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Restaurants Give Investors Indigestion

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While some restaurant stocks posted delicious results last week, Panera Bread's (Nasdaq: PNRA  ) and Buffalo Wild Wings' (Nasdaq: BWLD  ) latest earnings may now prompt investors to reach for the antacid.

Half baked?
To its credit, Panera did deliver rising amounts of bread. First-quarter net income increased 48%, to $25.8 million, or $0.82 per share. Total revenue increased 14%, to $364.2 million. Same-store sales for company-owned locations also jumped a staggering 10%. That increase included transaction growth of 3.5% and average check growth of 6.5%. Panera raised prices by 2%.

If Panera's share price today implies that investors have lost their stomach for the stock, that's probably because the company warned that second-quarter earnings will miss analysts' expectations. Panera expects $0.81-$0.83 per share, while analysts had forecast earnings of $0.84 per share.

Wild disappointment
Alas, investors' dismay with Panera today is just a walk in the park compared with the woes of Buffalo Wild Wings. Last time I checked, its shares were down nearly 20%.

Buffalo Wild Wings' first-quarter net income increased 24.5%, to $10.6 million, or $0.58 per share. Total revenue didn't look too shabby, either, up 15.7%. However -- and here's the bummer -- its same-store sales were flat.

Apparently, April is the cruelest month, at least for Buffalo Wild Wings. In the company's press release, CEO Sally Smith explained that April same-store sales are down 3.7% thus far at company-owned locations, and 2.4% at franchised restaurants. Investors probably feel a bit chilled by Smith's declaration that Buffalo Wild Wings' 20% earnings growth goal "may be achievable," provided it can get same-store sales growth going again and secure moderate wing prices.

No thanks, I'm stuffed
Last week, results from McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) , Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX  ) , and Chipotle (NYSE: CMG  ) all gave investors a hearty appetite. Too bad Panera and Buffalo Wild Wings couldn't keep up.

The negativity surrounding Panera seems like an overreaction; its guidance may fall a tiny bit short of analysts' expectations, but it still represents impressive 25%-28% earnings growth. Bear in mind, though, that premium-priced stocks like Panera and Buffalo Wild Wings tend to get slammed by the slightest whiff of negativity. Even with today's haircut, Panera still trades at 27 times trailing earnings -- not exactly traditional value territory.

On the other hand, caution may be in order on Buffalo Wild Wings. Its shares got slammed last quarter, too, and its slowdown in comps seems fairly ominous. Last year this time, its aggressive expansion plan looked like a dubious move amid recession; now, that plan appears to be backfiring. Today's stock slide has discounted Buffalo Wild Wings to a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.

In contrast, a more reasonably priced stock like McDonald's has been an excellent performer, but only trades at 17 times earnings.

Is it time to buy Panera or Buffalo Wild Wings? Or would you rather load up on a less expensive stock like McDonald's? Sound off in the comment box below.

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Buffalo Wild Wings and Chipotle are Motley Fool Hidden Gems picks. Chipotle is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation. Starbucks is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor choice. The Fool owns shares of Chipotle. Try any of our Foolish newsletters free for 30 days.

Alyce Lomax owns shares of Starbucks. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On April 28, 2010, at 4:51 PM, Patbubblebuster wrote:

    Hello as a fan of Panera Bread and a weekly user,I would like to point out a couple of things.One some of their success has come at the expense of more service and higher priced restaurants,no tip needed at Panera Bread helps out also.however latly i noticed alot of customers staying longer using the free Wi-fi and buying small menu items while taking up table space.Many of these people are the unemployed and under-employed with aloy of time on their hands.It has gotten so bad that people sit in the parking lot and use the free Wi-fi and buy nothing.I feel that our economy is due for the second shoe to drop and places like the Panera Bread could suffer a summer slump.A few articles I have read recently point out people are spending money now because of the pent-up demand and the people born between 1980-1990 who make up a good deal of the slacker crowd and Panera Breads customers now spend money without any income.this can only go on so long and combined with a high P/E and too mant stores could spell doom for Panera bread if not doom bad times.

  • Report this Comment On April 28, 2010, at 5:56 PM, kayakmastr wrote:

    Finally a BWLD appeared in my neighborhood. So check it out! I did and immediately sold my stock in BWLD. The diner across the street has better wings, better sauces, better service, and better ambiance. So unless you are a sports bar freak, there is no appeal. At least for this one example on Long Island.

  • Report this Comment On May 06, 2010, at 1:35 PM, candisstock wrote:

    I am so conflicted about Panera. I am not conflicted at all about BWLD.

    BWLD is pretty nice for a one time shot. My 17 yo son loves the really spicy wings. But he likes to eat hot sauce. On bread. :( As a 57 year old suburban woman, BWLD doesn't do it for me. It's too loud, too noisy, and I can't carry on any kind of conversation. It's not a 'linger' restaurant for me.

    Now Panera on the other hand really rocks for me.

    The music is predictable (hmm, it's jazz....must be 3:30). The value is totally there for me as far as the quality of the food and the ambience. Of couse the unlimited coffee doesn't hurt one little bit.

    I bought PNRA when it was around 35. (Wheeee! I am an investment genius!............Today.)

    In my neighborhood, Panera has a very loyal crowd of people that keep coming. I know of one group that has met there every Friday for over 10 years for coffee and bagels.

    Panera is almost the Micky D's of the non-Micky D's set. Fast, inexpensive, reliable, good food.

    I think PNRA is going to just keep on going on for years and years. In fact, I wonder occassionally who would buy it.

    But here is why I am conflicted. What is it's short term outlook? Is it too high? Does it really matter about the short term outlook? It's hard to pass up a company with little or no debt that is doing quite respectably. The profit margin is actually going up! Pre-tax profit, sales, and EPS are going up.

    But with the current market (down 3 straight days) it's hard not to get worried.

    I would appreciate any comments or your thoughts about Panera.

    Thanks and have a profitable day.

    Candis

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:00 PM
PNRA $147.11 Down -0.08 -0.05%
Panera Bread CAPS Rating: ****
BWLD $85.41 Up +0.25 +0.29%
Buffalo Wild Wings CAPS Rating: ****
SBUX $54.56 Down -0.20 -0.37%
Starbucks CAPS Rating: ***
MCD $91.05 Down -0.48 -0.52%
McDonald's Corp CAPS Rating: *****
CMG $400.42 Down -1.19 -0.30%
Chipotle Mexican G… CAPS Rating: **

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