. It wouldn't bother me one bit if Blockbuster had a film weeks before Redbox or Netflix. I'm just happy to get a movie and a few hours to watch it.

  I'd say that I'm the exception...but there's an entire section of the population in my situation. And they all look to rent movies on those nights when the kids actually fall asleep at 7:00. And not 1% of them are gonna care if that movie came out on DVD that weekend, or 5 weeks ago.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 4:57 PM, Neoflash wrote:

  Over the past few weeks, Rick Aristotle Munarriz of The Motley Fool has been very vocal about his view of the recent deal between Netflix and some major Holywood studios in which Netflix agreed to a 28-day moratorium in exchange for more title copies at lower price points. He has made it clear, over and over and over again that he thinks it's a bad move and that it will hurt Netflix's business. Ok Rick, we get it, we heard you the first time, and the second, you don't like the deal. Now can we move on to other interesting news.

  Don't get me wrong, I appreciate Rick's input and he does bring forth some interesting arguments. But I'm not entirely convinced that this deal between Netflix and the movie studios will be a real drag on subscriptions. I mean, I sure didn't go back to Blockbuster because of it and don't plan to. I do believe that most people who sign up with Netflix don't care all that much about being able to watch a movie as soon as it is available. Subscribers know that the Netflix system, with it's movie queue, means that they might not receive a particular movie first and that they may have to wait for it. Adding 28 days won't change much. So Rick, do us a favor, talk about something else for awhile until you get some data or something a bit more concrete to show us that Netflix made a horrible move. Because frankly it's starting to look like you have a bone to pick with Netflix more than financial journalism.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 5:05 PM, SUPERMANSTOCKS wrote:

  I am thinking of picking up 100 shares at these prices. Reminds me of Ford in a lot of ways.I mean it would cost me 40.00 for 100. I honestly don't think I can lose here

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 5:06 PM, SUPERMANSTOCKS wrote:

  100 BBI coming up for me! Forgot to say who I'd be buying

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 5:07 PM, shredswithpiks wrote:

  The rental customer base has already waited months and months for the movie to hit home-video, what makes blockbuster think an extra 28 days is the deal breaker? I mean, BBI is trying to get back customers who already use netflix or redbox, or tip potentials sitting on the fence. Would a 4week timeline on a subset of movies really make a difference when your queue is probably backlogged with 100 movies anyway?

  I'd be surprised to see this translate to profitability. All the "have-it-now" people already saw the movie in a theater anyway.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 5:08 PM, JPDemers wrote:

  Could it possibly be, just maybe, that NFLX management gave this some thought? You know, the guys who've managed the company to where it is now, and left BBI as roadkill on the way? The guys who know how often a movie rents in the first 4 weeks, and how often it rents in the months and years after that? The guys who know basic math? Yeah, those guys!

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 5:34 PM, TMFBreakerRick wrote:

  Neoflash, fair enough, but today's Blockbuster-Time Warner announcement IS new news. And if you read the release, it wouldn't surprise me if Blockbuster begins flaunting its access as part of its marketing campaign.

  And just in case the disclaimer at the bottom isn't clear -- I am a Netflix shareholder and subscriber. I wish this would have been a good move by Netflix and stand to benefit if I'm wrong. I just don't see how this policy ends well, especially now when there is a clear tiering strategy among renters.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 6:22 PM, BrianBristow wrote:

  Neoflash, I was thinking the same thing. What is this guy's problem? I imagine Rick sitting at home, alone in a crummy apartment watching three movies a night and then realizing late at night, "OMG! I need to get an article out by tomorrow morning... what is going on in the financial world right now? Oh, I've got it! Those losers down at Netflix still haven't sent me my copy of The Spy Next Door. That'll be a good topic."

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 6:50 PM, stan8331 wrote:

  I strongly suspect that this supposed stampede of Netflix subscribers who will be breathlessly rushing to Blockbuster to pay 5 bucks to see a movie that's already been in theaters for months and that they can see for free on their Netflix subscription by waiting one more month is a figment of some poor BBI investor's imagination.

  Blockbuster may survive as a company, but there is absolutely nothing in their business model that presents any serious threat to Netflix.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 7:10 PM, BlazerMania wrote:

  I am a Netflix subscriber, and I have to admit that this 30 day lag on new releases bothers me not at all. 90% of my Netflix usage is through online streaming or TV series (i.e. the HBO or Showtime programs, Discovery ). I don't think I've actually had a movie in DVD form mailed to my address in over 3 months. The Motley Fool seems to really be making a lot of noise about what a bad deal this is for Netflix customers, but as a customer myself, I couldn't care less.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 8:05 PM, ecajoe wrote:

  Ok ladies and gentlemen, l just got home from my shift at Blockbuster. Yes, l can tell you first hand what happened today at work. l am happy to say we had many faces back in my store l have not seen in some time. Where have they been? Yep, the other guys. Why were they back? It's simple, we got what people want to see and they don't. Blind Side is a huge release and for any rental outlet not to have it is total crazyness. lf you don't think hot titles are important then you don't know the video rental business. New releases are the life blood and Redbox and Netflix just cut their wrist.

• Report this Comment On March 23, 2010, at 10:50 PM, downpour046 wrote:

  I don't mean to rain on anyone's parade, and believe me, I'm a big fan of NetFlix, and what it has become. I also agree with most when I say Netflix's business model is different.

  That being said, those who say that 30 days is not that big of a deal are absolutely -out of their minds-. Simply put, when a new movie comes out in the theaters, the first weeks are when movies are seen the most. That first month is absolutely critical, not to mention the first week. You're telling me that, if Blockbuster has the newest Twilight for release, and ONLY Blockbuster, that every 16 year old girl isn't going to be lined up around the block to buy at blockbuster at 12:00AM? You're absolutely wrong if you think otherwise. They won't be going to redbox, netflix, or anywhere else will they?

  For those that are more passive, and can wait for things to come out, then obviously there are solutions such as RedBox and Netflix.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 1:16 AM, cketten wrote:

  I've been in the video rental business for over 10 years. Almost half of a movie's yearly rents is in it's first 4 weeks of release. Fox and Universal are keeping a close eye on the Blockbuster/Warner 28 day exclusive window deal. They will soon follow suite when they see their success. Let's not forget about the retail. The majority of people want a movie the week it comes out. There will be an increase in foot traffic and after the Warner titles rent out some people will buy it. Why drive somewhere else to buy it when it's right there in front of them for sale? Look for Blockbuster's stock to go over a $1 a share within the next couple of month's.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 1:28 AM, LeeHIII wrote:

  Netflix users are patient. That's why we watch movies at home on Netflix instead of going to the theaters in the first place. Based on some of the comments I've read this may be a difficult concept to grasp for those who require instant gratification.

  Will the flick be less good in 28 days? I don't think so. Besides, I have thousands of movies I can pipe through the Roku while waiting for the latest release to show up in my mailbox. What's the hurry?

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 9:29 AM, verylargelarry wrote:

  I'd like to know more here please.

  Redbox and Netflix signed onto the one month delay in order to accommodate its source - first one, then another, movie studio - the producer of the commodity it rents. I would expect all the major studios to ask for similar concessions at some point, especially if this props up the DVD sales market.

  In return, Redbox and Netflix have touted the gain of lower acquisition costs of the commodity, and a peace accord with their source.

  Am I now to believe that Blockbuster, crushed first by Netflix for convenience and then by Redbox for price, is somehow exempt from the market forces that forced those firms to buckle under?

  Are all those closed stores' employees running around to Walmarts in order to stock Blockbuster shelves, as Redbox did?

  Something doesn't make sense here. I would not want to be spending $40 on Blockbuster just yet.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 12:43 PM, Hokie33 wrote:

  Ok, My question is what is stopping Netflix and Redbox from being livid about this deal and trying to back out or alter their deal with Time Warner. And why did Time Warner agree to do this with BBI and not NFLX and Redbox seems very odd. Is this Time Warner hoping throwing a bone to BBI and hoping they survive and provide more competition? Or did BBI agree to pay a very steep price for the DVD's for the right to rent them out without waiting? If that is the case maybe this is BBI last futile attempt at avoiding bankruptcy.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 12:43 PM, Hokie33 wrote:

  Ok, My question is what is stopping Netflix and Redbox from being livid about this deal and trying to back out or alter their deal with Time Warner. And why did Time Warner agree to do this with BBI and not NFLX and Redbox seems very odd. Is this Time Warner hoping throwing a bone to BBI and hoping they survive and provide more competition? Or did BBI agree to pay a very steep price for the DVD's for the right to rent them out without waiting? If that is the case maybe this is BBI last futile attempt at avoiding bankruptcy.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 1:34 PM, wyrdmage wrote:

  We are going to try Netflix (because of convenience & cost), even though we've always rented from Blockbuster. It doesn't matter to us how long before a DVD is available for rental. For any movie that matters enough to us, we splurge and change our routine for the theater (such as we did for Blind Side).

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 2:00 PM, BioBat wrote:

  $40 for 100 shares of BBI isn't bad provided the company doesn't go into bankruptcy. Then 'poof'. No more shares, no profit. Then again, it's only $40 so it's not going to make or break anyone.

  But I don't think the comparison to Ford is in any way applicable. Ford stock was beaten down due to its linkage with GM and Chrysler and the overall market at the time. The company restructured its debt long before the economic crisis hit and came out of it extremely strong and has rebounded because of it. BBIs debt is swallowing it whole right now even in the midst of improved lending and it continues a downward trend in sales and revenue. There's just not much positive right now. Still, the 28 day window will give it a shot in the arm but but you still have to find a functional blockbuster store near you (since BBI doesn't have the 'new' releases in their kiosks) to really take advantage of this. That's easier said than done.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 3:46 PM, Ironbob wrote:

  What some folks don't quite get is that it only takes ONE development to turn a company around. I'm not saying this is Blockbuster's epic return but come on, you have to admit, it's pretty damn ingenious.

  I had Netflix service and I have to say, I really didn't see the value. 9.95 a month got me maybe 4 movies a month. Sorry, but that's a lousy rate. That's worse than what BBI offered 10 years ago. So in my book, it appeals to overwhelming, lazy fat asses that don't like moving off the sofa except to go to the mailbox.

  Here's a thought. It doesn't matter one iota if those who don't live near a BBI can get to a store. Blockbuster NEVER catered to them in the first place! But for those who can, why the hell not go out and rent a movie that they can get 28 days early.

  What will make or break Blockbuster isn't duking it out with Netflix but rather can they create a niche of loyal customers before they have to file for bankruptcy. That I have serious doubts about but what the heck, what's .33 a share.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 4:09 PM, SUPERMANSTOCKS wrote:

  BioBat,

  I spoke with a retailer last night about the Bluebox from BBI and they said that the machine is always busy. As a matter of a fact she stated that she had rented a couple of movies herself to take home that night. It seems if you ask me BBI will hit at least 1.00 a share. Rather if it is associated with a Chapter 7 or 11 remains to be seen. I will give it a good go. As far as Ford and BBI. Ford was bankrupt also. It was doomed and came back. I always say never count a good name out. But still I have my $40 and I will still be buying it. My only issue is that Scottrade has a hold on my cash until Friday

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 4:50 PM, SUPERMANSTOCKS wrote:

  I am in on BBI that is all I know.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 5:04 PM, Turfscape wrote:

  downpour046 wrote:

  "Simply put, when a new movie comes out in the theaters, the first weeks are when movies are seen the most. That first month is absolutely critical, not to mention the first week"

  Fallacy. For further refutation, see: Titanic; Office Space; Reservoir Dogs; more...

  Some movies live and die by the opening weekend. Some movies do not. Some DVDs will be highly sought after the day the are released, and quickly fade into obscurity. Some DVDs will live long, profitable lives without inducing a mad rush to rent on release day.

  Further, we are not far off from being rid of physical media based entertainment. DVDs will go the way off VHS, cassette tapes, records, etc.

  And, without the need for a physical deliverable, movie studios will have little need for distribution through the likes of Netflix, Blockbuster or any other provider. Once the stage is set for full streaming of entertainment (again, not far off), the studios or independent producers will have access to a direct path to the consumer for purchase or rental.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 5:36 PM, DJDynamicNC wrote:

  I really want to make a "28 Days Later" meta-movie joke here, but I am just not feeling clever.

  I am not optimistic on Blockbuster long term. There are teenagers right now who may not even know you can go to an actual physical location to rent movies. Couple that with mega-high speed internet (gets faster every year) and I think Blockbuster is on the long, slow slide into history. Might have some upswings first, but I can't imagine that big a turnaround.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 5:37 PM, WoodyDog1400 wrote:

  Anyone counting BBI out is mistaking, they are not done yet, no where close. Don't forget, the billion dollar dividend payment was the cause ,not Netflix... Restructure the debt, streamline some cost, keep improving the Blockbuster on Demand and by Mail, and you have a much better version of Netflix.

  This is SIRI a year ago. Looking forward to the same ride and $$$$.

  Be greedy when others are fearful.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 5:38 PM, DJDynamicNC wrote:

  ^^^ What Turfscape said.

  You want to invest in the movie distribution companies of the future? Apple. Maybe Amazon. Google (YouTube is a good start). Streaming data is where you want to go.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 7:29 PM, ecajoe wrote:

  Hi, it's that Blockbuster guy again. First off Netflix and Redbox agreed with Warner Bros. on this with a signed contract. Blockbuster signed an agreement with Warner Bros. as well. All three companys have different agreements with Warner Bros. Blockbuster does not and never has gone to Walmarts to buy DVDs for their stores. They all come from one distribution center in Texas. Right now this groundbreaking change in distribution is hugh. When the other Studios see what discount renters like Netflix and Redbox have done to their retail sales the cat will be out of the bag. It is just a matter of time when they all jump on this 28 day thing. Warner Bros. has figured it out and all the other Studios are looking to see how this pans out. Anyone that does not think this could be a game changer is out of their mind. Oh, and the people that write that say they are willing to wait for a new title, those people are NOT your usual renter. l am sure there are some out there but most want them now. We had several unhappy Redbox renters in our store today. Yes this might not be enough to save Blockbuster but you can be sure they will make the most of it. It's a ray of hope that has real potential.

• Report this Comment On March 24, 2010, at 11:04 PM, SUPERMANSTOCKS wrote:

  ecajoe,

  I couldn't agree more. I think we have a winner in this one. Speculative at best. I still think we can squeak at least .75- 1.10 out of this one short term

• Report this Comment On March 25, 2010, at 9:44 AM, Hokie33 wrote:

  Hey Rick,

  At first I thought no big deal on the 28 day wait. But have to report while on facebook I noticed 3 messages from the 18-24 crowd of friends that were really upset they could get Blindside from Redbox or Netflix.....

• Report this Comment On March 25, 2010, at 9:44 AM, Hokie33 wrote:

  Hey Rick,

  At first I thought no big deal on the 28 day wait. But have to report while on facebook I noticed 3 messages from the 18-24 crowd of friends that were really upset they could get Blindside from Redbox or Netflix.....

• Report this Comment On March 25, 2010, at 10:59 AM, Les6000 wrote:

  Simply put... as noted earlier, I am a Blockbuster subscriber and have thought numerous times to leave to sign up for Netflix. My family has decided we are staying with BB for now. The moment news broke concerning the "shortened" mail week became obvious to stay with BB. A movie in an envelope that is watched Friday night, can not return in the mail until the following Monday! But we can return it first thing while doing errands on Sat. morning to get ANOTHER movie to watch Sat. night. Oh, by the way, the local grocery chain Publix BB kiosk always has customers checkn' out movies when I shop for groceries.

• Report this Comment On March 25, 2010, at 1:53 PM, quaternion2 wrote:

  My opinion is Blockbuster can't survive Netflix wave. This kind of things are not going to turn Blokbuster's business model into a winner. Even if Netflix subscribers are actually getting some movies later then Blockbuster's ones, the key is in the streaming tech. Blockbuster can't afford to close the stores. I believe BB is stuck with an old business model which means higher costs and less convenience.

• Report this Comment On March 25, 2010, at 2:40 PM, nmjerry07 wrote:

  Blockbuster is a bust (pardon the pun). My local one, which happened to be one of the rare privately owned stores, went belly up and closed about 6 months ago.

  The business model of a stand alone movie rental store is dead. The better choice is Hastings, which also sells books, music, and a ton of other stuff.

• Report this Comment On March 25, 2010, at 5:15 PM, ecajoe wrote:

  It's that Blockbuster guy again. Blockbuster Franchise stores are pretty much toast. Corp. stores are under a much different inventory structure. Our agreements with the Studios allow for much better copy depth. The cost per title is also much better. Most of the stores that have closed or will close are stores that are either franchise or just not making enough money to cover overhead. There has been these stores hanging around for years. lt just makes good business sense to get rid of these stores now. Until streaming video can reach the level of HD BluRay in quality hard copy rental will be around. ln the mean time look for a much different Blockbuster store in the future. They will be around but l am sure with a twist. lf a store is in the black now, and there are many, it is not going anywhere.

• Report this Comment On March 25, 2010, at 6:09 PM, fordgirl33 wrote:

  this deal means nothing. i worked for a blockbuster FRANCHISE for almost 10 years. they DID go and buy movies at wal-mart if they had to. and even with the blockbuster "exclusive" titles a.k.a. WEINSTEIN movies (zack and miri, soul man, great debaters) the other competitors still found a way to rent them. also, the BBV stores will not have an unlimited number of copies. they will run out by Friday and then NO one will have it: not Blockbuster, not netflix, not redbox. Then everyone will be FORCED to purchase it for their home library. That is the driving point behind this agreement.. No matter how many copies BBV had, no matter which company had or didn't have it, at the peak time we needed it, all of the copies were rented and the customers were upset. this went on weekend after weekend. and at a simple suggestion these customers chose to purchase them at 4 times the rental price. that's what this agreement was penned for. was so that EVERYONE (customers), even the Blockbuster customers would end up purchasing the item. You can't rent it if it is not on the shelf. blockbuster has some serious backwards thinking in their franchises.

• Report this Comment On March 25, 2010, at 6:32 PM, SUPERMANSTOCKS wrote:

  Key word is Franchise! I can see a Franchisee buying movies at WalMart.

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 6:09 AM, rgerg wrote:

  The question is will BBI go bust? I dont think it can fold up just like that. You can only believe BBI is worthless if you didnt realize it takes a helluvah lot of skillsets to make DVD rentals work. We are talking about logistics and supply chain management that will even put firms like DHL and Toyota too shame.

  Its trading for loose change now. I am in. May take a while for it to go up. But even if it doesnt make it up. I am certain someone somewhere will see the latent value in BBI. Maybe Amazon?

  Either way its a winner. Anyone can pick a winner when its rosy. Not anyone can pick out a winner when its covered in you know what?

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 7:04 AM, verylargelarry wrote:

  I see several Blockbuster patriots are sounding the fife and drum here.

  Certainly some traders may time the market perfectly and take advantage of their fervor and the potential uptick, but this company is broke, no, buried in debt. What supplier will continue to take IOUs in lieu of cash?

  Blow your $40, but I strongly recommend you spend half on BBI and the other half on Powerball tickets. If you believe in miracles, why hold down your potential upside?

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 7:14 AM, verylargelarry wrote:

  Good news for the patriots!

  That 100-share gamble is available at a reduced cost! It costs 25% less today (3/26) as the share price has dropped to .3125. More Powerball tickets anyone?

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 9:43 AM, pllntooz wrote:

  Sandra Bullock won an Oscar?

  Huh.

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 12:15 PM, SUPERMANSTOCKS wrote:

  Im waiting to see what Monday will bring! I am thinking that If I can get a quick 10.00 out of this then I have won! Looking for .30 a share here.

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 12:18 PM, cking5634 wrote:

  Hi Everybody!

  You can avoid all this hoopla and go to your local library for DVD's. My local system already has 154 copies of Blind Side. Of course all of them are out or reserved right now, but it will calm down soon. Probably within 28 days, who knows? New releases cost $1 for 1 day and second runs and older movies/tv shows/documentaries are FREE for 7 days. We can take as many as we want. Late fine is one dollar per day. We found "Police Squad", all 6 episodes. (Sargent, Lt., Takem and Bookem!) Hilarious! No monthly fee and we can browse through the titles. Try it, you'll like it!

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 12:25 PM, cking5634 wrote:

  Hi Everybody!

  You can avoid all this hoopla and go to your local library for DVD's. My local system already has 154 copies of Blind Side. Of course all of them are out or reserved right now, but it will calm down soon. Probably within 28 days, who knows? New releases cost $1 for 1 day and second runs and older movies/tv shows/documentaries are FREE for 7 days. We can take as many as we want. Late fine is one dollar per day. We found "Police Squad", all 6 episodes. (Sargent, Lt., Takem and Bookem!) Hilarious! No monthly fee and we can browse through the titles. Try it, you'll like it!

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 1:00 PM, IverRose wrote:

  I think you have two different audiences here. I would guess the younger viewers love having the latest in entertainment. However there are thousands of us older folks who enjoy finding great movies or TV shows from the vast collection at Netflix. My husband and I are watching Tom Hanks old HBO show on the space program that we had missed. Excellent program. So was the old Firefly Series if you enjoy sci fi. We wont be changing so its a matter of numbers, are there more of us or more of them?

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 2:32 PM, SUPERMANSTOCKS wrote:

  After reviewing a 2 month daily chart we will be going as low as .27 a share. However, looking at the uptick we could go as high as .40 a share. This stock has had huge amounts of volume in the early days trading. But like the rest of the market it just sells off by the days end. My thought is the only way to make a quick but is to buy 1000 shares at a time and you should be fine. However, that does not mean you cannot make money on 100. It just might take a little longer that's all. Short you have a trading range as listed above. Long term this a extremely speculative call.

  One day chart

  http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&...

  3 month chart

  http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&...

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 3:26 PM, elefante72 wrote:

  I have had Tivo for almost 10 years. With that, I never watch a show live, and that filters through to my netflix. I tried blockbuster for a few months (they jacked up my prices and welched on returning in the store). Blockbuster has been scum suckers since day1, and will die like they should. Netflix is smart because they know the future is streaming, not physical disks. There is no reason that they can just ink a deal w/ a distributor down the road when these guys get greedy. I am sure one of them will do it. WIth that said, my queue has no less than 60 movies in it at a time. I noticed the new releases all went into the wait queue. I could care less, because I have like 60 movies to go through first. If my wife complains, I move it to #1, otherwise who cares when the release date is. My wife and I are both professionals, and we are concerned more with taxes than when a movie comes out. We will see it sooner or later.

  Netflix has way more than blockbusters on it. I have received way more satisfaction from the indie movies than the mainstreet hollywood drivel, and the same can be said for music.

  The same can be said for amazon/books. The fact remains that the distributors will ultimately be squeezed (even if they are monopolies), and will have to comply w/ market forces unless their lobbyists make every american a criminal. They will try, but ultimately fail.

  Listen, this works like every monopoly. Soak for profits as long as possible, and wait for the new market to emerge, and then apply the new regime with the old monopolistic ways.

  THe movies have longer because the barrier to entry for a movie is higher than a tune or paper article, but sooner or later CGI will catch up with them too...

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 4:48 PM, Smorgasbord1 wrote:

  Blockbuster has more serious problems, and this won't fix them. However, this month delay is, I believe, a bridge over Netflix's moat.

  The great thing about Netflix was (yes, past tense) that it was a one-stop movie subscription. I could rent new movies, old movies, hard to find movies, etc. and could get them as DVDs or instant streaming. No need to go anywhere else.

  But now I can't get some new movies. Probably won't be able to get more new movies as time goes on. That de-values the subscription in my (the consumer's) mind. Maybe instead of having 4 discs at home for $24, I'll switch to a 2 disc plan for $14 and use the money saved to rent 2-3 new releases per month via cable/satellite on-demand or Vudu or even itunes/appletv (and watch on an iPad!).

  That's revenue per subscriber lost for Netflix right now, but more importantly, it opens the door for other services (other than Blockbuster) to compete with Netflix down the road. That's not good for Netflix no matter how you slice it.

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 5:42 PM, rabec1 wrote:

  I would go out and rent the blind side if my blockbuster hadn't closed.

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 6:02 PM, tgauchat wrote:

  The completion of the evolution to non-physical media (i.e., streaming only) will be the only major game changer in this space. Forget early releases... that's a ripple in this pond.

  Netflix has a leg-up here due to their large existing customer base who they are steering towards streaming and for whom they are developing profiles.

  There are many potential threatening players in the on-demand / streaming space, however. It is too soon to tell. But BBI's execution does not give me confidence they will survive the on-demand revolution.

• Report this Comment On March 26, 2010, at 9:40 PM, ActionBastard wrote:

  I thought here on fool.com we looked beyond news and looked for the profit margin. So what if Blockbuster has access to the Blind Side. There is a pretty damn good chance that my local Blockbuster will be closed by the time I put on my shoes and drive there.

  While BBI has gone begging the studios to give them some advantage so that they can "appear fresh" its all a smoke screen for fools if you don't look at the absolutely bleak financial picture for Blockbuster. There is a reason the stock has been trading near .31 cents. The company is bleeding cash by trying to compete on so many fronts that any marginal win they get here and there isn't much more than a few more hours before Keyes and company are on the street begging for someone else to give them a few billion dollars to stay afloat.

  You want to see a real telling trend? Billionaire activist investor Icahn left the board. Given how many turds Icahn has held onto over the years and rode to the bottom, the fact that he has left this pile says more than anything else.

• Report this Comment On March 27, 2010, at 10:10 AM, MFsaut wrote:

  Many thoughtful comments. I am a Netflix subscriber and shareholder (and have done very nicely by them thank-you). I have to agree with many competing views. There are many Netflix customers who couldn't care less about this arrangement (I am one of them). There are many movies for which this won't make a big difference (Blind Side is NOT one of them - but I already saw it in the theater). There are good statistics that show that some movies do have the biggest activity within the first 4 weeks of release. Others don't. If Netflix doesn't have a movie I really can't wait to see, I do have a choice, I can go out and rent it. Is that a loss to Netflix? No. Is it a benefit to BBI, a little. But for that one rental they gained there are at least four rentals a month they lost when I went to Netflix that they will never regain. So will this be a boon for BBI and doom for NFLX? In the long run I don't think so. NFLX's biggest threat is in how the streaming market will play out and what the movie producers will do about that market. If they decide to play themselves, then NFLX would be toast.

• Report this Comment On March 27, 2010, at 3:01 PM, LurchOR wrote:

  Since the close of the mkt on 3/22 before this announcement:

  BBI still in strong downtrend and down -0.01 @ 0.31

  NFLX still in strong uptrend and up 1.41 @ 74.30

  'nuff said

• Report this Comment On March 27, 2010, at 7:29 PM, frugala wrote:

  I've done both online, Netflix is clear winner. The quantity of online Netflix is more important than getting a 6 month old movie just 1 month sooner.

• Report this Comment On March 29, 2010, at 11:23 AM, JPDemers wrote:

  I think BBI will continue to limp along for a while longer, because the studios have an interest in keeping them in business. The reason for this is that BBI is a significant outlet for DVD sales, which are very profitable for the studios. This is probably the main reason they gave BBI access to new films 28 days in advance of NFLX.

  They've created a market niche for BBI, selling and renting new releases in that artificial 28-day window, but I don't think it's a big enough business to service that mountain of debt. Bankruptcy seems inevitable. I would not be surprised to see BBI taken over by a private equity firm, bankrolled by Hollywood money -- but only after shareholders are wiped out. (Bondholders are likely to get scorched as well, though not as badly.)

• Report this Comment On March 29, 2010, at 11:27 AM, JPDemers wrote:

  I think BBI will continue to limp along for a while longer, because the studios have an interest in keeping them in business. The reason for this is that BBI is a significant outlet for DVD sales, which are very profitable for the studios. This is probably the main reason they gave BBI access to new films 28 days in advance of NFLX.

  They've created a market niche for BBI, selling and renting new releases in that artificial 28-day window, but I don't think it's a big enough business to service that mountain of debt. Bankruptcy seems inevitable. I would not be surprised to see BBI taken over by a private equity firm, bankrolled by Hollywood money -- but only after shareholders are wiped out. (Bondholders are likely to get scorched as well, though not as badly.)

• Report this Comment On March 29, 2010, at 3:00 PM, aleax wrote:

  With BBI back below 29 cents, I couldn't resist and just had a little 1000-shares fling -- after all, if I never lost a few bucks on a speculative fling once in a while, then I'm not flinging enough;-). Chance of bankruptcy is high, but then I'm only out $287; and a recovery, to 50 cents if not a full buck, is also quite possible.

  My favorite approach is to hold stocks longer, of course -- at least a year, to take advantage of low taxes on long-term capital gains (I'm close to the year-mark on a slice of my NFLX and I'll probably take my gains on it then -- right now it's priced for perfection, after all, with the market clearly indifferent to the 5-day postal week, 28-days delay, fierce competition in the digital-download future market, ... kind of scary). But a (small;-) fling once in a while, on top of larger, more prudent, longer-term approaches, is FUN, and gives me cool "war stories" to tell;-).

• Report this Comment On March 29, 2010, at 5:54 PM, verylargelarry wrote:

  Sometimes the future is clear to me, BBI Patriots.

  Today, Its down another 4%. Finished at the bottom of the range.

  Hold onto those tickets, tho.

  The Powerball tickets that is.

  Sometimes it darkest just before it goes completely black.

  Save your money, buy the Powerball!

• Report this Comment On March 29, 2010, at 8:52 PM, jlmjlm77 wrote:

  I understand that BBI plans a reverse split. Often stocks go down after a reverse split so you may want to wait until you buy some more. I own a few hundred $ worth in my retirement plan and may buy more in a few months.

• Report this Comment On March 31, 2010, at 7:40 AM, verylargelarry wrote:

  Hey Superman,

  Got a quarter a share now, did you buy at .27???

  Icahn bailed. How 'bout you?

  Still thinkin' an uptick is not gonna happen.

  Buy the Powerball!

• Report this Comment On March 31, 2010, at 8:04 AM, hiddenflem wrote:

  A lot of people here are arguing that the game has changed and people don't care about new releases anymore...well I have 2 young kids too and I feel like I've watched everything that I want to watch on netflix (I cancelled my subscription for that reason), and I feel like they never get new movies. Especially streaming! Have been really disappointed with them.

  In my perception redbox is slightly better in that regard actually-cheaper too. But one thing that this article didn't mention is that Fios has virtually all new releases on demand... so for $5 if I really am desperate to see a new movie I'll avoid going out and just do that. People still want new movies.

• Report this Comment On April 07, 2010, at 5:08 PM, jrf321 wrote:

  It seems that some of you don't realize yet that Blockbuster now has the same service as Netflix with their mailing service.

  Actually, one could argue that Blockbusters Mail-in service is better because it includes BluRay for no additional costs, and you are allotted 5 in-store exchanges which is good in those times where they don't have your movie available for the mail-in service due to a high volume of requests for a newer release, and/or you need a particular movie that evening and don't feel liking waiting a couple of days for the mailed DVD to come in. On top of that, you can return your mail-in DVDs directly to the store if you wish, which cuts down on the timing.

  So, quit making comments pretending as if $5 rental store versus Netflix mail-in, because that is no longer the case.

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