A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on members who score 100 points of market outperformance on stock picks in their first 100 days. Here we're looking at our All-Stars who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will do best next.

One of our highest-rated ones is urmoney, who sports a 99.68 member rating and is No. 222 among more than 160,000 members. Below are a few of this top member's most recent selections and how they were rated.

Source: Motley Fool CAPS; *price when call was made. Current score is how many points by which a member is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index since the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
When logic becomes disconnected from reality, you get what All-Star CAPS member UltraLong elegantly describes as a "What the [heck] Rally." Housing starts fall, legislation is passed that might reshape our economy, international finances are a shambles, jobless claims are still high, and consumer confidence is still down. So what's an investor to do? Bid up stocks even higher.

UltraLong highlights Maguire Properties as just one example of what happens when reason takes flight. "Companies like Maguire Properties can report FIVE times its market value in yearly losses and move higher."

Maguire Properties last year stopped paying the mortgage on six buildings that have loans on them totaling $885 million, all the while accruing interest at a 5% rate. It also had $125 million in debt that was scheduled to mature in May, but with the sale of one of its buildings, Maguire has been relieved of that burden. While it has paid down its debt to just $3.4 billion (from $5 billion two years ago), it has just $218 million in cash in the bank. Yes, by all means, let's bid the shares up.

Of course, Maguire Properties is not alone. Commercial real estate remains a desperate place, and even where there are bright spots, the real estate investment trusts investing there look dour. Hotels, for example, look poised for a recovery. Starwood Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: HOT) recently reported decent earnings, but Sunstone Hotel Investors (NYSE: SHO) stopped paying the mortgage on more than a dozen hotel properties it owned and gave them back to the banks that held the notes. Fitting nicely into UltraLong's thesis, Sunstone's shares are up almost 25% over the past month.

Spring has sprung
At least for mortgage insurer Radian Group, delinquencies rose at a slower rate. Management says it was also able to improve its liquidity position, which ought to keep it out of the trouble Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK) finds itself in. Radian's rival might have to seek bankruptcy protection after regulators seized some of its assets.

Although almost 40% of the CAPS members who have rated it pick Radian Group to underperform the market, the company has surprised many All-Stars with its resilience. Member Toprope101 is expecting the ride to get bumpy again.

Share your thoughts on what might happen on the Radian Group CAPS page.

Start it up
At one time, there was a fear that ViroPharma would just be a one-trick pony. Sequenom (Nasdaq: SQNM) held similar fears for its investors because of its troubled Down syndrome test, but its MassARRAY technology is proving to be multifaceted.

ViroPharma ended up buying a pipeline with its acquisition of Lev Pharmaceuticals, and while its treatment for a rare swelling disorder hasn't generated the same sort of revenues colitis treatment Vancocin did -- at least not yet -- Cinryze looks to be a winner nonetheless. Sales are expected to run as high as $175 million this year, ahead of previous guidance of $145 million to $165 million. And with its application being accepted in Europe, the company is looking to expand its sales internationally.

That could be why more than 1,200 CAPS members, or 98% of those who've expressed an opinion, have rated the biopharmaceutical to outperform the market averages. Even Wall Street analysts are almost unanimous in their opinion that ViroPharma is ready to soar.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. It's free to sign up, so why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?